According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend was strong in early January, and the spot prices of various brands rose slightly. As of January 7, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8260.00 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.60% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, the price of propylene (Shandong) increased significantly this week, and the manufacturer’s offer continued to rise. As of Friday, the propylene price in Shandong market was 7800-7850 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton from last weekend. The production of the enterprise is stable, the inventory is in the middle, and the delivery of goods remains stable. The price of propylene raw material rose strongly, the offer of propylene pushed up, and the downstream acceptance was acceptable.

In the upstream, propylene raw material prices have risen, dynamic coal has been operating at a low level recently, international crude oil prices have risen, and PP cost support has strengthened as a whole. In terms of supply, the supply of PP was abundant this week, and the operating rate of the industry was stable. At the end of last month, the extent of two barrels of oil going to the warehouse was acceptable. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises have the demand for goods preparation before the festival, and the on-site trading has warmed up, but there is still great resistance to the delivery of goods from high price sources. The low-end offer of merchants has been raised, and the high-price offer is still not smooth.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of January 7, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8266.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is + 1.85%, and the rise and fall range over the same period last year is – 0.20%. Recently, there is also a demand for pre Festival stock of PP fiber materials. The consumption of end products is large, stable and small. The operating rate of the main downstream non-woven enterprises is maintained at more than 50%. The production of PP enterprises is about to enter the holiday schedule, and the demand will gradually decline in the later stage. It is expected that the recent fiber material market may continue to rise steadily due to the benefit of cost side.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market operated weakly and stably this week. As of January 7, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9516.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the field is sufficient, and dilution has a pulling effect on the spot market of meltblown cloth. The saturation pattern of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. It is heard that there is still capacity transfer out this month and other brands of PP. the industry competition is strong and the spot price is difficult to rise.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market rose in early January, the dynamic coal market fluctuated, the crude oil rose, and the cost side generally boosted the spot price of PP. Terminal enterprises are in the pre holiday stock demand, and the on-site trading is OK, but the stock preparation process is about to enter the second half. It is expected that the PP market may still have a limited increase in the short term.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (January 6): 13533.33 yuan / ton

The acrylic acid market rose on January 6, up 0.74% compared with the previous trading day and down 19.76% compared with the price on December 6. Recently, the market price of raw material propylene has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, and the market inquiry and transaction have increased, pushing up the atmosphere.

It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term.

Price: the domestic phenol market continues the upward trend, and the negotiation reference in East China is 10900-11000 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: the price of phenol plants continues to rise by 500-700 yuan / ton, and the quotation of domestic plants is 10600-10800 yuan / ton. At present, the on-site supply is still tight. On the 5th, the opening of major mainstream markets rose sharply. At present, the downstream bisphenol A also rose by 2000 yuan / ton for several consecutive days. The upstream crude oil pure benzene continued to rise. When both upstream and downstream are positive, the phenol market continued to open high and rise. The business society expects that at present, the downstream participation is cautious, mainly just need inquiry, and there are few actual orders. In the short term, it pays attention to the progress of actual orders, and the cost transmission is related to the downstream acceptance.

The phenol offers in the national markets closed on the previous working day are as follows:

region ., Quotation, Fluctuation range

East China 10900-11000 five hundred and fifty

Shandong region 10800-10900 five hundred and fifty

Surrounding areas of Yanshan 10800-10850 five hundred

South China 10900-11000 five hundred

Average price trend of national mainstream market

Price: the domestic phenol market continues the upward trend, and the negotiation reference in East China is 10400-10450 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: the phenol market continues to push up. Traders offer another 350-400 yuan / ton, with the intention of 10400-10450 yuan / ton. The push up sentiment remains unabated. The short-term import supply is still tight. Today, some factories in East China added 100 yuan / ton. Traders have a positive attitude and the offer pushed up.

The phenol offers in the national markets closed on the previous working day are as follows:

region ., offer

Up and down, East China ten thousand and four hundred three hundred and fifty

Shandong region ten thousand two hundred and fifty one hundred and fifty

Surrounding areas of Yanshan ten thousand two hundred and fifty two hundred

South China ten thousand four hundred and fifty one hundred

Average price trend of national mainstream market

I Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of PS brand 525 was 9266 yuan / ton at the beginning of this year, and the average price of PS brand 525 was 10100 yuan / ton at the end of this year. The price increased by 8.99% in 2021.

II quotations analysis

At the beginning of January, PS petrochemical manufacturers continued to reduce the price, and the merchants were not confident enough to continue to maintain the profit transfer operation. However, with the continuous rise of styrene and the superposition of downstream and middlemen entering the market to copy the bottom or prepare goods before the festival, the trading atmosphere on the site is active, the inventory of PS petrochemical manufacturers decreases, and some of them queue up to pick up the goods, boosting the merchants’ price sales. However, the market increase is limited near the Spring Festival. During the Spring Festival, the US gold price of styrene soared, and the spot price rose rapidly after the festival. PS petrochemical manufacturers increased sharply, which boosted traders to actively pursue the rise. The offer of low-end benzene permeable materials once rose to 11000 yuan / ton and above.

Turning to the middle and lower of May, styrene fell sharply, highlighting the contradiction between supply and demand of modified benzene, which opened the decline trend. Due to the shortage of supply caused by the reduction of production by enterprises, the overall price focus fluctuated limited, or even slightly strengthened, and modified benzene showed a different trend. With the continuous decline of styrene and weak demand, permethene and modified benzene have formed a unified downward market again since mid June. However, an enterprise in Jiangsu stopped due to an accident, and the supply of low-end materials and goods was expected to be tight. In late June, the PS market rose slightly.

