1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 16th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4700 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price was mainly weak compared to the same period last week, with a slight decrease in price. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF is mainly operating in a narrow and weak range, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700-4800 yuan/ton. Manufacturers are actively shipping, logistics are smooth, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the cost side of DMF is slightly supported, and it will maintain a stable, medium, and strong operation in the near future. Downstream enterprises need to purchase and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain its current trend, with mainstream prices remaining at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis: On May 15th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.06%. The main reason is that some equipment in the northern main production area has been repaired due to malfunctions, and the contraction of the supply surface has brought benefits. On Wednesday, major factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei and Henan provinces generally raised prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation, and dealer quotes have followed suit. Downstream urea companies are gradually shutting down, and prices are linked upwards. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3100-3300 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The shutdown of liquid ammonia enterprises in the north will continue for a period of time due to malfunctions, and the tense supply and demand atmosphere will not change. In the later stage, it may form support for the surrounding areas. Ammonia enterprises will mainly raise prices and chase up prices. In the short term, the ammonia market is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work by ammonia enterprises in the later stage.

The performance of the domestic ethyl acrylate market in this cycle (5.7-5.14) has been relatively stagnant. As we enter mid May, market quotations have slightly declined, and bearish factors on the market remain unchanged. The ethyl acrylate market is slightly weak. As of May 14th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9362.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.13% compared to the beginning of this month (9375.00 yuan/ton).

The domestic market price of ethyl acrylate has not decreased, with a minimum value of 8600 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the recovery of market demand is slow, and on the other hand, there is insufficient supply support. Recently, the price of ethyl acrylate in China has experienced a narrow decline, showing a weak consolidation trend. The main reason is that the price has fallen to a low level, and intermediaries tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude to consider cost reasons.

Supply side:

In this cycle, the domestic market price of n-butanol remained stable with a strong trend. The ex factory price in Shandong was 7900-7950 yuan/ton, and the production of n-butanol in the market slightly declined. In addition, factory inventory remained low, leading to a tightening of spot supply in the market. The overall downstream production was stable, with primary demand procurement and active low price transactions in the market. It is expected that the domestic price of n-butanol will shift towards high-end operation next week.

The range of raw material acrylic acid market has been sorted and operated. As of May 13th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The cost pressure on acrylic acid is still ongoing. Recently, production equipment has been shut down for maintenance, providing some support for the market. Some large factories have raised their listed prices, boosting bullish confidence among businesses. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, while downstream markets are cautious and cautious. In the short term, the market may fluctuate and consolidate.

Demand side:

In recent times, the acrylic resin market has continued to operate weakly, with overcapacity leading to market supply exceeding market demand, which still has a negative impact on prices. However, raw material prices have continued to fluctuate at low levels, with weak and stable cost support. The decline in prices supported by costs has contracted. It is expected that the weak domestic acrylic resin market will continue in the short term, with prices mainly consolidating at low levels.

In summary, it is difficult to find favorable demand for domestic ethyl acrylate production enterprises, and market players still have a bearish attitude towards the future. Analysts from Business Society predict that there may be a slight downward trend in the domestic ethyl acrylate market in the short term, but in the long run, the price increase space is still limited.

From May 1st to May 10th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China rose, with prices this week at 103500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.02%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on the rise recently.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ April 29th/ May 11th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 14450./15550./+1100

Overseas markets: Since mid April, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has continued to rise. As of May 11th, the quotation was at $15550/ton, and after the holiday, it rose by $1100/ton. The external market price continues to rise, driving up the domestic market atmosphere. Currently, the spot market has a strong bullish atmosphere.

This week, the antimony ingot market has seen a broad increase, while the European antimony ingot market has continued to rise, driving an improvement in the domestic market atmosphere. Smelters have strengthened their reluctance to sell, leading to a continuous increase in factory prices. Downstream customers have actively entered the market for inquiries. Currently, it is difficult to find low-priced goods, and the tight supply has boosted the strong price support mentality of smelting enterprises. Downstream enterprises actively entered the market for inquiries, driven by improved demand, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week. In the future, the supply and demand of antimony ingots in China are currently tight, and downstream demand is expected to be strong. Supported by multiple positive factors, it is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

Antimony oxide: This week, the antimony oxide market continued to follow the rise of antimony ingots, with an increase range of 3000-4000 yuan/ton during the cycle. At present, it is difficult to find low-priced raw materials in the market, and downstream enterprises are actively entering the market to inquire about goods and replenish inventory. Due to the market’s reluctance to sell, it is currently difficult to find low-priced sources of goods. Under the dominant influence of the trade in policy, the expected amount of antimony used in flame retardants is improving. At present, it is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and the industrial chain market is operating with a strong bias.

Industry data:

On May 10th, the base metal index was 1315 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 18.63% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 104.83% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 10th, the non-ferrous index was 1212 points, an increase of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 21.20% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 99.67% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)..

