On January 8, the PX commodity index was 55.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.19% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

 

According to statistics, in recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has remained volatile, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, the operation of other plants is stable temporarily, and the domestic p-xylene plant has been installed The market supply of p-xylene is normal and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable temporarily. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On January 7, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 10 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 820-822 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 840-842 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The decline of external market price has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

 

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WTI crude oil futures market in the United States recently fell to 62.70 USD / barrel, or 0.57 USD, while Brent crude oil futures fell to 68.27 USD / barrel, or 0.64 USD. U.S. crude oil stocks fell 5.95 million barrels in the week to January 3, a decrease of 4.064 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 7.8 million barrels. However, in the near future, the crude oil export in the Middle East has decreased, and the crude oil price rose sharply on August 8, which has a certain supporting effect on the cost of petrochemical products, while the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable.

 

In terms of PTA, the price of raw materials in the near future remains at the level of 4900-5000 yuan / ton, the PTA operating rate remains at about 85%, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is reduced to around 57%. Weaving enterprises show the phenomenon of reducing the number of orders and lack of stamina. In winter, the turnover of fabrics decreases month by month, while in spring, the order of fabrics is relatively limited. At the same time, near the end of the year, most enterprises are reducing prices to inventory in order to recover funds, and later loading and weaving factories will be shut down for holidays, PTA market price changes little, and the trend of p-xylene price is temporarily stable.

 

Recently, crude oil prices have risen slightly, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market, but the demand at the downstream of the terminal is general, and business analysts believe that PX market price may remain stable.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been stable in the near future. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2300-2350 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2500 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2150 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton; in South China is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton The delivery price is about 2650-2700 yuan / ton.

 

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2、 Cause analysis

 

Product: in the near future, due to the influence of rain and snow in the northern region, the transportation is limited, which makes it difficult for enterprises to ship goods. However, due to the low inventory of enterprises in the early stage, the overall inventory pressure of the market will not increase significantly in the short term, and the market is generally in a state of production and sales balance.

 

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the price continues to rise. At present, it is about 2110 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries are stable and soft, the terminal market demand is poor, and the enterprise’s shipping intention is high, but the transaction is light; PTA spot market continues to rise, at present, it is about 5022 yuan / ton.

 

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International: this week, the international acetic acid market is mainly stable, among which the price of acetic acid in North America is about 615 US dollars / ton; that in Asia is about 310-355 US dollars / ton; that in Europe is about 650 euros / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, due to the continuous high price of raw material methanol and the general low inventory of enterprises, the enterprises intend to push up in the near future, but near the Spring Festival and the logistics and transportation are not smooth, so the market mentality is cautious and mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the acetic acid market will maintain stability in a short period of time.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market price of DAP kept stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex factory price of 64% of DAP in China was 2200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price at the end of the week was 2200 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that of last week.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Products: at present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2450 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

 

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Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable, with small fluctuations in some areas. This week, the market price of sulfur remained stable with little fluctuation. The domestic liquid ammonia market is stable.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of DAP in business association, it is now the off-season of DAP, with less demand and low price. It is expected that the price of DAP will be mainly consolidated in the later period.

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1、 Price trend

 

The domestic toluene market was stable and volatile this week, down about 0.23% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

1. Product: compared with last week, the market trend of this week is stable. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5500-5550 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was average, and port inventory rose, about 26000 tons.

 

2. Industrial chain:

 

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices generally showed a volatile downward trend. As of Friday, spot Brent fell 4.72%, Brent futures fell 3.46%, WTI futures fell 0.94%, and Dubai futures fell 3.30%.

 

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In the downstream, in the TDI market, the trend of domestic TDI market this week is stable and the transaction is light. The quotation of domestic goods with bills is about 11200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is about 11400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will maintain a weak shock in the later period. In terms of PX market, the domestic market price has increased. At present, it is about 6900 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 814-816 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 834-836 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6900 yuan / ton next week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch said: next week, we will continue to focus on market turnover, port inventory and crude oil trend. Overall, toluene market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week.

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According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable temporarily. As of January 2, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic acid process is 6300 yuan / ton, and the market price trend of o-phthalic anhydride is stable in the near future. On January 2, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 61.31, unchanged from yesterday, 48.96% lower than 120.13 (2012-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 26.62% higher than 48.42, the lowest point on January 21, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories maintain rigid purchase, the factory inventory pressure still exists, the high-end transaction is blocked, in the near future, the spot supply of manufacturers is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 6200-6500 yuan / ton, that of naphthalene method source is 6100-6200 yuan / ton; in North China, the main flow of quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 6200-6400 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the field are mainly stable, the downstream construction is not high, the purchase is mainly on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field has little change The price trend of phthalic anhydride is stable temporarily.

