According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, the price of steam coal was weak this week. The energy index stood at 1101 points on February 12, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.47% from the highest point of 1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 115.46% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

In terms of origin, the coal mine resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the market supply increased, but the market trading atmosphere was general. The price of coal in main producing areas has declined, with the price reduction range ranging from 30-50 yuan/ton. Downstream production resumed after the Spring Festival, but steam coal was mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of downstream ports, the market sales were average, the market quotation declined, and the enthusiasm for taking goods in the downstream was average, and the transaction was relatively weak. The end users’ demand for steam coal is generally limited, and they are mainly wait-and-see attitude. They also think that the port inventory is high, and they still have a downward attitude towards the future coal price.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the national coal price dropped slightly last week (from January 30 to February 5), including 1592 yuan, 1475 yuan and 944 yuan per ton of No.2 anthracite lump coal, coking coal and steam coal, down 1.4%, 1.0% and 0.7% respectively.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the production of steam coal in the production area will resume after the holiday, and the market supply will increase. In terms of downstream ports, the purchase enthusiasm of power plants is general, and the transaction is relatively weak. It is estimated that the price of steam coal will remain weak in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the domestic PC market was weak in the first half of February, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of February 10, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 17183.33 yuan/ton, up and down by+1.53% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that after the festival, pure benzene and phenol ketone rose, while bisphenol A rose with raw materials, and the market rose sharply. Recently, due to the fluctuation of crude oil market, the strength of double raw materials is not strong, and the purchasing volume of new orders is obviously insufficient due to the excessive digestion of inventory at the demand end, so the bisphenol A market is weak.

On the supply side: the utilization rate of PC production capacity is about 70% in the near future, and the pressure on the supply side has been greatly increased compared with the previous period. At the same time, there is news that new devices have been put into production recently. The flow of domestic goods is sluggish, and the pressure on the supply side is also increased.

In terms of demand: in the first ten days of February, the downstream of PC just needed to maintain production, and the operators had a heavy wait-and-see mentality. At present, the resumption of work of terminal enterprises is slow, and there is pre-holiday inventory that needs to be digested, resulting in weak intra-field trading. The traders’ mentality is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket forecast

In the first ten days of February, the PC market fluctuated and fell, the upstream bisphenol A market weakened, and the support for PC cost weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants has hit a high level in recent years, while the demand side has not followed up well, and the pressure on the supply side has increased sharply. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the impact of supply and demand contradiction in the near future.

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7966.67 yuan/ton as of February 8, up 3.46% from the price on February 1.

Since February, the acrylic acid market has risen steadily. From the perspective of cost: the recent rise in the price of raw material propylene has supported acrylic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand: the enterprise’s device load is not high, the industry’s inventory is low, and the downstream has returned, the demand has gradually increased, the market inquiry is positive, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation has steadily increased.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has risen slightly recently. On February 8, the reference price of propylene was 7680.75, up 1.99% from February 1 (7530.75).

According to customs statistics, from January to December 2022, China’s cumulative imports of acrylic acid and its salts were 35753620 kg, and the cumulative exports were 129322873 kg. The lowest import volume is in December, the import volume is 134140 kg, the highest import volume is in February, and the import volume is 5395355 kg. The lowest export volume is in October, the export volume is 618993 kg, the highest export volume is in June, and the export volume is 29925693 kg.

The acrylic acid analyst of the Business Agency believes that the market fundamentals have not changed much at present, and the transaction remains in negotiation. With the resumption of downstream work, the demand is stable and expected to be better. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has increased significantly, and the spot prices have increased more or decreased less after the holiday. As of February 7, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA6 was 14500 yuan/ton, up 7.94% month-on-month (MoM), according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the caprolactam market in the upstream of PA6 has a positive trend recently, with a range increase of 13.65%. In the early stage, international crude oil rebounded after falling, and the price of pure benzene rose, driving the cost of caprolactam to strengthen the upstream. At present, the market supply is tight. In February, the manufacturer’s overhaul and restart plans alternate, and the caprolactam supply side pressure is low. On February 6, the price of the business club was 12766.67 yuan/ton, and the market was generally good, which may continue to be strong in the short term, bringing strong support to the cost of PA6.

Supply:

Before and after the Spring Festival, the load of domestic PA6 production enterprises increased slightly from about 67.8% before the festival to 70.8% at present, and the overall operation was stable. The total output in the week after the holiday is about 90000 tons. The market supply is stable. Due to the large number of orders and goods to be shipped in the early stage of the factory, the current inventory pressure of the factory is low, the market supply is tight, the supplier has some support for the spot goods, and the factory price is generally rising.

