1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, pure benzene rose first, then fell, and then stabilized this month, with relatively low price fluctuations. On March 1st, the price was between 7000-7420 yuan/ton (with an average price of 7210 yuan/ton); On March 31st, the price was between 7153-7300 yuan/ton (average price 7227 yuan/ton), an increase of 0.11% this month and a decrease of 8.86% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This month, the pure benzene market was hit by multiple bearish factors, with prices fluctuating and falling. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly, with a bearish cost side. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in February. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and market interest in purchasing pure benzene is average, dragging down pure benzene on the demand side.

This month, Sinopec has raised the price of pure benzene by a total of 300 yuan/ton to 7300 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

The spring maintenance peak of refineries in the United States has ended, and demand may increase, coupled with global supply tightening, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 05 contract rose by $74.37/barrel, or 1.92%, by $1.40/barrel; ICE oil futures 05 contract rose by $0.99 per barrel, or 1.26%, at $79.27 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2305, rose 0.9 yuan to 524.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 4.1 yuan to 528.5 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

External market: FOB South Korea increased by $6 to $964/ton, CFR China increased by $6 to $968.5/ton, and FOB Southeast Asia increased by $6 to $927.5/ton. FOB Rotterdam fell by $10 to $1000 per ton, while FOB USG fell by 3 cents to 379 cents per gallon.

The short-term weakness of fundamentals is difficult to improve. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate, with sufficient supply on the market. In the short term, pure benzene will continue to show a weak trend, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

In March, the market for styrene butadiene rubber was weak and declining. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 31, the price of 1502 butadiene benzene was 11341 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.94% from 12058 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, while the price of styrene has narrowed and stabilized, resulting in weaker cost support; In March, the start of downstream tire factories fluctuated slightly, and the new demand for styrene butadiene rubber was weak. In late March, the market turnover was light, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber was significantly reduced, and the market price of styrene butadiene rubber was lower.

In March, the price of butadiene, the raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, significantly decreased, and the price of styrene narrowed, resulting in a downward trend in the cost of styrene butadiene rubber. According to monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.96% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of March 31st, the price of styrene was 8458 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from 8558 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market fell in March, which had a bearish impact on styrene butadiene rubber. As of March 31st, the price was at 11525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 12020 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The operating rate of downstream tire companies in March has temporarily remained around 70%, and there has been no significant increase in demand for styrene butadiene rubber. In addition, the low price of natural rubber makes styrene butadiene rubber less advantageous. The demand side for styrene butadiene rubber in March was mainly weak.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that there is currently no significant improvement in downstream construction in the short term, and the demand for styrene butadiene rubber is expected to be weak. In addition, the supply side is expected to change little in April. However, multiple oil producing countries are jointly reducing production, and it is expected that crude oil prices will run high. styrene butadiene rubber may receive cost support, and it is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will fluctuate widely in April.

DBP prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 31, the DBP price was 9675 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.79% compared to the DBP price of 9412.50 yuan/ton on March 1. Plasticizer DBP enterprises started steadily, DBP supply was sufficient, and raw material prices were supported by rising prices. In March, DBP prices fluctuated and rose.

Raw material prices fluctuated and rose in March

According to the price monitoring by the Business Society, as of March 31, the price of n-butanol was 7766.67 yuan/ton, up 10.43% from March 1, when the price of n-butanol was 7033.33 yuan. The start-up of n-butanol enterprises has been stable. As the temperature rises, downstream demand rebounds, n-butanol prices fluctuate and rise, DBP cost support increases, and the upward momentum for DBP in the future increases.

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of March 31, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8625 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.07% compared to the price of 8475 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the price of ortho-xylene fluctuated and increased, with a strong willingness to stand up for phthalic anhydride. In March, the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant, and the upward momentum for DBP remained.

Aftermarket expectations

DBP data analysts from the Business News Agency believe that in March, plasticizer enterprises started operations stably and DBP supply was sufficient; In terms of raw materials, the price of phthalic anhydride rose first and then fell, the market for phthalic anhydride remained stagnant, the price of n-butanol rose significantly, and the cost of DBP raw materials rose. The cost of plasticizer DBP is rising, and the demand is weak. The price of DBP is fluctuating and rising. In the future, the market for phthalic anhydride is stagnant, and the price of n-butanol is rising. The support for DBP growth remains. It is expected that the price of DBP will fluctuate and consolidate at a high level in the future.