1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after falling this week. On November 26, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11000-11240 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On December 3, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9300-10300 yuan / ton, down 16.82% from last week, up 16.88% from the beginning of the year and up 20.7% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: affected by the newly discovered new crown variant strain, the price of crude oil continued to fall, the external market lacked confidence, and the price fell. The price of crude oil and styrene fell, and the price of pure benzene continued to fall this week. Due to inventory pressure in Shandong, prices have been lowered continuously, and the price difference between East China and Shandong has widened. During the week, low-cost goods from Shandong flowed into East China, which suppressed the market atmosphere in East China, and the market as a whole was weak. On Friday (December 3), the price of pure benzene was 6100-6450 yuan / ton (the average price was 6310 yuan / ton), and the average price decreased by 360 yuan / ton or 5.4% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 46.54%.

This week, the price ladder of nitric acid fell and the price fell broadly. On Friday (December 3), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2350 yuan / ton, down 10.19% from last week and up 23.68% from the same period last year. Nitric acid market production exceeds sales, and the quotation declines.

Raw material pure benzene and nitric acid continue to decline, and the cost support is difficult to maintain. Last week, a 100000 t / a unit in Jinling was restarted. At present, the operating rate in Shandong is normal and the supply is loose; This week, Yantai Wanhua aniline entered the market, the supply in East China increased, the shipping mood of the industry was strong, and the price continued to fall. This week, the high-end execution contract and low-end delivery of aniline coexisted in East China. Downstream purchasing has improved, but the mentality is still cautious.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene: there are still ships arriving at subsequent ports, and the inventory continues to increase; Bargain hunting in the downstream and the market atmosphere picked up; Crude oil and styrene fluctuated steadily. Overall, it is expected that the consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week. Nitric acid: raw material support is insufficient, nitric acid market demand is poor, and enterprise inventory pressure is high.

The supply side of aniline Market is loose, the downstream demand maintains rigid demand, and the trend of cost side is moderate. Generally speaking, aniline consolidation is the main trend next week, and there is room for inventory decline. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 2, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8366 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 28 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9433 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1067 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.31%.

This week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell sharply, and the focus of on-site transactions continued to decline. Since the beginning of the week, affected by the sharp decline in international oil prices, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the field was calm, the confidence of operators was frustrated, and the offer price of n-butanol factory was weakly lowered. On the 29th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 8700-9100 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton from the end of last week. The downstream users of n-butanol have a strong wait-and-see mood and are cautious in preparing goods. They mainly digest the raw materials in the early stage, and the support on the demand side is weak. The n-butanol market continues to run downward. At the same time, the n-butanol inventory also gradually accumulates. Near the weekend, the n-butanol factory in Shandong has a strong willingness to ship goods, and the offer price has been greatly reduced again. On December 2, The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the average price is 8366 yuan / ton, with a maximum decline of 800 yuan / ton in a single day and 11.31% in a week. At present, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is still, and the procurement is mainly to maintain rigid demand.

In terms of index, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) on December 1 was 72.83, down 0.81 points from yesterday, down 44.74% from 131.79 points (2021-05-16), and up 143.66% from 29.89 points, the lowest point on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene, this week, the domestic propylene market in Shandong showed a decline as a whole. The overall trading atmosphere in the venue is general. According to the data monitoring of business society, as of December 2, the average ex factory price of propylene in Shandong was 7475 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.45% compared with the beginning of this week. On December 1, the propylene commodity index was 61.60, down 0.61 points from yesterday, down 38.92% from the highest point of 100.85 points in the cycle (September 7, 2011), and up 88.21% from the lowest point of 32.73 points on September 29, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream performance of n-butanol is still calm, and the effective support of n-butanol market is insufficient. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, Shandong n-butanol market is weak and needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand.

In November, the phenol market was depressed after falling, and under the restriction of demand, the phenol market has been adjusting in a weak range in the middle and late ten days. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of phenol in China was 9580 yuan / ton on November 1, and 9212 yuan / ton on November 30, a decrease of 3.84% in the month. As of the end of the month, the offers of major mainstream markets were as follows: 9200 yuan / ton in East China, 9200-9250 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, and 9200 yuan / ton in South China.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Monthly K column chart of ex factory price in East China

In early November, pure benzene maintained a range shock trend; It began to fall continuously in the latter ten days, and the price width weakened. On November 1, the price was 7550-7803 yuan / ton (the average price was 7640 yuan / ton); On November 30, the price was 6150-6650 yuan / ton (the average price was 6390 yuan / ton), the highest price of this month appeared on November 1, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on November 30, the price was 6390 yuan / ton. This month decreased by 16.36%, up 52.51% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest price in the month was 1250 yuan / ton. Affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, the pure benzene market mentality continued to be suppressed in the first half of the month, with the trend dominated by weak shocks. It is expected that the downstream units will restart and new units will be put into operation, the supply and demand side is expected to be good, and the market price support psychology still exists. In the last ten days, the decline of crude oil expanded, styrene maintained a continuous downward trend, and the upstream and downstream support of pure benzene was weak. In terms of supply, the load of a large unit in East China is increased, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in December; The arrival of cargo at East China port is concentrated, and the inventory rises rapidly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise in the later stage. Multiple bad news superimposed, and the price of pure benzene fell rapidly. The price of Sinopec remained stable in the first half of this month, and the price was reduced four times in the second half of this month, from 1150 yuan / ton to 6350-6450 yuan / ton.

