I. trend analysis

In the two months of the traditional peak season, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has gone out of the roller coaster like market. First, it soared all the way in September, and then, after a short period of stability at the end of September and the beginning of October, it fell all the way to the level at the beginning of September. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in early September was 11075 yuan / ton, then soared all the way to 12900 yuan / ton at the end of September, then fell all the way from 12900 yuan to 11150 yuan / ton at the end of the month in October, with an increase of 16.48% in September and a decrease of 13.57% in October.

 

II. Market analysis

 

Rise and fall of raw material butadiene drives up and down fluctuation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber

In September and October, the price of butadiene, a raw material, rose sharply and fell sharply, which promoted the fluctuation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In September, the crude oil experienced a sharp rise of “black swan”. In addition to the unplanned shutdown of North Huajin and Puyang Bluestar units, butadiene rose sharply, with an increase of 16.48%; in October, with the continuous decline of crude oil, combined with the resumption of export sales of North Huajin after the Festival, the market supply of butadiene was abundant, and the price fell all the way, with a drop of 13.57% in October.

 

Gamma Polyglutamic acid Gamma PGA

From the price comparison index chart, since September, with the price of butadiene and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rising, the change trend of the two keeps a certain gap, and the downstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber cost pressure is obvious; from the middle and late October, with the price of butadiene and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber falling, the change trend of the two tends to be the same, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber cost pressure gradually decreases.

 

Relatively low operating rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in September

 

According to the business agency, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber industry maintained a low start-up rate in September, with a relatively tight supply, which slightly increased in October, but the increase in supply was not significant. In September, lanshanzi, Dushanzi, ChuanHua, etc. were shut down in varying degrees, involving a total production capacity of 180000 tons of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; in October, three enterprises started normal operation, among which Dushanzi and Lande kept high load operation in the first half of the month, and ChuanHua kept low load operation. In addition, qixiangtengda, Haopu new material, etc. have been in the parking state.

 

Weak overall procurement in the downstream

 

Gamma Polyglutamic Acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic tire operating rate fluctuates from September to October. Affected by the National Day holiday, during the early period of the national day and the National Day in early October, the domestic tire operating rate has declined. After the National Day holiday, the tire operating rate has gradually picked up, but the overall operating rate is still below 70%, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still weak.

 

III. future prospects

 

According to business analysts, the main reason for jinjiuyinshi cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to go out of the roller coaster is that the rise and fall of the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in this round is greatly affected by the raw materials, and cis-4-polybutadiene rubber and its downstream are passively receiving the raw materials. When the demand is unable to support, with the decline of raw material prices, the whole industrial chain will return to a weak and reasonable state. In the later stage, on the one hand, the price of butadiene, the upstream raw material, fell sharply, on the other hand, the downstream tire operating rate is still below 70%, which is insufficient support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and the cis-4-polybutadiene rubber price will present a weak consolidation pattern.

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