I. price data
As of November 29, the average ex factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha is 6120.00 yuan / ton, 0.60% higher than 6083.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is about 6100 yuan / ton.
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On November 29, the naphtha commodity index was 75.53, up 0.45 points from yesterday, down 26.40% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 78.81% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
II. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, and trading was basically stable.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 57.77 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 58.11 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 0.59%; Brent crude oil is 63.39 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 63.87 USD / barrel at the end of the week, up or down 0.76%. OPEC’s discussion on production reduction made the market cautious in trading, and the U.S. crude oil inventory and production increased. At present, the price of the international crude oil market is not strong. Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the turnover of toluene market has gradually improved this week, and the port inventory has remained low. This week, the domestic toluene market rebounded slightly by 0.44%. In general, the market turnover, the port inventory increased, the domestic isomeric xylene market fell 1.03% this week, the current mainstream price in East China is about 6050 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic PX price trend was stable, while the external market trend was slightly volatile, with the market price of about 6700 yuan / ton.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 47th week of 2019 (11.25-11.29), there are 9 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are LNG (6.90%), coke (3.09%) and methanol (1.30%). There are five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were dimethyl ether (- 3.91%), petroleum coke (- 3.31%) and MTBE (- 1.42%). This week’s average was 0.3%.
III. future forecast
According to energy analysts of business news agency, this week’s naphtha refining increased slightly, while Asian naphtha continued to boost the domestic market at a high level. Suppliers prepared goods in December. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will rise in the near future, with the average price range of 6000-6200 yuan / ton.
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