As of September 30th, Qingdao Free Trade Zone, all kinds of rubber stocks for 91 thousand and 900 tons, a decline of 11.2%. The natural rubber only more than 55 thousand and 800 tons, less than the peak levels of early 30%, reached in 2011 with the lowest since the statistics.

From the change of port trade zone, in addition to long period inventory decline, more concern is the relationship between the change of cargo and spot. Rubber bear market has become the norm of the cargo port is higher than the spot situation upside down, appeared in the late August change. Taking Thailand as an example of imported rubber, backwardation cargo situation has lasted more than in January, indicating downstream to the high acceptance of improved pricing to a seller’s market.

The tire started better than last year, Support rubber demand

The first half of Thailand, Vietnam rubber producing countries appear severe drought, leading to new year open cut period delayed more than a month, and excessive rainfall after cutting, and the influence of tapping work, resulting in the local processing plant raw materials acquisition difficulties, lack of output.

Thailand rubber administration, by the disaster continuously, Thailand natural rubber production is expected to decline 20% years. “La Nina probability” phenomenon continues to improve, will be in the coming months to bring more areas of natural rubber yield and there is rain, flood risk. In 2010 51 the La Nina weather had caused the impact of floods in Thailand 76 in the mansion, especially the main producing areas of the South were badly affected the supply of rubber.

Stock inside and outside the plate upside down disappear

[hot] daily After the rubber rose modestly in October and September on accelerating early, recently began to callback after the main contract rose up to 20%, and the next step is still up space, need to find answers from the level of supply and demand.

The supply side weather hype and heating

in December 25th, the environmental protection law twelve twenty-fifth meeting of the NPC Standing Committee voted through, which is China’s first single tax laws to promote the construction of ecological civilization, will be put into practice on January 1, 2018. The environmental protection law, will start from the tax lever to make the enterprise more sewage will pay more, less sewage can enjoy tax relief.

Analysts believe that tax revenues will increase sharply after levying environmental tax, environmental tax levied each year is expected to scale up to 50 billion yuan, environmental monitoring, water and solid waste sector will be the first to benefit.

Forced corporate emissions

As one of the highlight of this round of tax reform of environmental tax, significantly speeding up the process of legislation. In June last year, the draft legislation for public comment in August 29th this year, the NPC Standing Committee for deliberation, the NPC Standing Committee in December 20th for the two time to consider.

The United States crude oil weekly in six weeks fifth weeks rose from 11 months since rose about 22%, traders said, mainly by the OPEC agreement to cut output drive.

“Friday trading volume is low, the low oil prices showed little change,” PSW Investments executive Phil Davis said, he pointed out that U.S. crude oil rose a few cents, just enough to refresh the 17 month closing high.

Davis warned that if the market believes that OPEC production does not last a long time, high oil prices will be difficult to continue.

Libya National Oil Company announced on Tuesday that the oil pipeline to the west of Sharara and El in Feel oilfield to reopen, hopes for future production in March increased to 270 thousand barrels / day.

Analysts say Saudi Arabia announced this week will raise domestic fuel prices by the government to reduce subsidies, the factors may soon heavy oil city.

This may reduce the Saudi domestic crude oil consumption, the state more supply of crude oil to the export market, Citi Futures energy futures expert Tim Evans said in a statement.

Reuters reported Friday, U.S. crude hit a 17 month high of close, Christmas and New Year holiday week is approaching, light trading market,

But the U.S. crude oil rose only slightly, because the market organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will oversee the implementation of the production plan and how Libya is expected to increase.

Although the United States crude oil closed at a 17 month high on Friday, but the price has not changed much. The oil market closed for the Christmas holiday in advance.

Brent crude futures rose $0.11, or 0.2%, to $55.16 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures closed up $0.07, or 0.1%, at $53.02, the highest close to July last year.

The United States is a crude oil closed last week hit a 17 month high of only 5 cents higher, rising U.S. crude oil contracts in recent months for sixth consecutive days, this is the longest rally to August.

Experts believe that the environmental tax for the sewage charges as tax collection efforts greatly strengthened, lower tax revenue will be a substantial increase in environmental protection. Data show that in 2003-2015 years, the total sewage charges 211 billion 599 million yuan, of which 2015 sewage charges levied 17 billion 300 million yuan. According to the Central University of Finance and Economics estimated that the environmental tax levy, expected annual environmental tax levy scale up to 50 billion yuan.

Sealand securities analyst believes that the tax will encourage enterprises to take the initiative to pursue energy-saving emission reduction, increase investment in environmental protection, improve the technical level, the elimination of backward production capacity, to achieve the transformation of economic structure; environmental tax levy will provide adequate funds for investment in environmental protection, but also for environmental governance to provide financial support.

Analysts believe that after the implementation of environmental tax, environmental protection industry will make comprehensive benefit. Among them, the first direct benefit is the environmental monitoring sector, because the tax to the monitoring data, need to install monitoring equipment or the third party monitoring service, test and other leading companies concern; secondly, environmental taxes forced enterprises to control pollution, good industrial wastewater treatment prospects, originwater concern; finally, a large amount of solid waste generated hazardous waste collection, high tax, environmental tax levy solid waste sector is expected to exceed expectations, Jinyuan shares, Dongjiang environmental benefit etc..

Upstream urea prices gradually stabilized, the individual still rose slightly, the mainstream of temporary stability. Shandong area of small particles 1240-1290 yuan / ton, 1320 yuan / ton large particles tight spot, preparation of fertilizer businesses cautious; Henan individual manufacturers down 10-20 yuan, the mainstream factory price 1260-1280 yuan / ton; Hebei factory price 1230-1260 yuan / ton; Jiangsu small particles of the mainstream 1310-1380 yuan / ton.

At present, the upstream raw material prices stabilize urea. The current market sentiment heavier, winter storage prices issued delayed but still downside, next week is expected to compound fertilizer prices vulnerable to the mainly.

fertilizer market prices this week vulnerable, the compound fertilizer market mainstream offer price at 2124 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic fertilizer market fall over, the lower reaches of cautious, take the goods with a plan in advance. Winter storage prices, the majority of enterprises have not yet introduced, said after the meeting will start in phosphate fertilizer, only a few enterprises in the northeast region issued payment policy interest, interest ranging from 05-1.5, it is not pre payment based pricing. It is reported that, at present Shandong area 45%S (15-15-15) mainstream factory 1850-1900 yuan / ton, 45%CL (15-15-15) mainstream factory 1650-1700 yuan / ton; Hubei area 45%S (15-15-15) mainstream factory 1800-1900 yuan / ton, 45%CL (15-15-15) mainstream factory 1700 yuan / ton; Jiangsu area 45%CL (15-15-15) mainstream factory 1600 yuan / ton so, the low-end ex factory price of 1520 yuan / ton.

The lower end of the market of compound fertilizer in autumn, device manufacturers parking maintenance, the overall operating rate fell to 3-4. Winter started slowly, the potassium chloride demand in the short term.

At present, potassium chloride market adequate supply port. The potassium chloride in the actual transaction price according to the amount of basic negotiations, is expected in the short term the official quotation based on stability.