In November, the overall performance of propylene market was more than enough, and the price was pushed up several times, but it was finally weak. At the beginning of the month, due to the sharp decline of international oil prices, the price of propylene accelerated to fall. At the same time, the overall downstream demand was general and the demand support was insufficient. After falling prices at the beginning of the month, propylene prices rebounded slightly in the second week, and then began to stabilize. However, there was no obvious positive factor support in the market, the price loosened and began to fluctuate and fall. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, lack of new orders, lack of downstream gas, and just need. The price of upstream raw materials has declined as a whole. Under the constraints of cost and demand, the price of enterprises has been continuously reduced in order to ship goods smoothly.

From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has maintained a stable trend.

market region Enterprise name Capacity (phenol / acetone) Proportion Device dynamics

North China Beijing yanshan petrochemical 16/10 15.9% 100%

Tianjin Zhongsha Tianjin 22/13 100%

Shandong region doy Lihua yiweiyuan 22/13 9.1% 100%

Northeast China Heilongjiang Blue Star Harbin 9.5/5.5 7.6% 90%

Jilin Jilin Petrochemical 9/5 100%

East China Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical 15/9 47.9% 100%

Ningbo Taihua 30/18 50% of construction starts within the month

Jiangsu Shiyou (Yangzhou) 20/12 After November 10, the project will be started with full load

Jiangsu Changshu Changchun 30/18 Increase the negative to 90% in the middle of the year

Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui 25/15 100%

Shanghai Cissa (Shanghai) 25/15 The construction started at 90%

South China Guangdong Huizhou Zhongxin 18/12 19.5%

Guangdong CNOOC shell 22/13 70% operation

The downstream bisphenol a market rose and fell frequently, and the overall focus decreased greatly compared with the previous month. According to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic bisphenol a market offered 18500 yuan / ton on November 1 and 16800 yuan / ton on November 30. In the market of bisphenol A, the auction price in East China was lower and the market confidence was severely damaged after the second half of the market. Although factories began to sell at a price of 17600 yuan / ton, the market was still in a downward trend. After that, the factory adjusted its price to 17000 yuan / ton to keep up with the market. The trading firm followed the market, and the market was stable at 16700 yuan / ton. In December, the domestic bisphenol a supply is expected to increase, and the start-up of new units is worthy of attention. The business society expects that the bisphenol a market is cautious in December, and the range is expected to be properly sorted and operated. For details, pay attention to the domestic factories and downstream demand.

From the perspective of business society, the domestic phenol market was mainly sorted and operated in December, and the downstream bisphenol A was newly put into operation in December. The new production capacity was mostly connected with Sinopec in the early stage, which had limited impact on the phenol Market and it was difficult to greatly improve the terminal. Business society expects the phenol Market to be adjusted and operated in December.

Data monitoring shows that polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, ionic degree of 10-30) in China has continued to decline slightly in recent two days (28-30 days). The mainstream market price on the 28th was about 18025 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was about 18000 yuan / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.14% on the second day. Recently, the macro level continues to be short, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the manufacturer’s price continues to adjust slightly.

From the perspective of industry, crude oil has fallen sharply since this month, the price of petrochemical raw materials has continued to decline, and the pressure on the production cost of water treatment has decreased; Although the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products continued to adjust slightly, and the adjustment range of polyacrylamide market in November was small, only about 1.37%.

As shown in the figure above, the market of raw material acrylonitrile has rebounded slightly recently, maintaining at about 15700 yuan / ton; It is reported that the recent startup rate of manufacturers is the lowest in the year, and the main manufacturers have concentrated accidental maintenance of devices in the fourth quarter, and the output has not increased significantly as scheduled. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the future. At present, Sinopec East China implements 15100 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton compared with last month.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid stopped falling and rose in the past two days. As of the 30th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 17000 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from 16866.67 yuan / ton on the 28th. The acrylic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is slightly weak, the inventory of production plants is low, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be stabilized in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

As for the future, crude oil fell sharply, the macro level continued to weaken, the price of raw materials decreased, the market support was insufficient, and the downstream demand was sluggish, resulting in the continued weak trend of polyacrylamide; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the macro weak environment, the polyacrylamide market is expected to be stable and weak in the short term.