The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on April 11 was 5100 yuan / ton, down 0.33% from the previous trading day and 4.08% year-on-year.

Oil prices continued to fall today, and cost support weakened. The domestic dynamic clearing policy and anti epidemic sealing and control measures will inevitably make people face large-scale and long-term sealing and control. It is expected that the demand is weak and the logistics is limited. The production cost of textile enterprises is under pressure, the comprehensive starting load of looms is declining, and the output of polyester factories is also reduced. As of April 11, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.057 million tons, an increase of 86500 tons, an increase of 8.91%, and 62500 tons, an increase of 6.28%, compared with last Thursday. The port continued to accumulate inventory.

Forecast: the bearish atmosphere is strong and remains low.

The domestic aggregate MDI market declined in a narrow range, mainly because the terminal demand is still weak, and some regions basically maintain the rigid demand for small orders. Traders offer scarce, more bearish outlook. The lower reaches saw the downturn of the market and increased the atmosphere of inquiry, but the transaction was rare.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from April 2 to 8, the domestic aggregate MDI market price fell from 19316 yuan / ton to 19200 yuan / ton, with a weekly price decline of 0.60%, a month on month increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of April 8:

Region, Wanhua, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 19000-19200 yuan / ton, 18800-19000 yuan / ton

East China, 19300-19400 yuan / ton, 18900-19200 yuan / ton

South China, 19100-19200 yuan / ton, 18800-19000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of April 8:

Raw material pure benzene: affected by the increase of domestic pure benzene maintenance units, the decline of output and the expected reduction of arrival in April, the subsequent supply of pure benzene will be reduced as a whole. The main downstream styrene still has expected shutdown devices, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to continue to decline.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: domestic aniline maintains a high consolidation pattern. The aniline plant has reduced the load, the long and short news on the supply side is common, the sentiment of downstream and traders tends to be cautious, and the purchase is biased towards rigid demand.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally and has a maintenance plan in May; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may still be dominated by shock consolidation.

The price of nitrile was 2440 yuan / ton, up 25% compared with that of the previous day. On the one hand, Lanhua nitrile plant is shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. On the other hand, although the price of raw material acrylonitrile fluctuated at a low level, the price of butadiene remained high, the cost side continued to support, and the market offer was firm.

Future forecast: there is little pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber, coupled with higher costs and tight supply expectations in the later stage, nitrile rubber is expected to be strong at a high level in the later stage.

Zinc price rose on April 6

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on April 6, and the zinc market recovered. On April 6, the zinc price was 27400 yuan / ton, up 1.95% from 26876 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with 2021, the price of zinc increased by 24.47% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenished the warehouse, and the zinc price rose, but the demand of zinc ingot spot market was weak due to the epidemic; The zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market decreased, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the supply and demand of zinc market were weak.

Future forecast

Both supply and demand are weak. After the festival, the demand for replenishment by downstream enterprises rises, and the demand affected by the epidemic is weak. It is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

Precious metal prices continued to move down this week

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average early price of silver market was 5001.67 yuan / kg, down 0.69%, down 4.08% from the average early price of 5214.67 yuan / kg in the spot market last Friday; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the month (March 1), the early average price was 4928.33 yuan / kg, up 1.49%; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.86%.

On March 31, the spot market price of gold was 393.93 yuan / g, down 0.04% on a daily basis, down 1.51% from the early average price of 399.98 yuan / G on Friday (March 1), and up 1.71% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.79%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Fundamentals list

1. Global official gold reserve data

According to the latest data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as of the end of January 2022, the global official gold reserves totaled 35536.8 tons. Among them, the euro zone (including the European Central Bank) totaled 10772.5 tons, accounting for 52.5% of its total foreign exchange reserves.

Domestically, the latest data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange showed that the gold reserves of the people’s Bank of China remained unchanged at 1948.3 tons at the end of February, the same as that at the end of January 2022.

2. Overseas news

US President Biden proposed an annual budget of US $5.8 trillion for fiscal year 2023; The budget proposal predicts a deficit of $1.15 trillion in fiscal year 2023; The 2023 budget will raise taxes on the super rich and enterprises, and increase defense and police spending; The budget proposal requires people with assets of more than $100 million to pay at least 20% federal income tax. John Yarmuth, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said Congress may have to raise the debt ceiling around January 1, 2023. He said that raising the debt ceiling is a possibility, or use the budget process to pass. Earlier on Monday (March 28), US President Biden proposed a US $5.8 trillion budget, and the proposed tax increase reached a record high.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In terms of futures, the night trading was favorable due to the conflict negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, and the risk aversion decreased on the news side. In the short term, the upward trend of precious metal prices is weak.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the recent market situation of formaldehyde in Shandong fell. On March 31, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1452.50 yuan / ton, and on April 1, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1447.50 yuan / ton, down 0.34%. The current price rose 7.62% month on month, and the current price fell 1.31% year-on-year.

The recent formaldehyde market is weak and low. As of April 1, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1460-1500 yuan / ton. Recently, the market of raw material methanol has declined weakly, and the cost support is general. Due to the difficulty of cargo transportation, the demand of downstream plate factories has weakened, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicts that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong is dominated by a weak decline.

Aluminum prices fell slightly on the 31st

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22640 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 0.44%, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, an increase of 0.35% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 11.14%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.60% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.11% recently.

On the 30th, the domestic adipic acid market price fell, mainly due to the drop in the price of upstream pure benzene and the relatively abundant supply of adipic acid. The operating rate remained above 70%, but the demand was relatively low.

The adipic acid Market in East China fell. Today, the quotation was loose by 200 yuan. At the beginning of the week, the listing guide price of some large manufacturers was reduced by 500 yuan, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure was obvious. The dealer’s offer is mainly low, and the market transaction is in the doldrums. The price of pure benzene fell and its support for adipic acid weakened. The downstream procurement is rational, and the demand is not large for the time being. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: acceptance price of 13000-13200 yuan / ton for Shandong source of goods and 13100-13300 yuan / ton for Jiangsu source of goods.

Adipic acid Market in South China fell, ranging from 100-200 yuan. At present, the market demand maintains rigid demand, and the market transaction is sluggish. This week, the manufacturer’s listing was temporarily stable, and the downstream procurement was just needed. Today, the mainstream price in the market is: the acceptance price of Shandong source of goods is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, and the acceptance price of Jiangsu source of goods is 13300-13500 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: adipic acid market is expected to have downward space in the near future.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (March 29): 3183.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of sulfur in East China today increased by 5.86% compared with yesterday. The tight supply of port goods and strong quotation support the increase of domestic refinery quotation. Coupled with the positive impact of the continuous upward trend of sulfuric acid market, the downstream demand is strong, while the inventory of domestic refinery is low, the market supply is in short supply, and the enterprise sulfur continues to increase. There is little change in the price of sulfur fixation in regional refineries, and it is temporarily stable in Shandong. Only a few manufacturers in East China have increased by 50 yuan / ton and 100 yuan / ton in North China; Liquid sulfur increased more, with an increase of 350 yuan / ton in Shandong, 70-150 yuan / ton in East China and 200-300 yuan / ton in North China.

Future forecast: the short-term sulfur market will operate at a high level, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (March 28): 13200.00 yuan / ton

On March 28, the ex factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 0.25%, compared with March 25, and 1.49% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of propylene in the upstream was adjusted at a low level, the cost support was weakened, the downstream DOP market had a downward trend, and the downstream demand was weakened.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 13000 yuan / ton.