1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda decreased. At the beginning of the week, the market price in Shandong was 802.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price in Shandong was 785 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 2.18%, and the price increased by 60.2% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices fell this week. The overall start-up of caustic soda is high and the inventory is sufficient. At present, the liquid caustic soda shows a downward trend. The main reason for the downward trend is that the liquid caustic soda inventory of the main alumina plant in Shandong, the main production area, is sufficient and the demand for caustic soda is general. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 700-830 yuan / ton. The purchase price of liquid alkali was lowered in the alumina market, and the price of liquid alkali was lowered due to insufficient downstream support.

Downstream: the alumina support in the downstream of caustic soda is insufficient. At present, alumina enterprises generally purchase caustic soda and constantly exert pressure on caustic soda. The demand for alumina is general, and the shipment of caustic soda enterprises is general.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the 48th week of 2021 (11.29-12.3), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 5 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities falling. The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 6.69%), light soda (- 5.54%) and PVC (- 2.71%). The average rise and fall this week was – 3.36%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the overall transaction of caustic soda is weak, the alumina downstream of caustic soda is mainly purchased on demand, the shipment of caustic soda is general, and the market transaction is weak. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be weak in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

At present, the latest quotation of ethylene oxide industrial chain: the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 7700 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous trading day.

Upstream ethylene continued to decline slightly, and the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was USD 1060 / T, down $20 / T from the price of the previous trading day; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is US $1045 / ton, and the quotation of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today is 7800 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous trading day. Affected by the decline of raw materials, the loss of ethylene oxide was reduced. According to the latest external price, ethylene oxide is currently at a loss of 100 yuan / ton.

The overall performance of the downstream polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer is flat. The distribution quotation of Linyi Ruihang (Sanjiang monomer) hPEG today is 8800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of Hubei Lingan hPEG is 9300 yuan / ton, and the price of TPEG is 9600 yuan / ton; The price of domestic hPEG of Shanghai Dongda chemical monomer is 9200 yuan / ton, and the price of imported TPEG is 9500 yuan / ton.

During the week, the market is still worth mentioning the situation of Zhenhai Refining and chemical industry. Shangyu Industrial Park bears the brunt of the outbreak in Shangyu area. Zhenhai Refining and chemical EO cut eg and increased the eg start from 70% to full load. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the impact of epidemic prevention, logistics and other factors. Although the supply of ethylene oxide in East China was slightly tightened and the number of people taking delivery in North China increased compared with the previous period, the upstream ethylene price continued to decline slowly, which also depressed the ethylene oxide Market at the cost side, and the downstream profit space was thin. In addition, the demand side remained depressed, the manufacturers’ production enthusiasm was weakened, and some manufacturers reduced the load. Overall, ethylene oxide Market is more likely to remain stable.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (December 9): 15733.33 yuan / ton

The acrylic acid market fell on December 9, down 6.72% compared with the previous trading day and 11.11% compared with the price on November 9. At present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is limited, the supply side is sufficient, the downstream receiving enthusiasm is weak, the procurement is mainly on demand, and the focus of market negotiation is downward.

It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be dominated by weakness in the short term.

Market price of domestic main hydrogenated benzene Market on December 8 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, December 1, price, rise and fall

East China, 6400 ～ 6450., 0

Shandong Province, 6000 ~ 6100,0

On November 29, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton and 6450 yuan / ton was implemented. Others: Dongming Petrochemical offers 6200 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 6150 yuan / ton, and Jincheng Petrochemical offers 6300 yuan / ton; Weilian chemical offers 6303 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 6300 yuan / ton and Hongrun Petrochemical 6350 yuan / ton.

International oil prices rose sharply for two consecutive trading days. On December 7, WTI crude oil futures in the United States continued to rise, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $72.05/barrel, up US $2.56 or 3.7%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures at US $75.44/barrel, up US $2.36 or 3.2%. Last week, oil prices plummeted due to panic over the mutant virus Omicron. At present, the market’s concerns about the impact of Omicron on global demand have been further alleviated; In addition, the U.S. – Iran nuclear negotiations have encountered obstacles, and it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the market in the near future, which provides support for oil prices.

Crude oil rebounded sharply, giving a good boost to related commodities. In terms of pure benzene, the lower reaches of Shandong were bargain hunting, the enterprise shipped better, and the price rebounded to around 6300 yuan / ton. On Tuesday, Shanxi datu River auctioned 4960 yuan / ton, setting the tone of slight fluctuation in the bidding price of crude benzene this week. The price of raw materials is strong, the profits of benzene hydrogenation enterprises are poor, and the enthusiasm to start operation is low. Basically, it is boosted by crude oil, the market information is slightly improved, the price of pure benzene is slightly warmer, and it is expected to maintain a slight shock trend in the short term.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: 1896 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate was stable on December 7, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today’s ammonium sulfate Market has limited new orders, mainly on the sidelines. Downstream on-demand procurement, no significant improvement on the demand side. At present, there is no clear guidance in the market, waiting for the release of the news, and there is little fluctuation in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to demand side changes.

Future forecast: the price of ammonium sulfate will be stable in the short term.

