I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride fell from 2215.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.68%, down 9.09% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the potassium chloride market fell slightly this week, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 69.84 on December 13.

II. Market analysis

This week, the quotation of main manufacturers of potassium chloride fell slightly: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride was 2150 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride was 2250 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

III. future forecast

In the middle of December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. After the adjustment in November, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. However, the market of potassium chloride is facing three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, as of December 12, the average market price of butanone was around 9366.67 yuan / ton, up 330 yuan / ton compared with December 2, up 430 yuan / ton compared with December 9, up 1.83%.

II. Market analysis

Products: at the beginning of December, the domestic butanone market began to show a downward trend. On December 2, the factory adjusted the delivery rhythm under the delivery pressure, and the quotation of some manufacturers began to be lowered. The butanone market was mainly weak and reorganized. On December 3, the domestic butanone market again slightly fluctuated downward. Due to the lack of downstream buying support, the quotation of many factories was loose. On December 4, the market price of butanone fell to a low point. The average price of the comprehensive sample quotation was around 8930 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that on December 1. The weak situation of the butanone market continued until December 8. From December 9, the butanone market began to show a strong voice. Due to the increased enthusiasm of downstream buying, the price of the factory rose, and most factories did not have inventory, and then began to raise the quotation. On October 10, the butanone Market The market price rose again, and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers soared. The factory offered a higher price rise. Until December 12, due to the low stock in butanone market, the market quotation pushed up all the way, and the quotation was firm. Most factories did not have the stock spot price rising. At present, the spot price in Jiangsu market is based on the spot exchange of 9300-9450 yuan / ton. Ningbo butanone market has few spot goods. With the rapid development of Jiangsu market, the spot price is 9350-9450 yuan / ton. The market price of butanone in South China is 9400-9650 yuan / ton, and the price of pre-sale and factory supply is low-end. The spot price tends to be high-end. At present, the spot resources in the market are still insufficient, with manufacturers and traders actively pushing up.

Industry chain: at present, the mainstream transaction price of Shandong civil gas market is 3800-3850 yuan / ton, and the low-level stable shipment is the first, considering that the short-term stable pressure of the price difference with propane is not large; the mainstream transaction price of carbon four after ether is 4650-4750 yuan / ton, which is weak and consolidated, and the device profit hangs upside down after the downstream falls, and the demand for raw materials slows down in the later period or has a downward trend.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis by the data analyst of the business agency, the overall purchasing sentiment in the market is general at present, and the spot market is low. It is expected that the butanone market will be mainly consolidated at a high level in the short term.

On December 11, the PX commodity index was 53.60, down 0.1 point from yesterday, 47.66% from the highest point 102.40 (2013-02-28), and 17.67% higher than the lowest point 45.55 on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, in recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has remained volatile, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, the operation of other plants is stable temporarily, and the domestic p-xylene plant has been installed The operating rate is about 70%. Due to the normal supply of domestic p-xylene market when the new unit is put into operation, the market price trend of p-xylene remains low and fluctuates. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On December 10, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 3 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 782-784 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 803-805 US dollars / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The falling price of external market has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, which is not supported well enough, and the market price of p-xylene is not enough Keep low.

WTI crude oil futures market in the United States recently rose to US $59.24/barrel, or US $0.22, while Brent crude oil futures rose to US $64.34/barrel, or US $0.09. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with the Russian energy ministry magazine that Russia still expects oil production to reach a new record high this year, from 555.8 million tons produced in 2018 to 556 million to 560 million tons. The higher crude oil price plays a supporting role in the cost of petrochemical products, while the domestic p-xylene price trend remains low.

In terms of raw material PTA, another 1.1 million ton line of Dushan energy was put into operation successfully, Hainan Yisheng and Yadong petrochemical plants were restarted successively, and the supply end was pressurized. At the same time, affected by the downstream polyester production reduction news, PTA market fluctuated under the pressure of new supply, and the market average price was 4840 yuan / ton as of December 11. The overall market transaction in the lower reaches has cooled down. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has declined to about 70%. The terminal factory is currently catching up with foreign Christmas orders, and the orders are basically coming to an end. With the decrease of orders in December, it is expected that the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms will decrease. Some orders will be issued next spring and summer, but the order quantity is not large, and the product delivery speed is average.

In the near future, crude oil price is mainly fluctuating, but the demand at the downstream of the terminal is not improving, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. Business analysts believe that the PX market price may maintain about 6700 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

According to the data of the commodity list of the business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province recently fell. On December 9, the average price of formaldehyde was 1090.00 yuan / ton, and on December 10, the average price of formaldehyde was 1066.67 yuan / ton, down 2.14%. The current price is 19.80% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of formaldehyde in domestic market has fallen. As of the 10th, the main factory quotation of Hebei is about 1000 yuan / ton, that of South China is about 1180 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is about 1020 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu is 1150 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%. The plant has been restarted. Formaldehyde plant restart more, formaldehyde market stock, formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere cold, the enterprise shipping pressure increased, the price all the way down.

