Spot price: according to the price monitoring of the business community, on March 16, the quotation of domestic staple fiber was 7690 yuan, down more than 2% from last week.

Futures market: on March 16, the futures price of the pf2105 contract closed at 7162, down 4.48% from the previous trading day. During the day, it dropped to 7136, a new low in one month. Domestic polyester industry chain futures closed down one after another, with PTA in the upstream industry chain down more than 2%, ethylene glycol and cotton down more than 1%.

Analysis and Forecast: the international oil price fluctuates and falls, while the upstream PTA and ethylene glycol keep falling. After the festival, due to the early start of downstream market, demand is hot, domestic staple fiber production and sales and prices are rising. At present, the stock of raw materials is high, the price and production and sales are insufficient, the desire to replenish is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the domestic trade transactions are rare, the trade middlemen are affected by the market, arbitrage selling, and the price of polyester staple fiber is falling continuously. In the future, the accumulation pressure of short-term polyester staple fiber is still in, or still weak shock. However, in the medium term, with the advent of a new round of downstream procurement cycle, polyester staple fiber may rebound in the end of March and early April.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (March 15): 14700.00 yuan / ton

On March 15, the ex factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell by 933.33 yuan / ton, or 5.97%, compared with the quotation on March 12. The upstream propylene market rose slightly with good cost support, but the downstream DOP market showed a downward trend, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the supply of isooctanol was normal.

Recently, the ex factory price of ISO octanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 14000 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 12, the quotation of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7450.00 yuan / ton. This week, the price of PET bottle chips rose first and then decreased. The PTA Market of raw materials was weak, and the price of PET was adjusted in a narrow range. As of March 12, the price of pet increased by 22.13% compared with the same period last month. Although the recent trend was weak, the price of pet increased too much in the early stage The overall price is still high, and the market is in the stage of digesting inventory.

This week, the price of PET raw materials is weak, the market supply and demand is balanced, the negotiation center is stable, the inventory is high, the support of pet cost side is general, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, the downstream demand quantity is limited, and the short-term shock consolidation is dominant. At present, the mainstream reference price in North China is 7400-7600 yuan / T, the negotiation center is stable, and the wait-and-see is dominant. The negotiation in South China is flat, and the reference price is 6700-7200 yuan / T, The reference price in North China is 7000-7200 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 7200-7300 yuan / ton. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the overall market, and the purchasing enthusiasm is general.

Manufacturer / region: Quotation (yuan / ton) date

Zhejiang wankai polyester bottle chip 7400 March 12

Zhuhai China Resources Co., Ltd. ﹣ 7450 ﹣ March 12

Henan Anhua polyester bottle chip 7400 March 12

Yizheng Chemical fiber bottle chip

Xiamen Tenglong PET bottle chip Co., Ltd. 7300 March 12

Guangdong Taibao polyester bottle chip 7450 March 12

The maintenance of upstream pta3 devices increased in April, and the current operating rate of the industry was reduced to below 87%, which provided a favorable condition for alleviating the high inventory in the early stage. In the near future, the main price of PTA is 4400-4500 yuan / ton. The following is the price trend comparison chart of pet and PTA

Rubber and plastic index: on March 11, the rubber and plastic index was 826 points, flat with yesterday, down 22.08% from 1060 points (March 14, 2012), the highest point in the cycle, and up 56.44% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Pet analysts of business news agency believe that: Recently, the market of PET raw materials has declined, the pet market has a slight decline, the market supply and demand is balanced, and the early trend will be maintained in the short term. (to know more about the latest market trends of pet industry chain, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, help enterprises to operate, help stock investment, help futures investment, log in the business community’s small programs, release commodity prices, promote promotional products, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity prices.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: curve of P value of acrylic product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business club’s block list, as of March 11, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 12000 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the beginning of the week, 25% compared with February 11, and 65.14% compared with the same period last year.

At present, some units are shut down for maintenance, the market supply is tight, which supports the rise of acrylic acid price. The downstream has a certain resistance to the high price, but the procurement maintains the pace of rigid demand, and the acrylic acid market is strong.

