According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 11, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6325.00 yuan/ton, up 5.20% from July 1.

The acrylic acid market has been steadily rising since July. Recently, the market price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support has weakened. With the support of some equipment maintenance and supply constraints, acrylic acid companies have steadily increased their quotations, and downstream inquiries have increased their enthusiasm. However, the purchasing mentality is still cautious, and the main focus is on following up in an appropriate amount.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently slightly declined. On July 10th, the reference price for propylene was 6370.75, a decrease of 2.26% compared to July 1st (6518.25).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current factory equipment load is not high, and there is some support for supply in the market. Market transactions are mainly in demand, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be gently sorted and operated in the short term, and more market news guidance is needed.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on January 1st was 9025 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6300 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 30.19%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1, and 6200 yuan/ton on June 30. In the first half of 2023, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price decreased by 30.86%.

2、 Market analysis

According to the K-bar chart from January to June 2023, it can be seen that the price of phosphoric acid decreased significantly in the first half of the year. April saw the largest decline, with a maximum decline of 14.41%.

The price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and fell in the first half of 2023. In the first half of the year, the market for raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate rock weakened, resulting in insufficient cost support. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and trading continues to be light, with bearish sentiment mainly on the market. There are fewer downstream purchases, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Under the influence of weak factors of cost and demand, the domestic phosphoric acid price trend continued to decline from January to May. In June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus stopped falling and stabilized, while the trend of raw materials for phosphoric acid was on the watch. The market price stopped falling and slightly increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Due to poor raw material prices in the first half of 2023, cost support is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the trend of the phosphoric acid market continues to be weak. Recently, the stock of raw material yellow phosphorus has been tight, and market inquiries have increased. The phosphoric acid market has stabilized and is expected to show an upward trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 7th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the formic acid market continued to maintain a stable trend, with a price center of around 3900 yuan/ton, without significant fluctuations. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has been weak and stable, and the market for raw material methanol has fluctuated in a narrow range. The cost support is average, and downstream replenishment on demand is stable. The trading atmosphere in the formic acid market continues to be at the previous level.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for sulfuric acid was 188.00 on July 6th, a decrease of 2.08% compared to July 1st (192.00); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on July 6th was 2155.83, a decrease of 1.11% compared to July 1st (2180.00).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is temporarily limited, and supply and demand support is still acceptable. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4650.00 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 4712.50 yuan/ton, up 1.34%, down 2.84% month on month, and down 11.92% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market situation has been sorted out. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2100 yuan/ton for cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2160 yuan/ton for cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong offers a price of 2250-2250 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying region of Shandong is 2070-2090 yuan/ton.

After the recent rise of methanol market, it was temporarily consolidated, with good cost support. Downstream procurement remained just in demand, and Paraformaldehyde analysts from the business community predicted that the price might rise slightly.

In June, the domestic DME market in Henan declined significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4125 yuan/ton on June 1, and 3760 yuan/ton on June 28. The monthly decline was 8.85 yuan, 2.34% lower than the same period last year.

As of June 28th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3150 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3200 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3100 yuan/ton

In June, the decline in the domestic dimethyl ether market increased and deepened. In the first half of June, the dimethyl ether market in Henan region experienced a significant decline. Due to the significant suppression of downstream demand, upstream inventory quickly accumulated, and upstream prices were significantly adjusted to stimulate sales. The surrounding markets have also fallen synchronously, while crude oil prices have slightly adjusted, and the prices of related liquefied gas products have fluctuated at the bottom, supporting weak news. Entering the second half of the month, the market for dimethyl ether has seen a stable review. Under demand constraints, the positive news has limited boost, while the bearish trend has led to a clear and steady decline in the overall market,

The raw material methanol market first fell and then rose, strengthening support for dimethyl ether. Especially in the second half of June, the market started to recover, but the overall supply on the market was loose, with limited changes in demand, which suppressed price increases. From June 1st to 28th, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2161 yuan/ton to 2103 yuan/ton. The price fell by 2.68% during the cycle.

Overall, the current price of dimethyl ether has fallen to a low point, but the industry has a strong bearish attitude towards the future market. It is expected to enter July, with high and stable weather further suppressing demand and the dimethyl ether market operating in a weak and volatile manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of isopropanol continued to decline in June. On June 1st, the average price of isopropanol was 6670 yuan/ton, while on June 29th, the average price was 6460 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 3.15%.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: Comparison of price trends of acetone and isopropanol

The domestic market price of isopropanol continued to decline in June. The isopropanol market remains light this month, with poor trading conditions and cautious wait-and-see behavior. The upstream acetone market fell, cost support weakened, and the market price of isopropanol followed suit. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6200-6400 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu region are around 6700-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of acetone has decreased this month. On June 1st, the average price of acetone was 5612.5 yuan/ton, while on June 29th, the average price was 5407.5 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 3.65%. At present, the focus of the domestic acetone market has fallen after rising, and the negotiating focus has declined. As the end of the month approaches, there has been a recent replenishment of imported goods and an increase in port inventory; The profit of the phenol ketone factory has increased, and the operating rate is expected to increase in July; In terms of demand, the factory completely needs to follow up. Although intermediate traders have participated, their inventory willingness is not high, and downstream proactive replenishment is not high. It is expected that the market will adjust weakly in the next few days at the end of the month, with little market volatility.

In terms of raw material propylene, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell first and then rose in June, with a slight increase overall. At the beginning of June, the market average was 6460.75/ton, with an average price of 6513.25/ton on June 29th, a monthly increase of 0.81%. Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that due to the incomplete maintenance of some devices, on-site supply has decreased. At the same time, during the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream procurement is still good, and the trading atmosphere has improved, with upstream actively pushing up. It is expected that the propylene market will digest the increase in the short term, with limited room for further upward growth.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the domestic isopropanol market prices have fallen this month. Upstream acetone market prices remain declining, while propylene (Shandong) market prices have slightly increased, with average cost support. Traders and downstream users have poor purchasing enthusiasm and are cautious in actual orders. Overall, there is insufficient confidence in the isopropanol market, so it is better to wait and see. It is expected that the isopropanol market will temporarily stabilize in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. In June, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Overall, the market price of white carbon black remained stable in June, with a mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations was stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking was average. Manufacturers mainly offered discounts and took orders, but the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On June 28th, the chemical index stood at 801 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 33.95% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main factor, and the range of price fluctuations is limited.

Price trend

The domestic POM market has been negative this month, with spot prices falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 30th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.29% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region fell in June. Formaldehyde has been mainly fluctuating and declining in the past three months, and the market has continued to decline this month. The raw material methanol first fell and then rose, and formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally. However, the demand for downstream panel factories was weak. When methanol fell, formaldehyde followed suit, but when methanol rose, the momentum of formaldehyde rise was weak, and the overall formaldehyde market was at a low level.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained high in June, and some maintenance enterprises in the early stage resumed work. The current industry load is close to full capacity at 93.53%. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

This month, POM terminal enterprises have weak stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate of terminal enterprises has not improved. The consumption release situation is negative, and the driving effect on spot prices is limited. Traders lack confidence. It is expected that as the temperature increases, there will still be expectations of a decrease in downstream load. Buyers will buy up instead of falling, with a wait-and-see mentality and flexible real order transactions.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market fell this month. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Industry inventory pressure is accumulating, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are operating at a low level and have a relatively low demand for replenishment, resulting in low actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market will continue to be weak at the beginning of next month.