1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has dropped this month, with a price of 9318 yuan/ton on July 1st; On July 9th, the price was 8888 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 41.34% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The inventory of ports in East China has increased, and the inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu region is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The market supply is abundant, and the pure benzene market continues to decline. Night trading of pure benzene negotiated around 8800 yuan/ton.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene has dropped to 8950 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

The market price of styrene has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. In July, there were many inspections of styrene plants, and the inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu Province was 35900 tons, a decrease of 13100 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 49000 tons, a decrease of 26.73%. The inventory of styrene has decreased rapidly, and the unit load is low, leading to an expectation of further decline in supply. The styrene market is trading actively and the market is rising.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: International oil prices have fallen. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 fell by $0.83 per barrel, or 1.00%, at 82.33%; ICE oil futures contract 09 fell by $0.79 per barrel, or 0.91%, at 85.75. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2408, fell 1.2 to 635.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 9.8 to 625.6 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

The fundamentals are showing a downward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

On July 8th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that last week, domestic palm oil prices rose significantly with the foreign market. On July 5th, the closing price of the 2409 contract for palm oil on the Dashangsuo was 8014 yuan/ton, an increase of 348 yuan/ton or 4.5% compared to the previous week. The spot basis price in coastal areas was P2409+120-210 yuan/ton, which remained basically unchanged compared to the previous week. Recently, palm oil import profits have shifted from positive to negative, and companies have purchased fewer new ships. Shipping schedule monitoring shows that the average monthly arrival volume of palm oil from July to August was around 250000 tons. The short-term tight supply of palm oil in China will continue, and it is expected that domestic palm oil prices will remain volatile and strong in July, with a stronger price trend than soybean oil and rapeseed oil.

In June, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of isooctanol was 9740 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.62% compared to the price of isooctanol on June 1st, which was 9900 yuan/ton; Compared to June 10th, the price of isooctanol decreased by 4.13% to 10160 yuan/ton. In June, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, and downstream factories faced difficulties in sales. Enterprises showed average enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Shandong’s large factories have average shipments, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and declined. Downstream purchases are mainly small orders. Isooctanol manufacturers have poor shipments, and downstream customers have a strong demand for procurement, increasing the pressure on the decline of isooctanol.

In June, the price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of propylene was 7213.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 5.23% compared to the price of propylene on June 1st, which was 6854.60 yuan/ton; Compared to June 17th, the price of propylene fluctuated and decreased by 1.16% at 7298.25 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, with increased support for propylene costs. In June, propylene prices first rose and then fell; Downstream production of propylene has decreased, downstream customers have just needed to purchase, and propylene manufacturers have average shipments. The supply and demand of the propylene market are weak, and the price of propylene is consolidating at a high level.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9875 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on June 1st; Compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 10th, it has decreased by 5.05%. The market for plasticizer DOP raw material phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the price of isooctanol has fallen, the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased, plasticizer DOP enterprises are operating steadily, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient. Downstream manufacturers of plasticizers are experiencing a decline in production and poor demand. The downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, while the cost support for isooctanol weakened; In terms of supply, iso octanol manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer product prices of isooctanol have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in poor downstream demand in the future. Overall, the oversupply of isooctanol has weakened cost support, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall in the future.