According to price monitoring, in the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10), there were a total of 15 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (4.61%), antimony (3.50%), and aluminum oxide (3.33%). There are three products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being titanium concentrate (-1.30%), copper (-1.17%), and nickel (-0.43%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.94%.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42300 yuan/ton. After the holiday in May, the lithium iron phosphate market has mainly maintained stable operation, with prices maintaining stable operation and no significant fluctuations. Upstream iron phosphate prices have remained stable, while lithium carbonate prices have remained stable with a moderate to strong trend and limited increase. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average. Currently, the supply and demand balance of the lithium iron phosphate market is the main trend.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: After the May Day holiday, the upstream lithium carbonate price has remained stable with a strong trend, inventory has remained high, downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable, and the upstream iron phosphate price will remain stable with a small range of price fluctuations. It is expected that the current price trend will remain the main trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, from the perspective of market supply and demand, the current market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is insufficient, and upstream lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices lack upward momentum, making it difficult to boost the price of lithium iron phosphate. It is expected that in the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate will remain around 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate will remain around 42300 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 9, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7550 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7733 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%.

According to the price trend chart of propylene glycol in Shengyishe from the beginning of the year to the present, it can be seen that the domestic propylene glycol market has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year. In late February, the propylene glycol market was briefly supported by tight supply, and then rapidly declined and continued to decline. In April, the overall propylene glycol market continued to decline weakly, and the focus of the propylene glycol market continued to decline. As of May 9th, the price of propylene glycol in the market had reached its lowest level for the year 2024.

From the annual comparison chart of propylene glycol, it can be seen that the current market price of propylene glycol has dropped to a low level in nearly four years.

Analysis of the influencing factors of the decline in the propylene glycol market in April:

In April, downstream demand for propylene glycol in China was weak, and the inquiry atmosphere in the propylene glycol market was poor, with few new transactions. Downstream users mostly restocked small orders that were just needed. In the early stage of May Day Labor Day, the propylene glycol market did not experience effective pre holiday stocking, and the overall stocking atmosphere remained weak. The overall supply and demand transmission of propylene glycol was slow, and on-site inventory was relatively loose. Therefore, insufficient demand and supply pressure were the main reasons for the gradual decline of the propylene glycol market.

Can the propylene glycol market rise against the trend in May?

Firstly, let’s take a look at the specific performance of the domestic propylene glycol market in the first week after the return of Labor Day. From the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, it can be seen that after the holiday, the performance of the domestic propylene glycol market is still weak, and the center of gravity of the propylene glycol market continues to dip downwards. The overall trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. On May 9th, the price of propylene glycol in the market was around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, with a post holiday decline of 1.31%.

Fundamental analysis:

At present, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand in the propylene glycol market, and the overall downstream demand still needs to be restored. In terms of supply, the overall shipment of propylene glycol in the current market is still under pressure, and the supply-demand game on the market is still ongoing. In terms of cost, the market for methanol and epoxy propane in the raw material end is operating at a high level, which brings no less cost pressure to propylene glycol. Propylene glycol factories are not willing to continue to lower prices under cost pressure, but the weak demand side cannot be ignored. Therefore, the current propylene glycol market is in a stalemate game between supply, demand, and cost, and the propylene glycol market will mostly operate weakly in May.

Technical analysis: Market prices are at a low level within the year, and there is still downside risk in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the current market price of propylene glycol is at a low point in one year, a low point in two years, and a low point in three years.

From the graph, it can be seen that since March 9, 2023, the propylene glycol 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. The current two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) in the next 7 days is not high.

In summary, data analysts from Business Society believe that as we enter May, the overall supply-demand contradiction in the domestic propylene glycol market has not been effectively improved, and the market boost on both the supply and demand sides is insufficient. Currently, there is no obvious positive support in the propylene glycol market. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be some downward risk in the propylene glycol market in May, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 30, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8466 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8033 yuan/ton), the price increased by 433 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.39%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the overall market situation of butanone in China showed a continuous upward trend. In early April, the butanone market returned to calm after a slight fluctuation. In the latter half of the year, the market for butanone saw a significant increase, and market prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. By the end of April, the high price of butanone in the domestic market had risen to around 8700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Rise of Butanone Market in April

In terms of cost: In April, the overall market situation for carbon tetrachloride after the ether end of butanone raw material continued to operate at a high level, and the support for butanone in terms of cost has always been strong.

In terms of supply: In April, some domestic butanone factories executed pre orders and mainly shipped pre order goods. Therefore, the overall supply pressure in butanone factories was relatively small, and spot circulation in some regions was tight. The supply side supported the continuous increase of butanone market prices.