Acetic anhydride market fell sharply on December 6

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply on December 6, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. On December 6, the price of acetic anhydride was 10900.00 yuan / ton, down 4.60% from 11425 yuan / ton on December 3 of the previous trading day. Affected by the decline of raw materials, acetic anhydride market fell sharply.

Acetic anhydride cost down

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid was weak and temporarily stable on December 6. The price of acetic acid on December 6 was 6250 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with the price of acetic acid on December 3 of the previous trading day, and decreased by 5.16% compared with 6590 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid fell, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride decreased, which was bad for the acetic anhydride market. The rising power of acetic anhydride in the future market weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Market overview and future forecast

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, on December 6, the price of acetic anhydride raw material acetic anhydride fell, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the inventory of acetic anhydride was low, there were many wait-and-see purchases in the downstream, the market turnover was cold, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after falling this week. On November 26, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11000-11240 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On December 3, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9300-10300 yuan / ton, down 16.82% from last week, up 16.88% from the beginning of the year and up 20.7% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: affected by the newly discovered new crown variant strain, the price of crude oil continued to fall, the external market lacked confidence, and the price fell. The price of crude oil and styrene fell, and the price of pure benzene continued to fall this week. Due to inventory pressure in Shandong, prices have been lowered continuously, and the price difference between East China and Shandong has widened. During the week, low-cost goods from Shandong flowed into East China, which suppressed the market atmosphere in East China, and the market as a whole was weak. On Friday (December 3), the price of pure benzene was 6100-6450 yuan / ton (the average price was 6310 yuan / ton), and the average price decreased by 360 yuan / ton or 5.4% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 46.54%.

This week, the price ladder of nitric acid fell and the price fell broadly. On Friday (December 3), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2350 yuan / ton, down 10.19% from last week and up 23.68% from the same period last year. Nitric acid market production exceeds sales, and the quotation declines.

Raw material pure benzene and nitric acid continue to decline, and the cost support is difficult to maintain. Last week, a 100000 t / a unit in Jinling was restarted. At present, the operating rate in Shandong is normal and the supply is loose; This week, Yantai Wanhua aniline entered the market, the supply in East China increased, the shipping mood of the industry was strong, and the price continued to fall. This week, the high-end execution contract and low-end delivery of aniline coexisted in East China. Downstream purchasing has improved, but the mentality is still cautious.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene: there are still ships arriving at subsequent ports, and the inventory continues to increase; Bargain hunting in the downstream and the market atmosphere picked up; Crude oil and styrene fluctuated steadily. Overall, it is expected that the consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week. Nitric acid: raw material support is insufficient, nitric acid market demand is poor, and enterprise inventory pressure is high.

The supply side of aniline Market is loose, the downstream demand maintains rigid demand, and the trend of cost side is moderate. Generally speaking, aniline consolidation is the main trend next week, and there is room for inventory decline. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 2, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8366 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 28 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9433 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1067 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.31%.

This week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell sharply, and the focus of on-site transactions continued to decline. Since the beginning of the week, affected by the sharp decline in international oil prices, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the field was calm, the confidence of operators was frustrated, and the offer price of n-butanol factory was weakly lowered. On the 29th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 8700-9100 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from the end of last week. The downstream users of n-butanol have a strong wait-and-see mood and are cautious in preparing goods. They mainly digest the raw materials in the early stage, and the support on the demand side is weak. The n-butanol market continues to run downward. At the same time, the n-butanol inventory also gradually accumulates. Near the weekend, the n-butanol factory in Shandong has a strong willingness to ship goods, and the offer price has been greatly reduced again. On December 2, The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the average price is 8366 yuan / ton, with a maximum decline of 800 yuan / ton in a single day and 11.31% in a week. At present, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is still, and the procurement is mainly to maintain rigid demand.

In terms of index, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) on December 1 was 72.83, down 0.81 points from yesterday, down 44.74% from 131.79 points (2021-05-16), and up 143.66% from 29.89 points, the lowest point on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene, this week, the domestic propylene market in Shandong showed a decline as a whole. The overall trading atmosphere in the venue is general. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of December 2, the average ex factory price of propylene in Shandong was 7475 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.45% compared with the beginning of this week. On December 1, the propylene commodity index was 61.60, down 0.61 points from yesterday, down 38.92% from the highest point of 100.85 points in the cycle (September 7, 2011), and up 88.21% from the lowest point of 32.73 points on September 29, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream performance of n-butanol is still calm, and the effective support of n-butanol market is insufficient. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, Shandong n-butanol market is weak and needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand.