 

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In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 6200 yuan / ton. Due to the high unit operating rate of some domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers, the normal supply of goods within the site, the import phthalic acid Market in the port area remains at a low level. In the near future, the phthalic acid Market in the port is stable, the port inventory is low, and the external price of phthalic acid is temporarily stable. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, and the details are discussed in detail Benzene price stability influence, phthalic anhydride market price trend temporarily stable.

 

The price of phthalic anhydride, isooctanol, DOP raw materials, DOP enterprises and DOP suppliers in the downstream are stable and stable. The price of DOP fluctuated and remained stable, the downstream demand of DOP was poor, the customer’s purchasing enthusiasm was poor, the downstream PVC price fluctuated and fell, and the PVC industry was off-season. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 7350-7600 yuan / ton, and the rising power of DOP in the future market is general, but the price of ox in the upstream is low and fluctuates, and the demand of plasticizer industry is not changed much. The phthalic anhydride analysts of the business society expect that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be stable temporarily.

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Price trend of magnesium ingot in 2019

 

In 2019, the market of magnesium ingot is weak, and the market price is greatly reduced. According to the data of business agency, as of December 31, the average market price of magnesium ingot (9990) was 14166.67 yuan / ton, down 16.83% from the average price of 17033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (01.01).

 

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The market trend of magnesium ingots in 2019 is roughly divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of May, the price of magnesium ingots fluctuates at a high level within the range of 16600-17500 yuan / ton; from the beginning of June to the first ten days of July, the price of magnesium ingots is monotonous downward, and the market is weak; from the middle of July to the last ten days of August, the price of magnesium ingots fluctuates. Since the beginning of September, the price of magnesium ingots has entered a downward range again. In the last ten days of December, the price of magnesium ingots has risen slightly.

 

The monthly average price of domestic magnesium ingot Market from January to December 2019 is as follows (yuan / ton):

 

Month up and down (%) amplitude (%) lowest price (date) highest price (date)

1 -0.49 4.85 16400(01.09) 17225(01.23)

2 0.15 1.18 16875(02.12) 17075(02.18)

3 0.74 3.24 17000(03.01) 17550(03.15)

4 -0.73 0.73 17025(04.09) 17150(04.01)

5 -1.13 1.13 16833.33(05.31) 17025(05.01)

6 -6.14 6.34 15766.67(06.26) 16833.33(06.01)

7 -1.69 3.38 15433.33(07.09) 15966.67(07.19)

8 0.86 2.32 15000(08.01) 15866.67(08.15)

9 -3.84 3.84 15033.33(09.30) 15633.330(09.01)

10 -2.55 2.99 14583.33(10.28) 15033.33(10.01)

11 -3.75 3.97 14100(11.30) 14666.67(11.04)

12 0.47 1.89 13900(12.20) 14166.67(12.30)

2014.66 23.01 14975.00 (01.11) 18420.00 (11.29)

© December 2019 Business Club

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Production recovery supply and demand advantage no longer exists in 2018

 

According to the data of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, from January to October, China’s Communist original magnesium output was 747700 tons, and the output in the same period of 2018 was 570200 tons, up 21.7% year on year. Among them, the cumulative production in Shaanxi is 421000 tons, up 18.9% year on year; the cumulative production in Shanxi is 99100 tons, up 23.27% year on year; the cumulative production in Ningxia is 41900 tons, down 30.06% year on year.

 
Meanwhile, the data of the same period in 2018 shows that the main production areas have significantly reduced their production compared with that in 2017, among which Ningxia has halved year-on-year production, Shanxi has decreased 33.77% year-on-year, and the total domestic production has decreased 22.38% year-on-year.

 
Although the export volume increases, the domestic net increase stock is larger

 

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, from January to October, China exported 376000 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year increase of 16.08% and a cumulative amount of 967 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.

 

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Among them, the export of magnesium ingots totaled 201600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.53%; the export of magnesium alloys totaled 91900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%; the export of magnesium powder totaled 71200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.84%.

 

From January to October 2018, China exported 323900 tons of various magnesium products, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% and a cumulative amount of $805 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.33%. Among them, the total export of magnesium ingot is 163200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.22%; the total export of magnesium alloy is 8800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.94%; the total export of magnesium powder is 63100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%.

 

From January to October 2019, the increase in domestic production was 371700 tons, the increase in export was 52100 tons, and the net increase in domestic stock was 319600 tons.

 

Future prospects in 2020

 

The price of magnesium has fallen to the cost line of the factory. Recently, the price of magnesium ingot has bottomed out and rebounded. The trading volume has increased and the market has slightly changed. Looking forward to 2020, with the improvement of downstream demand and the release of domestic mainstream manufacturers’ inventory, magnesium price is expected to return to 14500-15000 yuan / ton shock operation.

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