present environmental inspection efforts to enhance production plant operating rate is low, inventory status, and transportation, a large number of enterprises are still unable to digest the short-term orders, for a large quantity, no sales pressure. The export market, the international market demand is generally late, temporary price stability, Chinese 55% grains FOB price 250-255 USD / ton.

The current domestic ammonium market high, small price changes, the price of 1950-2000 yuan / ton, low operating rate, about 40% or so, the limited supply of the market, to take pre orders, take the goods market, stock volume, downstream procurement initiative, part of the order price increase.

December 30th Shanghai Hui Tian Industrial Co., monoammonium phosphate (55% powder ammonium) sales price of 2050 yuan / ton, the actual negotiations. The normal operation of the Sichuan Meishan Guangyi capacity of 100 thousand tons / year of ammonium phosphate plant, factory price 1750 yuan / ton, temporary price stability. Low operating rate in Hubei ammonium limited supply market, 55% powder factory price 2000-2050 yuan / ton, 58% powder factory price rose to 2100 yuan / ton, supply, stop the collection, outward tension. Shanghai Hui Tian Industrial Co., Ltd. (55% ammonium ammonium phosphate powder) sales price of 2050 yuan / ton, the actual negotiations.

Recently, the domestic upstream raw materials high ammonium cost support enhancement, and affected by the construction, lower transportation and the price hike, and near the end of the year, traffic is blocked, the car and the train freight increases due to the high prices of downstream resistance to rejection, winter storage enthusiasm is poor, the seller and the buyer is still in a stalemate, is expected before the holiday the maintenance of stability oriented.

chemical industry at present, the domestic toluene overall market continues to shock, fell after the first rise. At the beginning of the month toluene market strong performance. Good agreement to support the production of the oil market continues to ferment, showing a continuous trend of higher international crude oil. By this support, the Asian American toluene market strong push high dollar high pull up.

As of the end of the East China toluene Market narrow finishing about 5520-5530 yuan / ton (Zhangjiagang tank); Southern China market turnover was 5600-5650 yuan / ton (Sha Tin tank), stalemate consolidation, with light; North China talks light, Beijing to discuss the market 5450-5500 yuan / ton, Shandong to discuss the market 5800-5850 yuan / ton the venue inquiry in general, not much real single talks.

Although the toluene benzene market price is pushed up slightly, but buying wait-and-see, middlemen and terminal downstream market enthusiasm, the supply is relatively abundant, no actual transaction support, the market is weak, is expected to enter the market in January will continue weak finishing of toluene.

The first quarter of 2017, the east port of Changzhou, and sailboat Petrochemical two MTO units total production capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons will enter a substantive stage of operation, when the east port of methanol demand surge of 3 million tons / year, the annual demand growth of more than 20%. The new methanol production capacity at home and abroad prior to the release of the first quarter of next year, methanol market supply will be relatively tight.

In short, the price of crude oil production by the center of gravity and methanol supply tight situation in the next structural oil producer, is expected to price of methanol will maintain the upward trend of oscillation.

Therefore, the current stock of methanol production supply limited room for improvement. In 2017, the new production of domestic methanol plant in methanol to olefins integration device, a single set of additional methanol production capacity is only 2 million 400 thousand tons, and there may be delayed, the international market is also the only Iran two sets of new equipment production plan in the second half of the first quarter of 2017, both domestic and international markets are no new production capacity.

Port MTO device into operation soon, methanol demand rapid amplification

In recent years, the traditional methanol formaldehyde, acetic ether, two downstream industries in the tepid state, methanol to olefins and other emerging applications has been greatly expanded.

In fact, in 2013 the domestic production capacity is only 2 million 800 thousand tons of methanol to olefins, methanol to olefins by the end of 2016, the scale has exceeded 11 million tons.

Since the beginning of 2011, natural gas to methanol and 1 million tons / year of coal methanol device (except for the comprehensive utilization of construction) Limited, large methanol plant in recent years for the production of methanol to olefins project integration, so although the traditional industries with excess methanol production capacity, but capacity utilization increased gradually.

In addition, the introduction of new environmental law in 2015 after the coal to methanol as the traditional coal chemical industry by environmental regulatory pressure increase, the corresponding operating rate increase is limited, and the coke oven gas to methanol affected the supply side reform and environmental protection supervision of coke industry, the overall operating rate is limited, the current winter gas methanol device because of the natural gas supply affect the majority of raw materials in the parking state.

Since mid December, at the end of the tense capital and long profits double negative factors weighed, methanol futures futures prices relatively high diving, the mainland market valuation pressure greatly resolve. The methanol market supply situation will continue, the price is expected to rise in methanol oscillation.

The producers of oil price boost is still in production

The week of December 23rd, the United States active oil rigs increase high of 13 units to 523 units during the year, U.S. crude oil production fell slightly to 10 thousand barrels a day to 8 million 786 thousand barrels / day. At present the market worried about rising oil prices will stimulate the U.S. shale oil output increased sharply and then reverse oil prices down. We believe that with the U.S. shale oil drilling output failure in the accelerating period, the stock of drilling production space is limited, and the new drilling and post fracturing investment needs to see the sustainable profit level of oil prices (such as $60 / barrel above), before the international oil prices rose to $60 / barrel, no need to worry too much about shale oil output.

In November OPEC crude oil production hit a record high, up to 33 million 870 thousand barrels a day, but because of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and other countries have to notify downstream customers to reduce the supply of crude oil, and oil producing countries in the joint production supervision committee will convene in January 13, 2017, which means that the OPEC and non OPEC production cuts will soon be implemented.

The latter point of view, if the 2017 OPEC and non OPEC production agreement executed by the United States shale oil output failure effect, increase the space is limited, while the global crude oil market demand will still maintain 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day increase, the first half of 2017, there will be a global supply gap, the second half of worldwide crude oil will be significantly high inventory ease.

Methanol production capacity is limited, supply bottlenec

ks

Although the 2015 PE increment in the supply, but demand is on the decline, so the overall price decline. In 2016, the domestic economy has improved, PE downstream demand overall improvement, so although the 2016 new capacity put more, but because of demand to support prices. From the increase in the downstream of PE terminal products production, the main products are rising trend, 2016 1, November increase plastic film production increased by 3.4% to 6%, daily plastic products increased from 0.67% to 6.9%.

The current macroeconomic indicators better overall economic situation, little change. From the plastic downstream consumption seasonal, November to the Spring Festival is the film demand reserve period, after the Spring Festival to March is the peak season demand. Therefore, the late season demand there is some support for the price of plastic.

PE new material to substitute renewable materials will increase

10 months of 2016, domestic PE renewable materials production fell by nearly 500 thousand tons, reducing the rate of close to 12%. PE renewable materials bigger decline in imports, the first 10 months of this year, imports of renewable materials PE cumulative reduction of 926 thousand and 300 tons, a decline of about 45%. PE renewable materials supply significantly reduced, the main reason is that the government environmental protection material market on regeneration of unprecedented efforts to rectify, North China, East China major waste plastics market hit large, a large number of renewable materials processing workshop shut down for several months or even shut down. In 2017, the state environmental protection efforts will not relax, renewable materials will gradually withdraw from the market, the new material to substitute renewable materials will increase, PE new material demand will be enlarged.

From the plastic market, although there is a new capacity intensive delivery caused by unfavorable factors supply increases, but the actual effect on the capacity may be less than expected. In the overall macroeconomic steadily under the background of PE, the downstream demand improved, while the demand is determined the price trend of the most critical variables of plastics.