1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has dropped this month, with a price of 9318 yuan/ton on July 1st; On July 9th, the price was 8888 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 41.34% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The inventory of ports in East China has increased, and the inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu region is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The market supply is abundant, and the pure benzene market continues to decline. Night trading of pure benzene negotiated around 8800 yuan/ton.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene has dropped to 8950 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

The market price of styrene has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. In July, there were many inspections of styrene plants, and the inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu Province was 35900 tons, a decrease of 13100 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 49000 tons, a decrease of 26.73%. The inventory of styrene has decreased rapidly, and the unit load is low, leading to an expectation of further decline in supply. The styrene market is trading actively and the market is rising.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: International oil prices have fallen. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 fell by $0.83 per barrel, or 1.00%, at 82.33%; ICE oil futures contract 09 fell by $0.79 per barrel, or 0.91%, at 85.75. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2408, fell 1.2 to 635.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 9.8 to 625.6 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

The fundamentals are showing a downward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

On July 8th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that last week, domestic palm oil prices rose significantly with the foreign market. On July 5th, the closing price of the 2409 contract for palm oil on the Dashangsuo was 8014 yuan/ton, an increase of 348 yuan/ton or 4.5% compared to the previous week. The spot basis price in coastal areas was P2409+120-210 yuan/ton, which remained basically unchanged compared to the previous week. Recently, palm oil import profits have shifted from positive to negative, and companies have purchased fewer new ships. Shipping schedule monitoring shows that the average monthly arrival volume of palm oil from July to August was around 250000 tons. The short-term tight supply of palm oil in China will continue, and it is expected that domestic palm oil prices will remain volatile and strong in July, with a stronger price trend than soybean oil and rapeseed oil.

In June, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of isooctanol was 9740 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.62% compared to the price of isooctanol on June 1st, which was 9900 yuan/ton; Compared to June 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.13% to 10160 yuan/ton. In June, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and downstream factories faced difficulties in sales. Enterprises showed average enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Shandong’s large factories have average shipments, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and declined. Downstream purchases are mainly small orders. Isooctanol manufacturers have poor shipments, and downstream customers have a strong demand for procurement, increasing the pressure on the decline of isooctanol.

In June, the price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of propylene was 7213.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 5.23% compared to the price of propylene on June 1st, which was 6854.60 yuan/ton; Compared to June 17th, the price of propylene fluctuated and decreased by 1.16% at 7298.25 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, with increased support for propylene costs. In June, propylene prices first rose and then fell; Downstream production of propylene has decreased, downstream customers have just needed to purchase, and propylene manufacturers have average shipments. The supply and demand of the propylene market are weak, and the price of propylene is consolidating at a high level.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9875 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on June 1st; Compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 10th, it has decreased by 5.05%. The market for plasticizer DOP raw material phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the price of isooctanol has fallen, the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased, plasticizer DOP enterprises are operating steadily, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient. Downstream manufacturers of plasticizers are experiencing a decline in production and poor demand. The downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, while the cost support for isooctanol weakened; In terms of supply, iso octanol manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer product prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in poor downstream demand in the future. Overall, the oversupply of isooctanol has weakened cost support, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of June 27, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8900 yuan/ton. Compared with June 20 (reference price of n-butanol was 9166 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.91%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in recent days (6.20-6.27), the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market has fallen from a high level. After the initial demand for n-butanol has ended, the overall demand for n-butanol has weakened, and the support provided by the demand side to the market is average. The trading atmosphere on the market is average, and the focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market is moving downwards. As of June 27th, the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market price is around 8700-9000 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the overall supply side of the n-butanol factory is still operating at a low level, and the supply side is relatively stable, providing certain support to the market. The downstream demand market is cautious, and the demand side has loosened slightly. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall stability and consolidation of the domestic n-butanol market are the main factors, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

The price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly declined, with an average price of 3787.5 yuan/ton as of the 26th, a decrease of 0.49% from the price of 3806.5 yuan/ton on the 18th, and a year-on-year increase of 21.49%.

Supply side: There is not much change in the supply of fluorite during safety inspections in some mines

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will continue to be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments will carry out rectification and renovation of fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. In addition, an accident at a certain mine in Jiangxi has caused some mines in the region to undergo safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite goods is still tight, and the decline in fluorite prices is limited.