Industrial chain: the domestic methanol market is in stable operation, with slight adjustment in some areas. Most enterprises in the domestic market offer stable prices, and some units in Southwest China are shut down. Under the tight supply, the market price of methanol in this region has moved up, and some enterprises have stopped selling due to low inventory. In the port market, futures prices continue to move up, supporting the rise of spot prices. In the short term, we need to continue to pay attention to the changes in port inventory. Limited support for formaldehyde. The downstream market is affected by the environmental protection regulation, the overall operating rate has declined, the demand has shrunk substantially, and the price of formaldehyde has fallen all the way.

III. future forecast

Recently, methanol in the upper reaches has been sorted in a narrow range, with little fluctuation in cost, light market trading, and low operating rate in the lower reaches. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business society predict that the domestic formaldehyde price or low level consolidation is the main trend in the near future.

I. price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the market price of epichlorohydrin has recently fallen. On December 1, the average price of the enterprise was 12833.33 yuan / ton, on December 9, the average price of the enterprise was 11833.33 yuan / ton, and the 10 day decline of epichlorohydrin was 7.79%. In a three-month cycle, it fell 4.05% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell recently. Epichlorohydrin manufacturers are not willing to ship at a low price. However, downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory raw materials, operate cautiously and purchase on demand. The trading atmosphere is light and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin market in China is around 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market of propylene in Shandong continued to decline on the 9th. At present, the market turnover has dropped to about 6670-7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6670-6700 yuan / ton. At present, due to the influence of heavy fog in Shandong Province, the logistics is not smooth, and the access of external sources of goods is blocked. In addition, the agreement on production reduction at the weekend OPEC + meeting is postponed and strengthened, and the international crude oil is rising sharply. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of propylene should start to stabilize and recover in recent days. On September 9, most of the downstream epoxy resin factories made steady offers, with a light trading atmosphere.

3. Future forecast:

Epichlorohydrin analysts believe that the recent weak price of raw propylene, epichlorohydrin cost support weakened. Downstream buying is just needed, and the enthusiasm for participation is not high, so we should wait and see more carefully. However, epichlorohydrin manufacturers are not willing to go out. It is expected that in the short term, epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by stalemate finishing and operation, and more attention should be paid to the information guidance of upstream and downstream mainstream manufacturers.

I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, the domestic isomeric xylene market this week was stable, up about 0.41% as of Friday.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, the market transaction is stable this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6000 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was fair, and the port inventory increased steadily and slightly, about 25000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices generally showed a bottoming recovery trend, with Brent up 1.07% at sight, Brent futures up 1.3%, WTI futures flat, and Dubai futures up 2.64%.

In the downstream, in the PX market, the price of the external market is slightly higher, the operating rate of the downstream textile industry is slightly lower, and the supply of the domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6700 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 600-610 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market rebounds slightly, and it is expected that PTA market will maintain a weak shock in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation was stable, at 6200 yuan / ton. The external quotation of o-benzene declined slightly, and it is expected that the future market of o-benzene will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, we will continue to focus on market turnover, port inventory, progress of Sino US trade negotiations and crude oil trend next week. On the whole, toluene market is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly next Tuesday.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of December 5, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13100 yuan / ton, which was 4.59% higher than that of the same period last month and 8.71% higher than that of the same period last year. The overall market is relatively strong.

II. Market analysis

Product: domestic aggregate MDI market continues to rise slightly, with no decrease in momentum. At present, it is difficult for manufacturers to relax in a short period of time. The inventory of agents is also low. In the atmosphere of buying up, downstream inquiries are also becoming more active and the transaction is acceptable. This month, the filling speed of new goods is slow, the stock in the hands of the operators is tightening, and they are reluctant to sell at a low price. Some of the lower reaches have made up a small amount of positions in advance, and the market is generally trading. Due to the slow arrival of goods, traders mainly wait and see.

In terms of market, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong moved up in a narrow range. The market is short of new goods, the market is short of spot goods, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, the downstream purchases on demand, and the market is generally traded. The center of gravity of East China aggregate MDI market moved up in a narrow range. The spot market is scarce, the operators are reluctant to sell at low prices, the downstream purchase is cautious, and the market is generally firm. South China aggregate MDI market is stable and moving up. At present, there are few spot goods in the market, middlemen are reluctant to sell at low prices, and offer moves up. Downstream market just needs to be cautious, and market transactions are few.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene in spot and far month rose due to the tight supply, and the spot negotiation was 5450-5600 yuan / ton. Crude oil and pure benzene rose in the external market, with a large price difference between the internal and external market. The main refineries raised their expectations, and the domestic pure benzene market is expected to be more volatile in the short term.