Demand:

In the early stage, the demand of the terminal factory fell due to holidays, and the downstream gradually resumed work in the near future. However, the increased load of downstream enterprises of PA6 is still low. The current starting position of domestic textile industry load is 21.9%, and the starting rate of nylon filament industry is about 55%. The consumption capacity of PA6 is generally maintained at the pre-holiday level, and the demand-side pull is weak. In addition, the terminal factory still has the stock to be digested before the year. At present, the purchase intention is cautious and wait-and-see. In combination with the above factors, the demand side support of PA6 is not strong, and the profit margin of merchants has been lowered.

Aftermarket forecast

Overall, the positive market of PA6 market after the festival is mainly driven by caprolactam at the raw material end. At the same time, the inventory pressure of PA6 polymerization plant is low, and the ex-factory price is strong. However, downstream enterprises resumed work slowly after the holiday, the load position only recovered to the low level before the year, the procurement follow-up was weak, and the market trading was weak. Some merchants have an arbitrage mentality, and the operation is biased to sneak down the goods, and individual offers fall slightly. It is expected that the domestic PA6 market will be limited in the short term due to the long and short entanglement. It is recommended to pay close attention to the flow of goods.

Price trend

At the beginning of February, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and sorted out. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 6, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, up and down by -0.83% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the recent performance of ABS upstream three materials is generally fair. Among them, the acrylonitrile market was flat after rising, and the listing price of manufacturers was increased in the early stage. With the support of raw material propylene, the industry started at a low level, and the prices quoted by merchants kept up with the rise, and most of them were reluctant to sell.

The domestic butadiene market has continued to rise recently. In the early stage, the prices of mainstream suppliers rose to drive the market. The low inventory of the East China tank farm, coupled with the recent release of some factory maintenance plans, and the expectation of contraction at the supply side, supported the firm intention of some merchants to offer. However, the demand is generally reflected, and the acceptance of high-priced supply is not good, which may affect the later growth. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be strong in the short term.

Recently, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fallen. In the early stage, pure benzene has rebounded with crude oil. In the recent period, crude oil has declined, and styrene has declined slightly. Downstream demand for bargain-hunting and replenishment has just been maintained. The styrene market has declined due to the impact of cost fluctuations. At present, the supply of styrene is abundant, but the recovery of the downstream still needs time. It is expected that the market of styrene will fall mainly due to short-term shocks.

In terms of supply: the recent high level of load in the ABS industry, the high and stable start of the plant, the relatively abundant supply of goods on the site, and the factory continued the early de-stocking operation, the overall inventory position is not high, the price of the polymerization plant rose more or fell less after the festival, and the support of the supply side for the spot price is acceptable.

In terms of demand: in the near future, downstream factories including the main terminal appliance industry have prepared goods in a regular manner. The volume of goods in the field before the festival is general, the overall demand tends to be stable, and the goods in the field are normal. Buyers and merchants follow the market after the festival.

Aftermarket forecast

At the beginning of February, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was mixed, which continued to support the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started at a high level, the supply was stable, and the ex-factory price rose more or fell less in terms of operation. The demand-side support is general, the seller’s inventory position is on the high side, and the offer is mainly based on the price. It is expected that the ABS market will be sorted and operated in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic ethanol market in January was mainly sorted out. From January 1 to 31, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell from 7421 yuan/ton to 7242 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.41% in the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 3.65%.

In January, the supply and demand side of the domestic ethanol market price was greatly affected, and the cost side support was limited. At the beginning of the month, the supply and demand of raw material corn market was roughly balanced, and the short-term price was roughly stable, with partial narrow adjustment. The demand side is stable, the demand at the chemical end is stable before the festival, and the starting load is down slightly; The demand for Baijiu is stable; Before the festival, disinfection and sterilization demand continued to pull. The ethanol market returns to calm. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the delivery of raw materials by large factories in the northeast region was restricted greatly in the middle of June, and the enterprises started to reduce their production, and the price rose after the supply decreased. After the Lunar New Year, with the further liberalization of the country, the daily disinfection consumption returned to normal, and the ethanol market was mainly stabilized.

On the cost side, according to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic corn price fluctuated in January. On January 1, the average price of the third-class yellow corn was 2830.00 yuan/ton, and on January 31, the average price was 2834.29 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.15%. After the New Year’s Day, the supply of domestic corn market is relatively stable. Affected by the increase of rain and snow weather, the arrival quantity of corn at the port has declined. The port area has slightly increased the purchase price of corn. In addition, near the end of the year, the willingness of farmers in the production area to sell grain has declined significantly, and the trade volume of domestic corn market has continued to decline. In order to stimulate the arrival of corn, the port area and some deep-processing enterprises have slightly increased the purchase price of corn, Drive the domestic corn market price to run slightly stronger.