In terms of demand: In April, the overall terminal demand in the butanone field improved. In the first ten days, downstream purchases of butanone were mainly for rigid needs. In the second ten days, the butanone market welcomed small-scale pre holiday stocking, and the overall demand support for butanone improved.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the atmosphere in the butanone market is relatively mild. As the weather gets warmer, the demand in the terminal market will continue to be released. The butanone industry has a good mentality, and the butanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

After the holiday, the bisphenol A market showed some calmness, and the market offer on the first trading day was not clear. The trading parties had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with the main factories maintaining stable quotes and Lihua Yiwei Yuan continuing to list prices at 9600 yuan/ton. In terms of the market, negotiations in North China were close to 9600 yuan/ton, while negotiations in East China were between 9800-10000 yuan/ton. Short term fluctuations in the bisphenol A market were limited.

Cost support has weakened, and the domestic phenol market has limited fluctuations after the holiday. Some regions have negotiated a slight decline, with prices in the East China region at 7950-8000 yuan/ton. However, due to a slight decrease in post holiday port inventory, holders have little intention of lowering prices. However, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among buyers, and trading in the phenol market after the holiday is limited. The mainstream market for acetone in China has slightly declined, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The negotiations in the East China region are between 8150-8200 yuan/ton, while those in the South China region are at 8300 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and there is insufficient trading volume after the holiday.

The downstream epoxy resin market operates quietly, the market lacks information guidance, and the factory’s listed price remains stable. The downstream just needs to follow up, and there is little turnover. The mainstream negotiations of East China liquid resin and Mount Huangshan solid resin are both 12600-12900 yuan/ton. The downstream PC market is experiencing a weak downturn, with some regions experiencing a decrease of around 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The negotiated price for injection grade low-end materials in East China ranges from 14500 to 16500 yuan/ton. The spot market is operating weakly, and short-term business confidence is clearly lacking.

During the holiday, crude oil continued to decline, and the bisphenol A industry chain operated weakly in its first trading day. At present, there is not much fluctuation in the supply of bisphenol A, and downstream co production lines mainly digest inventory or contracts. There is currently a lack of positive support in the upstream and downstream. In the short term, we will pay attention to the trend of bisphenol A factories, and Business Society expects the bisphenol A market to adjust and operate within a certain range.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite remained stable in April. On April 30th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7550 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the initial price of 7550 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

In April, the domestic ice crystal market remained stable and cautious, with major ice crystal enterprises experiencing significant fluctuations in their quotations. The strong rise in raw material prices in April has increased the cost pressure on the cryolite market. Most companies have offered firm and stable prices, while some companies have been affected by demand, resulting in poor factory shipments and a slight decrease in cryolite prices. Although upstream prices continue to rise, due to strong resistance towards high priced ice crystals in the downstream market and limited trading, the downstream market is mostly bearish, suppressing the rise in ice crystal prices. Therefore, most ice crystal manufacturers remain stable in their quotations despite strong raw material prices.

The upstream fluorite market rose strongly in April. As of April 30th, the average price of fluorite was 3675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.38% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3487.50 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with upstream mining being tight and backward mines continuing to be phased out. In terms of new mines, the progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite market is slow. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and some mines have undergone safety hazard inspections. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of goods on site is tight, resulting in a continuous increase in fluorite prices.

Market forecast: In the near future, the price of ice crystal raw materials has been strong and rising, and the cost of ice crystal is under great pressure. The market mentality has a positive impact, and downstream demand is average. Ice crystal prices are relatively resistant, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively light. However, facing the continuous rise of upstream prices, ice crystal enterprises may face pressure to increase. It is expected that the ice crystal market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage, and prices may slightly rise. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market in April first sorted out and then rose, with the increase in spot prices of various brands concentrated in the latter half of the year. As of April 30th, the benchmark price for the mixed PC of Shengyishe was around 16533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of+2.48% compared to April 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above figure that the price of bisphenol A increased significantly in April. Since the beginning of the month, the shutdown and maintenance of domestic bisphenol A plants have increased, and the current industry operating rate is only around 60%, dropping to a new low in half a year. There are still some plants with maintenance plans in May. Meanwhile, in the second half of the month, there was a significant increase in phenol and acetone, and the cost support for bisphenol A enterprises was evident. However, from a downstream perspective, the transfer intensity is average, and it is expected that the short-term bisphenol A market will fluctuate at high levels, maintaining strong support for PC spot prices.

In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of domestic PC remained stable in April, with an industry average operating rate of over 77%. At the end of the month, two maintenance plans were delayed, and some manufacturers had the possibility of resuming work. In addition, the production of Hengli’s new equipment increased on-site supply, resulting in an overall abundant supply of goods and a loosening trend in PC supply side support.

In terms of demand: PC consumption within the month will continue to follow the previous weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for just in need. Downstream enterprises have poor stocking enthusiasm, with no increase in pre holiday stocking and weak demand. Buyers have some resistance to high priced sources, and the demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

After the consolidation of the PC market in April, it rose. Upstream bisphenol A rose, boosting the cost side of PC. The load of domestic polymerization plants remained stable after a decline. The demand side consumption lags behind, and the on-site trading is weak. It is expected that the PC market will mainly consolidate and operate after the holiday.