In November, the phenol market was depressed after falling, and under the restriction of demand, the phenol market has been adjusting in a weak range in the middle and late ten days. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol in China was 9580 yuan / ton on November 1, and 9212 yuan / ton on November 30, a decrease of 3.84% in the month. As of the end of the month, the offers of major mainstream markets were as follows: 9200 yuan / ton in East China, 9200-9250 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, and 9200 yuan / ton in South China.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Monthly K column chart of ex factory price in East China

In early November, pure benzene maintained a range shock trend; It began to fall continuously in the latter ten days, and the price width weakened. On November 1, the price was 7550-7803 yuan / ton (the average price was 7640 yuan / ton); On November 30, the price was 6150-6650 yuan / ton (the average price was 6390 yuan / ton), the highest price of this month appeared on November 1, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on November 30, the price was 6390 yuan / ton. This month decreased by 16.36%, up 52.51% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest price in the month was 1250 yuan / ton. Affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, the pure benzene market mentality continued to be suppressed in the first half of the month, with the trend dominated by weak shocks. It is expected that the downstream units will restart and new units will be put into operation, the supply and demand side is expected to be good, and the market price support psychology still exists. In the last ten days, the decline of crude oil expanded, styrene maintained a continuous downward trend, and the upstream and downstream support of pure benzene was weak. In terms of supply, the load of a large unit in East China is increased, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in December; The arrival of cargo at East China port is concentrated, and the inventory rises rapidly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise in the later stage. Multiple bad news superimposed, and the price of pure benzene fell rapidly. The price of Sinopec remained stable in the first half of this month, and the price was reduced four times in the second half of this month, from 1150 yuan / ton to 6350-6450 yuan / ton.

In November, the overall performance of propylene market was more than enough, and the price was pushed up several times, but it was finally weak. At the beginning of the month, due to the sharp decline of international oil prices, the price of propylene accelerated to fall. At the same time, the overall downstream demand was general and the demand support was insufficient. After falling prices at the beginning of the month, propylene prices rebounded slightly in the second week, and then began to stabilize. However, there was no obvious positive factor support in the market, the price loosened and began to fluctuate and fall. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, lack of new orders, lack of downstream gas, and just need. The price of upstream raw materials has declined as a whole. Under the constraints of cost and demand, the price of enterprises has been continuously reduced in order to ship goods smoothly.

From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has maintained a stable trend.

market region Enterprise name Capacity (phenol / acetone) Proportion Device dynamics

North China Beijing yanshan petrochemical 16/10 15.9% 100%

Tianjin Zhongsha Tianjin 22/13 100%

Shandong region doy Lihua yiweiyuan 22/13 9.1% 100%

Northeast China Heilongjiang Blue Star Harbin 9.5/5.5 7.6% 90%

Jilin Jilin Petrochemical 9/5 100%

East China Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical 15/9 47.9% 100%

Ningbo Taihua 30/18 50% of construction starts within the month

Jiangsu Shiyou (Yangzhou) 20/12 After November 10, the project will be started with full load

Jiangsu Changshu Changchun 30/18 Increase the negative to 90% in the middle of the year

Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui 25/15 100%

Shanghai Cissa (Shanghai) 25/15 The construction started at 90%

South China Guangdong Huizhou Zhongxin 18/12 19.5%

Guangdong CNOOC shell 22/13 70% operation

The downstream bisphenol a market rose and fell frequently, and the overall focus decreased greatly compared with the previous month. According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic bisphenol a market offered 18500 yuan / ton on November 1 and 16800 yuan / ton on November 30. In the market of bisphenol A, the auction price in East China was lower and the market confidence was severely damaged after the second half of the market. Although factories began to sell at a price of 17600 yuan / ton, the market was still in a downward trend. After that, the factory adjusted its price to 17000 yuan / ton to keep up with the market. The trading firm followed the market, and the market was stable at 16700 yuan / ton. In December, the domestic bisphenol a supply is expected to increase, and the start-up of new units is worthy of attention. The business society expects that the bisphenol a market is cautious in December, and the range is expected to be properly sorted and operated. For details, pay attention to the domestic factories and downstream demand.

From the perspective of business society, the domestic phenol market was mainly sorted and operated in December, and the downstream bisphenol A was newly put into operation in December. The new production capacity was mostly connected with Sinopec in the early stage, which had limited impact on the phenol Market and it was difficult to greatly improve the terminal. Business society expects the phenol Market to be adjusted and operated in December.

Data monitoring shows that polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, ionic degree of 10-30) in China has continued to decline slightly in recent two days (28-30 days). The mainstream market price on the 28th was about 18025 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 18000 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.14% on the second day. Recently, the macro level continues to be short, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the manufacturer’s price continues to adjust slightly.

From the perspective of industry, crude oil has fallen sharply since this month, the price of petrochemical raw materials has continued to decline, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment has decreased; Although the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products continued to adjust slightly, and the adjustment range of polyacrylamide market in November was small, only about 1.37%.

As shown in the figure above, the market of raw material acrylonitrile has rebounded slightly recently, maintaining at about 15700 yuan / ton; It is reported that the recent startup rate of manufacturers is the lowest in the year, and the main manufacturers have concentrated accidental maintenance of devices in the fourth quarter, and the output has not increased significantly as scheduled. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. At present, Sinopec East China implements 15100 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last month.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid stopped falling and rose in the past two days. As of the 30th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 17000 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from 16866.67 yuan / ton on the 28th. The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is slightly weak, the inventory of production plants is low, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stabilized in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

As for the future, crude oil fell sharply, the macro level continued to weaken, the price of raw materials decreased, the market support was insufficient, and the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in the continued weak trend of polyacrylamide; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the macro weak environment, the polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term.