Upstream propylene, as of March 10, Shandong propylene market price is generally stable. According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It was generally stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th, and generally rebounded on the 8th, with a total increase of 150-250 yuan / ton in the two days. At present, the market transaction is between 8400-8650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8450 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acrylic acid analysts of the business society, the current raw material propylene price is high, the cost support is strong, the spot supply is tight, the downstream is purchased on demand, and the market transaction is orderly. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 10, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 10300.00 yuan / ton. The price of domestic DMF was stable and the overall trend was stable, with an increase of 0.65% compared with the same period last week and 6.55% compared with the same period last month. The negotiation atmosphere was flat. At present, the shipment is smooth and the supply side is normal.

The domestic DMF market has a stable center of gravity, high price, stable operation of the overall market, high factory negotiation price, poor downstream demand, overall market negotiation, and stable upstream methanol market. The current reference price of DMF is 10300-10450 yuan / ton in East China market and 10550-10650 yuan / ton in South China market.

On March 9, the chemical industry index was 1045 points, up 7 points from yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 74.75% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the focus of negotiation is weak, the rising trend is slowing down, and the downstream demand is insufficient, so the possibility of price reduction is not ruled out. (to know more about the latest market dynamics of the industry chain, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, help enterprises to operate, help stock investment, help futures investment, log in the business community’s small programs, release commodity prices, promote promotional products, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity prices).

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of March 9, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 423.3 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on March 1, and increased by 20 yuan / ton or 4.96% compared with that at the end of February (reference average price of phosphorus ore on February 26 was 403.3 yuan / ton).

The market recovers in March and phosphate rock runs high and stable after rising

With the recovery of everything in March, China’s phosphorus ore market also ushered in a general rise in market prices. On the first day of the beginning of this month, most domestic phosphorus ore producing enterprises including Guizhou, Guangxi, Hubei and other places have increased the ex factory prices of phosphorus ore. The ex factory prices of 22% – 32% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou have been increased by a large margin. The ex factory prices of 22% grade phosphorus ore have been increased by 30-50 yuan / ton The quotation of phosphate rock platform is around 150-180 yuan / ton; the quotation of 28% grade phosphate rock factory is around 320-340 yuan / ton after adjustment; the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock factory is around 350-390 yuan / ton after adjustment. In Hubei Province, 28-30% grade ammonium phosphate ore is increased by 20-30 yuan / ton: after adjustment, the price of 30% ammonium phosphate ore is about 400 yuan / ton. Then, in early March, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole maintained a high and stable operation, some mining enterprises supplied orders from old customers, the spot supply was tight, the inquiry atmosphere was normal, the new order transaction was ok, the downstream market recovered orderly, and the phosphorus ore was given high and stable support. As of March 9, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was 423.3 yuan / ton, which was higher than that in early March Maintain high and stable operation.

On the downstream side, in March, the domestic yellow phosphorus Market as a whole was stable, medium and small, with enterprises supplying regular customers’ orders in an appropriate amount, and the focus of transaction maintained a slow upward trend. At present, the ex factory acceptance transaction reference price of Yunnan’s net phosphorus was 17100-17300 yuan / ton. As of March 9, according to the monitoring data of business society, the ex factory reference price of domestic Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus was 17633.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of March 1 (17250 yuan / ton)/ 2.22%.

The phosphorus ore market is gradually warming up, and the market price is stable and rising

In early March, the phosphorus ore market has gradually warmed up, and the plant operation of the recovery enterprises is gradually normal. Although the rising trend of the downstream Yellow Phosphorus slows down, the high-end price still supports the phosphorus ore. in addition, the downstream phosphorus fertilizer of the terminal is about to meet the peak demand season, which will also drive the phosphorus ore price to concentrate at a high level. Therefore, the phosphorus ore Data Engineer of the business society believes that the domestic phosphorus ore market price is stable and rising in the near future It’s more likely.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province dropped from 16100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 15533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.52%, up 142.08% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol fell this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 114.22 on March 5.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of manufacturers’ quotations, the factory quotations of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 15600 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 15200 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s quotation of ISO octanol this week was 15800 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week Down 700 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of ISO octanol fell slightly this week. The quoted price dropped from 8543.73 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8372.73 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.00%, up 26.04% compared with the same period last year. The upstream raw material market prices fell slightly, affected by the supply and demand side, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

Isooctanol downstream market, this week DOP factory prices fell slightly. DOP quotation fell from 13800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13175.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.53%, up 84.70% over the same period of last year. Downstream DOP prices fell, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement was general, and the demand for ISO octanol was general. The future market operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of March, the market trend of isooctanol in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the raw material support was weak, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, and the supply of isooctanol was general. Isooctanol analysts of business society think: in mid March, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the market of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly.