Demand side: Weak demand for hydrofluoric acid, declining refrigerant production

Recently, the domestic market for hydrofluoric acid has remained weak, with mainstream prices negotiated in various regions ranging from 11200 to 11600 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak, and some devices are still in shutdown recently. There is not much change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have lower orders for hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that hydrofluoric acid pricing will continue to decline in July, dragging down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers will purchase according to demand, and the domestic fluorite market will slightly decline.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market’s production demand has weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has continued, and refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions, making them less proactive in purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the market for fluorite has slightly declined.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has maintained a high level.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market is declining, and the demand for downstream refrigerant industry is gradually weakening. Both long and short factors are affecting the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices may slightly decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of baking soda on June 17th was 2376 yuan/ton, and on June 24th it was 2334 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% and an increase of 21.25% compared to the same period last year. On June 23, the baking soda commodity index was 156.90, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 33.47% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 77.75% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and the market is running smoothly, and the company’s shipment is still acceptable. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is weak, and downstream demand is average. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2120 yuan/ton, while the average market price over the weekend was 2105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% and an increase of 7.4% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak in recent times. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food, and other sectors of baking soda have been purchasing on demand, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased this week. On June 10th, the market price of aniline was 12117 yuan/ton, and on June 14th, it was 12166 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.39% compared to last week and 11.49% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, the main business unit raised its listing price, leading to an increase in downstream gas buying and a shift in the focus of negotiations. The transaction in the East China market was positive. Shandong Refinery has a good mentality and low inventory pressure. After the quoted price was moved up, the premium transaction was made and the shipment was smooth. The night trading remained at a high level of 9520 yuan/ton, with pure benzene from East China expected to remain stable and consolidate in the morning. On Friday (June 14th), the price of pure benzene was 9439 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.58% from last week and 52.24% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On June 10th, the price was 1806 yuan/ton, and on June 7th, the price was 1754 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% from last week and a decrease of 12.3% from the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

Considering the arrival of the off-season, although the costs of most factories continue to rise, the shipping mentality continues, and the high prices offered are firm. This week, most domestic facilities are operating normally, production and sales are not yet balanced, and inventory is small. It is expected that short-term aniline shipments will continue, waiting for new news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of June 7, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 9200 yuan/ton. Compared with May 31 (reference price of n-butanol was 8366 yuan/ton), the price increased by 834 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.96%; Compared with May 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 7833 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 1367 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.45%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in May, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the first ten days, the n-butanol market steadily rose and operated, with a 2.98% increase in the first ten days. In the latter half of the month, the n-butanol market fluctuated, but at the end of the month, the n-butanol market rapidly rose and then slightly declined, with an increase of 3.72% in the latter half of the month and an overall increase of 6.81% in May.

Entering June, the overall upward trend of the n-butanol market in Shandong region continued, and the focus of negotiations on n-butanol continued to approach high levels. Some factories closed without reporting, and the market’s upward trend spread. On the 7th, the opening price of n-butanol large factories increased by 600 yuan/ton, driving a broad increase in the market situation, with a daily increase of 6.58%.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ June 7th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 9200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 9200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 9700-9800 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 9400-9500 yuan/ton

Analysis of market factors for n-butanol in May

In terms of demand: In May, the overall downstream demand for n-butanol performed well, with a mild market inquiry atmosphere and an overall increase in new orders. In June, the downstream demand continued to improve, with some downstream raw material inventories remaining low. The overall procurement atmosphere was active, and the demand side provided support for n-butanol.

In terms of supply: In May, the overall supply of n-butanol decreased, and some n-butanol plants were shut down for maintenance. The supply of n-butanol factories was tight, and inventory was low. In addition, some factories received export orders, which further added to the tight spot situation in the n-butanol market. In June, the tight supply situation of n-butanol remained, so the supply side also provided impetus support for the rise of the n-butanol market.

Future analysis

At present, n-butanol as a whole is operating at a high level, and the dual support of supply and demand is driving the market price of n-butanol to gradually approach a high level. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, effective support for n-butanol on the market still exists, and the future market will continue to be mainly stable, medium, and strong. In the long run, the continuous increase in costs will bring significant cost pressure to downstream users. Downstream users may regulate their operating levels, and the long-term n-butanol market may experience a pullback. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price trend of domestic fluorite continued to rise in May, with an average price of 3806.25 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.57% compared to the price of 3675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 21.07%.

Supply side: Some mines have safety inspections, and the supply of fluorite is tight

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will continue to be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments will carry out rectification and renovation of fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. In addition, an accident at a certain mine in Jiangxi has caused some mines in the region to undergo safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite goods is tight, and the price trend of fluorite continued to rise in May.