From January to June 2021, the theoretical average profit of domestic GPPS petrochemical manufacturers was 409 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1166 yuan / ton or 74.03% compared with 1575 yuan / ton in the same period last year; The theoretical average profit of hips petrochemical manufacturers was 2609 yuan / ton, an increase of 803 yuan / ton or 44.46% compared with 1806 yuan / ton in the same period last year. The profit of GPPS decreased greatly and the profit of hips increased greatly, which once made the monthly output of modified benzene reach a new high.

From January to June 2021, the cumulative domestic GPPS output was about 869400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 42600 tons, an increase of 5.15%; The cumulative output of hips in China was about 687000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 186900 tons, an increase of 37.37%.

In the second half of the year, Ningbo Liwan, Shandong Yuhuang, Shandong Lanhua, Shandong Doyle, Huizhou Renxin phase II, Zhejiang Yisu phase I and Qingdao Bay will be put into operation successively, increasing the shipping pressure of PS enterprises; On the demand side, domestic demand growth is insufficient, export orders are difficult to be significantly improved, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. In the third quarter, styrene may still be supported by the cost side, and the supply and demand of new units put into operation in the fourth quarter weakened. Under the situation of aggravating the contradiction between supply and demand, the guidance to PS market is limited.

III Future forecast

At present, the PS cost support is strong and the market low transaction is OK, but the pressure of increasing supply still exists. Ningbo Liwan line 2 is put into operation, Ningbo Ineos benzene collar is restarted, CITIC is increased to 6 through 2, or the hedging cost is good, and the overall stabilization and consolidation is expected. It is expected that the PS price will be mainly stabilized and consolidated in the short term.

Aluminum prices stopped falling and recovered in December

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20370 yuan / ton on December 31, up 7.78% from 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1).

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. At the peak of this year (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 124240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 15.97% recently. Based on the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021), the cumulative increase was 29.53%.

Price rise motivation

In December, the domestic aluminum price was significantly driven by the external market, especially affected by the continuous fermentation of the European energy crisis and the news of production reduction of many aluminum plants in Europe. Although the short-term growth of LNG imports from the United States to Europe partially alleviated the market’s concerns about European supply.

European energy problems have tightened the supply of aluminum in Europe, and European aluminum enterprises have begun to gradually formulate shutdown plans. According to estimates, the current shutdown scale is expected to be 500000-600000 tons, and the potential production reduction scale is as high as more than 2 million tons. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the tightening of supply caused by European energy problems will lead to the further expansion of the shutdown scale of European aluminum enterprises. According to IAI data, the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Europe accounts for 11% of the global total capacity, and 26% of the overseas aluminum smelting capacity except China. According to CRU data, in Q4 of 2021, nearly 2.4 million tons of aluminum smelters in Europe will be powered by natural gas.

At home, the market has good expectations for the improvement of domestic real estate demand. According to the data of aluminum ingot destocking, the recent consumption is good. Although the cost support is weakened, the aluminum ingot price is still likely to continue to rise under the expectation of continuous destocking trend and weak overseas supply. Recently, attention has been paid to the market’s tolerance for seasonal accumulation after the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream operating rate moves down and the end consumption decreases.

On December 30, 2021, the domestic crude benzene price was 5597 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.61% over the previous day.

International crude oil prices rose on December 29. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $76.56/barrel, up US $0.58 or 0.76%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $79.21/barrel, up US $0.54 or 0.69%. Oil prices reached the highest closing record in the last five weeks, and the inventory data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) were positive, showing that the inventory of US crude oil and refined oil fell last week, overshadowing the concern that the rapid spread of Omicron may reduce demand.

Crude oil rebounded sharply, giving a good boost to related commodities. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene to 7000 yuan / ton. Boost the downstream hydrobenzene market. The bidding price of crude benzene increased this week, and 5640 ~ 5645 yuan / ton was implemented in Shandong.

The rise of crude oil and pure benzene drives the recovery of hydrogenated benzene market, the expectation of enterprise commencement is boosted, and the demand for crude benzene is recovered. The future market mainly focuses on the trend of crude oil and pure benzene.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (December 29): 6180 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the price trend of acetic acid is stable, the market continues to wait and see, the inventory of domestic acetic acid enterprises is rational, the downstream market just needs to be purchased, the enterprise shipment is smooth, the quotation continues to be stable, and the market supply and demand performance remains balanced. After the recovery of Nanjing Yangzi Bibi acetic acid installation in the later stage, the market supply will increase. At present, the field operators hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be stable and wait-and-see, and pay attention to the market supply.

The market situation of ammonium chloride continued to be stable. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic ammonium chloride dry ammonium was 1095 yuan / ton on the 28th, which was stable compared with the previous day. Since December, the price of raw liquid ammonia has been weak, the cost has a weakening trend, and the impact on ammonium chloride is empty. Urea prices have rebounded recently. Recently, with the impact of printing standards again, urea has a bullish atmosphere and has certain psychological support for ammonium chloride. However, the downstream demand is still weak, and the ammonium chloride market is weak as a whole.

It is predicted that the demand side is weak and the cost side is low, but the short-term rebound of urea price is supported. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 27): 18333.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, the refrigerant R22 market temporarily operated stably on December 27. Recently, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid has been temporarily stable, while the price of chloroform has increased. With the cost support, the price of R22 is low, and the offer of enterprises has increased slightly. So far, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is about 12700 yuan / ton, and the price of chloroform is about 3900 yuan / ton, R22 market quotation remains at 16000-18000 yuan / ton.

R22 market is expected to run stably for the time being.