1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black price was 7150 yuan / ton on November 30, with the price range of 100-300 yuan / ton. The carbon black price rose this month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Upstream and downstream

 

Since the third quarter, domestic carbon black prices have continued to rise due to the high strength of the tire industry chain and the de capacity and low opening rate of the coking carbon black industry chain. The northern region has entered the heating season, which will have an impact on the operating rate of coal tar carbon black industry. During the autumn and winter of 2020-2021, the air pollution control policies are strict. Some carbon black enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Fenwei plain and other areas have limited their production load, some large enterprises have started to limit their production by more than 20%, and carbon black enterprises in severe areas have started to limit their production by 50% It is expected that the inventory of carbon black industry will drop to 120000 tons by the end of October, which is 62% lower than that of the same period last year and 22% month on month. The inventory level is expected to continue to decline in the future. The operating rate of downstream all steel tire enterprises in Shandong is about 73%, which is about 5% higher than that of the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi steel tire enterprises is about 70%, which is 3% higher than that of the same period last year. In October, Shanxi will further eliminate about 7% of the coking capacity in the province, and will further push up the price of coal tar products in the medium term. At present, the inventory of carbon black industry is lower than the normal level, and the gap between supply and demand in the market is still obvious. Under the background of urgent demand for replenishment of carbon black, the price of carbon black may maintain an upward trend.

 

Customs data showed that China’s tire export volume in September maintained a double growth on the same month, and the foreign trade export situation was better. In addition, the global tire industry continued to warm up after the third quarter, so the production capacity demand for domestic tire enterprises is still very high.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

2020 is about to enter the last month, and the price may be stronger; in 2021, downstream demand will enter the traditional off-season, coupled with the coming Spring Festival holiday, analysts believe that the price of carbon black will rise steadily.

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Every year in the heating season, water treatment market is the most dazzling time of the year. In 2020, the situation is special. The “suspension” in the first three months of the first half of the year has brought great pressure on the development of the industry in the second half of the year. The market is not warm and the market is not hot. In this way, the traditional sales season of “gold, nine silver and ten” has even passed, and the time has come to November.

 

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This month is special because it is the beginning of heating season in our north. At this time of year, environmental inspection is particularly strict, and this year is no exception. On November 13, Henan Province, one of the main production areas of water treatment industry, issued the “notice on triggering the seasonal production control work plan of key industries in Henan Province in 2020″, requiring all districts to seriously implement it in combination with the actual situation.

 

Since then, the relevant water treatment plants in Gongyi City began to stop production, accept inspection and rectification. In particular, the supply side of the water treatment products in this area has given a predictable positive. As of the end of December, the end of the shutdown of this month and a half, if the spot situation is tense, then the market will get the first big positive support.

 

By the end of November, several manufacturers have issued price adjustment letters, increasing the ex factory price of polyacrylamide by about 5%, or by 500 yuan / ton. As shown in the picture: on November 23, Essen (China) released the product price adjustment letter.

 

In fact, the price rise of polyacrylamide benefited more from the second favorable support, that is, acrylonitrile rose sharply this month. According to the business association, at the end of October, the domestic mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was at 9300 yuan / ton. This month, the price of acrylonitrile was raised repeatedly, with a single increase of 400-500 yuan / ton and a monthly rise of 2000-3000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price is about 12250 yuan / ton, and in the last week of this month, the price of acrylonitrile has increased repeatedly The adjustment range is as high as 1950 yuan / ton. In terms of units, Sinopec’s settlement prices for acrylonitrile products sold in November were 9900 yuan / ton in North China and 9850 yuan / ton in East China respectively; Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 260000 ton acrylonitrile unit had a maintenance plan in December, and the specific situation needs to be further determined; Shandong Haijiang chemical’s 130000 ton acrylonitrile unit had a restart plan in December after it shut down in early August; Sinopec’s 240000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, postponed the restart until November 25, and the plant was shut down for maintenance on October 20. As shown in the picture, Henan Hancheng Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. released price increase information.

 

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Double benefits, sharp increase in cost side pressure, superimposed heating season environmental strict caused by manufacturers to stop production, polyacrylamide price rise power is sufficient.

 

However, the price of polyaluminum chloride, another important commodity in water treatment, has increased more obviously. According to the survey of business agency, the price of polyaluminum chloride in Henan has increased by about 300 yuan / ton, or 20-25%, this month. Although there is no cost factor caused by the sharp rise of raw materials, polyaluminum chloride is seriously in short supply, and even many companies have indicated that they want to transfer goods across regions Before the market provides the upward momentum support. However, in other regions with sufficient spot, the price rise is not so obvious. According to the price of domestic polyaluminum chloride monitored by the business agency, the price rise in Henan is obvious, while that in Hebei, Shandong, Hunan and other regions is not large.

 

In the future, the price of polyacrylamide, as the raw material acrylonitrile, rose sharply in the last week of this month, and the manufacturers were constrained by the cost pressure, so the price increase expectation was very strong. In fact, some enterprises issued the price increase letter in December. According to general manager he of Gongyi IKEA purification materials Co., Ltd., the company’s polyacrylamide will still be increased by 500 yuan / ton on December 1. As shown in the picture: on November 27, Essen (China) released the product price adjustment letter again.

 

In conclusion, according to the analysis of the business agency, in December, the production stoppage caused by environmental protection will continue, the shortage of polyaluminum chloride supply will intensify, and the cost pressure caused by the soaring price of acrylonitrile is difficult to be consumed rapidly in the short term. We expect that the price rise trend of water treatment products in the future market may continue.

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