Aniline: the price of pure benzene is relatively high, and Sinopec has room to increase it. Although the raw material surface is strong, the aniline enterprises have high inventory and the aniline market price is reduced. East China’s reference price is 6450 yuan / ton, and North China’s reference price is 6240 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, enterprises have less market volume; suppliers intend to stabilize the market. In terms of bad news, the terminal just needs to be improved to a limited extent; some downstream still have pre inventory, mainly digesting inventory. MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic MDI market will be stable, moderate and strong

On December 4, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 121.05, the same as yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 56.46% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On April 4, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchase was on demand, coupled with the impact of environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stopped production more, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started construction limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2300-2500 yuan / ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream manufacturers are forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate is at a low level, but the cost of raw materials is well supported, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1600 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1600 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1650 yuan / ton, the price trend is weak. The situation of nitric acid delivery is general. The low price of nitric acid has a negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. The upstream domestic liquid ammonia market is rising, and the trend of some enterprises in Shandong is rising by 50-100 yuan / ton. The price in Northwest China remains low. At present, the local ammonia volume is normal. The mainstream price in Shandong is 2900-3200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in Hebei is 2850 yuan / ton- 3000 yuan / ton, the rise of liquid ammonia market has a certain positive impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of the downstream civil explosive industry has not changed much. For the demand of ammonium nitrate Market, the stock of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is high, but the market price of raw materials remains high. The general price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable due to the commodity market. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the market price of upstream raw material nitric acid remains low, and the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will remain stable in the later stage.

On December 2, the PX commodity index was 53.60, down 0.1 point from yesterday, 47.66% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), and 17.67% higher than 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, in recent years, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has remained volatile, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, the operation of other plants is stable temporarily, and the domestic p-xylene plant has been installed The operating rate is about 70%. Due to the normal supply of domestic p-xylene market when the new unit is put into operation, the market price trend of p-xylene remains low and fluctuates. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On December 2, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia dropped by 7 USD / ton, and the closing price was 770-772 USD / ton fob in South Korea and 791-793 USD / ton CFR in China. About 50% of domestic products need to be imported. The falling price of external market has a certain negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, which is not supported well enough. The market price of p-xylene is close to that of domestic market Period slightly lower.

WTI crude oil futures market in the United States recently rose slightly to $55.96/barrel, or $0.79, while Brent crude oil futures rose to $60.92/barrel, or $0.43. OPEC and its allies may agree to further production cuts at a meeting this week, while strong Chinese manufacturing data also showed stronger demand, with crude closing slightly higher. Oil prices were also supported by an unexpected return to growth in Chinese manufacturing activity in November. Driven by the production and new orders index, China’s official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rebounded to above 50 in November, hitting an eight month high. In November, Caixin manufacturing PMI recovered for five consecutive months, the highest since 2017. With the further implementation of the early counter cyclical adjustment policy, China’s economic operation began to show signs of turning from decline to stability. Crude oil price remains low, petrochemical product cost support is limited, domestic p-xylene price trend remains low.

In terms of raw material PTA, another 1.1 million ton line of Dushan energy was put into operation successfully, Hainan Yisheng and Yadong petrochemical plants were restarted successively, and the supply end was pressurized. At the same time, affected by the downstream polyester production reduction news, PTA market fell under the pressure of new supply, and the market average price was 4814 yuan / ton as of December 3. The overall market transaction in the lower reaches has cooled down. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has declined to about 71%. The terminal factory is currently catching up with foreign Christmas orders, and the orders are basically coming to an end. With the beginning of December, the orders will gradually decrease, so it is expected that the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms will decline. Some orders will be issued next spring and summer, but the order quantity is not large, and the product delivery speed is average.

In the near future, crude oil price is mainly fluctuating, but the demand at the downstream of the terminal is not improving, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. Business analysts believe that the PX market price may maintain about 6700 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

In November 2019, the domestic antimony ingot market fell at the end of the month, with an average price of 42000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 41625 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 0.89%.

On November 30, the antimony commodity index was 57.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.36% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.35% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

II. Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: this month, the price of antimony trioxide follows the trend of antimony ingot to the end of the month. As of the 30th, the average price of antimony trioxide is 99.5% at 36000 yuan / ton and 99.8% at 38500 yuan / ton. In terms of raw antimony ore, the price change this month is limited, and the price is relatively stable. Near the end of the year, some mine owners have the willingness to withdraw funds, but the price is relatively firm and the fluctuation is limited.

Domestic market: the spot market has been in a stable trend this month. Near the end of the month, the price is declining. This month, the market continues to have light trading and limited negotiation. As a result, some manufacturers slightly reduce the price to sell, resulting in a certain degree of price decline. However, nearly the end of the year, most manufacturers have basically completed their annual tasks, and will not make too much adjustment to the market. This price correction is also the previous period The small-scale fluctuation after the rise has limited impact on the market. The main domestic manufacturers are still firm in price mentality, and there is limited space for subsequent continuous decline. As of the end of the month, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingot is 39500 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingot is 40000 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingot is 41000 yuan / ton, and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingot is 37500 yuan / ton.

Industry: U.S. economic data is good. Powell said in the Federal Reserve’s beige book that he is optimistic about the U.S. economic expectations. The U.S. stock market has set a new record, but the high U.S. dollar also suppresses the basic metals.

III. future prospects

In December next week, European and American data sets will have a certain impact on market confidence and the dollar index. In the near future, the fund tolerance is high and the performance is loose. The domestic basic metals may be in the final rush active state before the end of the year. It is expected that the spot antimony ingot Market in East China will fluctuate slightly with limited price fluctuation.