Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (April 14): 12583 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber was 12583 yuan / ton on Thursday, down 1.31% from the previous day. The ex factory prices of some SBR manufacturers were reduced, and the offers of traders were slightly adjusted. Since April, the price of raw material butadiene has fallen sharply, the price of styrene has increased slightly, and the cost support is slightly weaker than that in the early stage; The start-up of styrene butadiene rubber plant is lower than that in the early stage, but the overall supply is sufficient; The downstream construction started slowly and the support was slightly weak. According to the monitoring of business agency, the mainstream offer in the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market was around 12350 ~ 12800 yuan / ton on the 14th.

Future forecast: the supply side is loose and the downstream start-up demand is limited. It is expected that the price of styrene butadiene rubber will be weak and volatile in the later stage.

Trade name: lithium hydroxide

Latest price (April 13): 478666.66 yuan / ton

The lithium oxide market was 32.0% higher than that on April 13. At present, the price of upstream lithium carbonate is weak, which has little impact on lithium hydroxide for the time being. The wait-and-see mentality of operators is strengthened, the market supply side is increased, but the demand side is slowed down, the spot of mainstream large manufacturers is still tight, and the focus of market negotiation is temporarily stable.

It is expected that in the short term, the lithium hydroxide Market will mainly wait and see at a high level.

On April 12, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market was 343500-345000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 344250 yuan / ton, an increase of 250 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On the supply side, the market expects that with the improvement of the import side in April, the overall supply will improve to a certain extent after some Indonesian sources enter the market. On the demand side, the previously affected enterprises in Shenzhen have resumed production recently, but the downstream demand has not fully recovered due to various factors. Therefore, the market is mainly on the sidelines, and it is expected that the tin price will remain high and volatile in the future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on April 11 was 5100 yuan / ton, down 0.33% from the previous trading day and 4.08% year-on-year.

Oil prices continued to fall today, and cost support weakened. The domestic dynamic clearing policy and anti epidemic sealing and control measures will inevitably make people face large-scale and long-term sealing and control. It is expected that the demand is weak and the logistics is limited. The production cost of textile enterprises is under pressure, the comprehensive starting load of looms is declining, and the output of polyester factories is also reduced. As of April 11, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 1.057 million tons, an increase of 86500 tons, an increase of 8.91%, and 62500 tons, an increase of 6.28%, compared with last Thursday. The port continued to accumulate inventory.

Forecast: the bearish atmosphere is strong and remains low.

The domestic aggregate MDI market declined in a narrow range, mainly because the terminal demand is still weak, and some regions basically maintain the rigid demand for small orders. Traders offer scarce, more bearish outlook. The lower reaches saw the downturn of the market and increased the atmosphere of inquiry, but the transaction was rare.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from April 2 to 8, the domestic aggregate MDI market price fell from 19316 yuan / ton to 19200 yuan / ton, with a weekly price decline of 0.60%, a month on month increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.76%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of April 8:

Region, Wanhua, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 19000-19200 yuan / ton, 18800-19000 yuan / ton

East China, 19300-19400 yuan / ton, 18900-19200 yuan / ton

South China, 19100-19200 yuan / ton, 18800-19000 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of April 8:

Raw material pure benzene: affected by the increase of domestic pure benzene maintenance units, the decline of output and the expected reduction of arrival in April, the subsequent supply of pure benzene will be reduced as a whole. The main downstream styrene still has expected shutdown devices, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to continue to decline.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: domestic aniline maintains a high consolidation pattern. The aniline plant has reduced the load, the long and short news on the supply side is common, the sentiment of downstream and traders tends to be cautious, and the purchase is biased towards rigid demand.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally and has a maintenance plan in May; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may still be dominated by shock consolidation.

The price of nitrile was 2440 yuan / ton, up 25% compared with that of the previous day. On the one hand, Lanhua nitrile plant is shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. On the other hand, although the price of raw material acrylonitrile fluctuated at a low level, the price of butadiene remained high, the cost side continued to support, and the market offer was firm.

Future forecast: there is little pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber, coupled with higher costs and tight supply expectations in the later stage, nitrile rubber is expected to be strong at a high level in the later stage.

Zinc price rose on April 6

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on April 6, and the zinc market recovered. On April 6, the zinc price was 27400 yuan / ton, up 1.95% from 26876 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with 2021, the price of zinc increased by 24.47% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

After the festival, the downstream enterprises replenished the warehouse, and the zinc price rose, but the demand of zinc ingot spot market was weak due to the epidemic; The zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market decreased, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the supply and demand of zinc market were weak.

Future forecast

Both supply and demand are weak. After the festival, the demand for replenishment by downstream enterprises rises, and the demand affected by the epidemic is weak. It is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

Precious metal prices continued to move down this week

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average early price of silver market was 5001.67 yuan / kg, down 0.69%, down 4.08% from the average early price of 5214.67 yuan / kg in the spot market last Friday; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the month (March 1), the early average price was 4928.33 yuan / kg, up 1.49%; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 4.86%.

On March 31, the spot market price of gold was 393.93 yuan / g, down 0.04% on a daily basis, down 1.51% from the early average price of 399.98 yuan / G on Friday (March 1), and up 1.71% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.79%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Fundamentals list

1. Global official gold reserve data

According to the latest data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as of the end of January 2022, the global official gold reserves totaled 35536.8 tons. Among them, the euro zone (including the European Central Bank) totaled 10772.5 tons, accounting for 52.5% of its total foreign exchange reserves.

Domestically, the latest data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange showed that the gold reserves of the people’s Bank of China remained unchanged at 1948.3 tons at the end of February, the same as that at the end of January 2022.

2. Overseas news

US President Biden proposed an annual budget of US $5.8 trillion for fiscal year 2023; The budget proposal predicts a deficit of $1.15 trillion in fiscal year 2023; The 2023 budget will raise taxes on the super rich and enterprises, and increase defense and police spending; The budget proposal requires people with assets of more than $100 million to pay at least 20% federal income tax. John Yarmuth, chairman of the House Budget Committee, said Congress may have to raise the debt ceiling around January 1, 2023. He said that raising the debt ceiling is a possibility, or use the budget process to pass. Earlier on Monday (March 28), US President Biden proposed a US $5.8 trillion budget, and the proposed tax increase reached a record high.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In terms of futures, the night trading was favorable due to the conflict negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, and the risk aversion decreased on the news side. In the short term, the upward trend of precious metal prices is weak.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the recent market situation of formaldehyde in Shandong fell. On March 31, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1452.50 yuan / ton, and on April 1, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1447.50 yuan / ton, down 0.34%. The current price rose 7.62% month on month, and the current price fell 1.31% year-on-year.

The recent formaldehyde market is weak and low. As of April 1, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1460-1500 yuan / ton. Recently, the market of raw material methanol has declined weakly, and the cost support is general. Due to the difficulty of cargo transportation, the demand of downstream plate factories has weakened, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicts that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong is dominated by a weak decline.

Aluminum prices fell slightly on the 31st

According to the data of business agency, on March 31, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22640 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 0.44%, a year-on-year increase of 31.81%, an increase of 0.35% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 11.14%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.60% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.11% recently.