On the demand side, in February, the chemical procurement is likely to increase, and the consumption of Baijiu and food is expected to increase after the economy recovers gradually. The fuel demand will maintain a good demand in the short term. There are many positive factors in the demand side of ethanol in the medium and long term.

It is predicted that after the closure is lifted, the consumption of disinfection and sterilization will increase; Still in the atmosphere of the Spring Festival, the demand for Baijiu has recovered; The demand for ethyl acetate in the chemical industry continued to be stable, and the overall on-site demand was significantly boosted. Ethanol analysts of the Business Agency expect that the domestic ethanol market is expected to be sorted out and run in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell in January

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of January 30, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11500 yuan/ton, down by 5.74% from 12200 yuan/ton on January 1. The cost fell, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell in January.

The price of raw materials fell

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 30, the price of fluorite was 3162.50 yuan/ton, down 4.17% from the price of 3300 yuan/ton on January 1; As of January 30, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10928.57 yuan/ton, down 12.57% from 12500 yuan/ton on January 1. The prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen sharply, the prices of raw materials have fallen, the cost of aluminum fluoride has fallen, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased.

Downstream demand rose in January

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of January 30, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18783.33 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from 18696.67 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of electrolytic aluminum fell first and then rose. The stock was replenished before and after the holiday. Downstream demand warmed up. The demand for aluminum fluoride increased. The downward pressure of aluminum fluoride weakened and the upward momentum remained.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of the aluminum fluoride industry of the Business Agency believe that the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell sharply in January, and the cost of aluminum fluoride fell; Stock up before and after the festival, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose slightly, and the demand for aluminum fluoride warmed up. As the cost of aluminum fluoride decreases and the demand recovers, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increases and the upward momentum remains. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market in China was 9133.33 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 44.71% year on year. The neopentyl glycol commodity index on January 15 was 44.02, which was the same as yesterday, down 57.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 2.25% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol were temporarily stable.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 6733.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7100.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.45%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late January, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream paint market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by the supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 43300 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 42900 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.92%, down 21.39% year on year. The bromine commodity index on January 12 was 150.53, which was the same as yesterday, down 38.60% from the highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 155.48% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine was generally weak. Downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries have recently started to maintain low load and low starting point. Demand is obviously bleak, and bromine enterprises are slow to ship. The bromine manufacturers are mainly parking and consuming inventory, while the downstream take advantage of the opportunity to reduce the price, and near the Spring Festival, they are mainly multi-row warehouses.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur price fell this week, with the average market price of 1316.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1300 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 1.27%, down 38% year on year. The sulfur plant operates normally, the market supply is stable, the downstream purchase follows up as required, the focus of market transaction is light and stable, and the short-term sulfur market is wait-and-see operation.

According to the analysts of the Business News Agency, the price of bromine is weak in the near future, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have gradually stopped production in the near future, the market transaction is weak, the upstream sulfur price is falling, and bromine enterprises are mainly consuming inventory, and the Spring Festival is approaching. The supply-demand game, based on the comprehensive prediction of the weak price of bromine in the short term, consolidates the operating market, and depends on the downstream market demand.

This week (12.30-1.6), the nitrile rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of nitrile rubber was 15450 yuan/ton as of January 6, up 2.32% from 15100 yuan/ton last Friday. Downstream inquiries increased, and merchants’ offers were firm, but the market trading atmosphere warmed, and merchants’ offers were adjusted. At present, the mainstream market price of Lanhua nitrile 3305 is 14800~15200 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream reported 17300~17600 yuan/ton.

This week (12.30-1.6), the price of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile rose, and the cost of nitrile rubber rose. As of January 6, the price of butadiene was 7785 yuan/ton, up 7.51% from 7241 yuan/ton on Friday, according to the monitoring of Business News Agency. The external market of butadiene rose slightly during the week, and the prices of domestic mainstream suppliers were actively raised. At the same time, some manufacturers in Shandong Province bid for goods at a substantial price increase after the festival, which boosted the market prices to a wide jump in succession. As of January 6, the price of acrylonitrile was 9737 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from 9600 yuan/ton on Friday, according to the monitoring of Business News Agency. On the one hand, the short stop of Lihuayi acrylonitrile unit stimulated the market, on the other hand, the cost support, and the price of acrylonitrile rose slightly.

The supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable.

Recently, the downstream rubber product industries such as rubber hose and auto parts have increased their inquiries for nitrile rubber, and the market trading atmosphere has warmed up. The demand for nitrile rubber is slightly better than the previous support.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the Business Agency believe that the supply of NBR is temporarily stable, downstream inquiries are increasing, and the raw material butadiene continues to rise. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to recover slightly in the short term.