Saudi energy minister Abdel Aziz bin Salman announced on the evening of March 4, local time, during the 14th meeting of oil ministers of member states of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non OPEC oil producing countries, that the period of Saudi Arabia’s voluntary crude oil production reduction of 1 million barrels per day would be extended by one month to the end of April this year. After the news came out, the international oil price rose rapidly in the short term. The price of West Texas light crude oil in the United States and Brent crude oil in the United Kingdom both reached the highest level in more than a year.

Meeting of oil ministers of OPEC member states and some non OPEC oil producing countries (picture from Saudi energy ministry) △ meeting of oil ministers of OPEC member states and some non OPEC oil producing countries (picture from Saudi energy ministry)

As the world’s largest crude oil exporter in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s every move in crude oil production attracts global attention. Previously, Saudi energy minister Abdel Aziz had promised that, in addition to strictly abiding by the production reduction agreements reached by OPEC member states and some non OPEC oil producing countries, Saudi Arabia would cut an additional 1 million barrels per day of crude oil production in February and March 2021 to ensure the balance of supply and demand in the global market. Statistics show that Saudi Arabia has achieved an additional production reduction of about 850000 B / D in the past February. According to the OPEC survey, as of December 2020, the crude oil inventory of the SCO countries has declined for the fifth consecutive month.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, after the crazy rise of DOP price after the festival, the DOP market lost its support at the end of February, the plasticizer DOP price fell sharply, the industrial chain support was insufficient, and the DOP price fell back. As of March 5, the DOP price was 13175.00 yuan / ton, down 7.05% compared with 14175 yuan / ton on February 25. Support is no longer, DOP market cliff type fall.

Isooctanol tends to stabilize

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol rose sharply after the festival, then the rising trend of isooctanol slowed down, and the price of isooctanol fell on the 25th. The sharp rise in the price of ISO octanol led to the rise of DOP price, and then the price of ISO octanol fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, DOP lost its support for the rise, the price of DOP fell precipitously, the rising power of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Phthalic anhydride tends to be stable

From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply after the festival, and became stable after the 23rd. Since March, the price of phthalic anhydride has continued to fall, the cost of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP has continued to decline, and the cost of DOP has decreased. The downward pressure of DOP in the future has increased, and the rising power has weakened.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that since February, the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC market followed the surge after the festival. However, after February 25, the PVC price continued to fall, the downstream demand declined, and the downstream customers were mainly just needed. Affected by the surge of DOP price, PVC had a strong resistance to high price DOP, the downstream market was weak, and the positive and negative pressure of plasticizer DOP market weakened.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that the soaring DOP market after the festival has increased the cost pressure on downstream customers, and the downstream customers are more resistant to high DOP. Since the end of February, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have been falling, the cost of DOP has been falling, the DOP market has lost its support, the DOP market has continued to fall, and the DOP price has fallen sharply. In the future, DOP operation rate remains low, DOP supply decreases, raw material downward trend still exists, DOP cost expectation declines, PVC market expectation weakens and has strong resistance to high price DOP, DOP demand declines, DOP rise loses support, DOP price still falls in the future.

1、 Melamine price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of melamine products)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of March 4, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 8100 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 7.05% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 15.17% compared with February 4, and increased by 36.52% compared with the same period last year.

Recently, the melamine market has been stable after a sharp rise. In terms of raw materials, the overall price of upstream urea is weak, but there is still room for support. At present, the supply side of manufacturers is tight, the downstream enterprises are gradually recovering, and the market consumption is expected to increase steadily. However, with the high price rise, the downstream enterprises are cautious about high price and mainly purchase on demand. At present, the melamine market is stable at a high level.

Upstream urea, March 3, Shandong urea market fell. On the demand side: the agricultural demand started gradually, the willingness of terminal procurement gradually increased, and the agricultural procurement in mainstream areas was cautious; the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increased, and some downstream products were still cautious, most of them were market-oriented, and there was demand potential in the later industry. Supply side: on the supply side, at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 73%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The manufacturers have little pressure on shipping. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the inventory accumulated during the festival is also declining.

3、 Future forecast

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that in the near future, the price of upstream urea has weakened, the cost support has weakened slightly, and the wait-and-see mood in the middle and lower reaches has increased. However, the spot supply of melamine market is tight, and the market demand is gradually improving. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will mainly run at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.