On the demand side, hydrofluoric acid can be purchased as needed and refrigerant can still be started

In May, domestic hydrofluoric acid first rose and then fell, and overall, the price remained stable. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China increased to 11200-116700 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable in May. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is average, and some devices are still in shutdown recently. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal. The price of hydrofluoric acid is dragging down the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, limiting the growth of the domestic fluorite market.

In May, the price trend of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry did not change much. Recently, there has been an increase in dealer purchases, and the price trend of R22 has increased. The mainstream of negotiations is between 26000 and 28000 yuan/ton. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has started, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The sales situation of R134a in China is average, and the market in May is relatively stable. Currently, the market price of R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good. Recently, the prices of some other refrigerant products have risen, which has affected the upward trend of the fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market is declining, and the demand for downstream refrigerant industry is gradually weakening. Both long and short factors are affecting the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will remain high and volatile in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate showed an overall downward trend in May. On May 31st, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 104400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% compared to the average price of 108400 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 31st, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 109400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.2% compared to the average price of 115400 yuan/ton on May 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the lithium carbonate spot market performed relatively calmly during the May Day holiday in early May, and there was a slight increase in market resumption prices after the holiday. In terms of supply, some lithium salt companies still maintain a positive attitude towards selling individual orders. Due to the rise in the market price of lithium carbonate futures, some lithium salt companies have slightly increased their prices for individual orders. In addition, with the continuous increase in imported lithium carbonate from January to April, domestic lithium carbonate imports may show an upward trend around May, which will provide a supplement to the domestic market supply.

In terms of demand, downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes have already prepared their goods in advance before the May Day holiday, and their raw material inventory is sufficient to support production orders for a period of time in the future. Additionally, some of the purchased goods have arrived during the holiday. Downstream enterprises tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, and the market transaction situation is relatively flat. Downstream material suppliers may adopt a strategy of purchasing at lower prices at the current price.

In mid to late May, the price of lithium carbonate showed a stepwise downward trend. In terms of supply, the domestic production of lithium carbonate continued to increase from April to May. The production in April increased by 23% month on month, coupled with an increase in imported goods and recent arrivals to ports, resulting in a significant increase in lithium carbonate supply and continuous market supply pressure. In a state of relatively sufficient market supply, although lithium salt production enterprises are still relatively conservative in individual unit prices, they have slightly lowered their prices in response to market sentiment, and some traders have also simultaneously lowered their prices.

In terms of demand, some downstream positive electrode enterprises have made a small amount of bulk purchases in the context of price fluctuations. However, some downstream enterprises still do not have the willingness to replenish spot inventory due to their sufficient inventory of lithium carbonate, increased customer supply, and stable long-term contracts. Subsequently, the market was at the negotiation point of the long-term agreement in June, and most downstream enterprises were cautious and cautious about the current fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices. Although the market had good enthusiasm for inquiry, the actual outcome was not ideal. In addition, the production of ternary materials has decreased month on month, and the demand for iron and lithium has remained stable. Some large factories have reduced production, resulting in a weakening of downstream demand.

The weak consolidation and operation of the lithium hydroxide market, with slightly weak cost support in the first half of the year, and a decrease in downstream demand. Most downstream ternary enterprises mainly consume inventory, with moderate demand for high nickel. The market inquiry atmosphere is still good, but there is a clear wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials, and actual transactions are flat. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak. In the second half of the year, the cost support was average, with the supply side industry operating at a low level and the demand side performing poorly. The market supply was mainly based on long-term contract orders, with limited individual transactions. The pace of market trading slowed down, and the lithium hydroxide market remained weak and stable.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and downward, while the upstream price of lithium carbonate is mainly weak and lacks support on the cost side. The focus of market negotiations is relatively low, and inventory remains at a high level. Market supply pressure continues, and some factories have a strong willingness to compromise prices, leading to a continued downward shift in spot prices. In the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures in May rose slightly but fell significantly, with a volatile trend supported by bearish fundamentals and macro sentiment. On May 31st, the opening price of the LC2407 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 106000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 107200 yuan/ton and a closing price of 104850 yuan/ton. The daily decline was 1.27%, with a trading volume of 102600 lots and a position of 161329 lots.

According to a lithium carbonate analyst from Business Society, the current lithium carbonate market continues to be competitive, and some upstream lithium salt factories still choose to maintain a certain price stance at the end of the month. At the end of May, the downstream market still showed lower willingness to purchase spot goods due to its high inventory, long-term cooperation, and high customer supply. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain in a wait-and-see situation in the short term and maintain a low consolidation.