Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in August

In early August, the average price of aluminum ingot spot market fluctuated at a high level, with an operating range of 19700-19900 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on August 10 was 19903.33 yuan / ton, up 0.13% from 19856 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 26.43%.

Power rationing in Guangxi is becoming more and more strict, and power rationing and production reduction affect domestic supply

The power limitation of electrolytic aluminum in Southwest China is becoming more and more strict. China Southern Power Grid Guangxi company requires the electrolytic aluminum plants in Guangxi Province to further reduce the power load by 30%. The aluminum plants using China Southern Power Grid need to reduce the current operating capacity by 30%. It is preliminarily estimated that the annual operating capacity of Guangxi will be reduced by about 270000 tons by the end of August, and the resumption time of production is to be determined.

According to statistics, since 2021, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in five provinces has decreased due to the power restriction policy. According to the published data, the planned and reduced production capacity has reached 1.626 million tons / year, accounting for 3.7% of the annual production capacity in China.

In July, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant may be required to raise its production limit to 30% from the previous 25%. Electrolytic aluminum plants in Guizhou and Guangxi also began to limit power slightly two weeks ago. Some aluminum enterprises chose to carry out annual maintenance in advance or reduce load a little. The power restriction requirements became stricter, and Guizhou enterprises were required to cooperate with staggered peak power consumption. In July, there was little hope for the resumption of production capacity shut down in Yunnan, with a monthly reduction of more than 70000 tons. Guangxi power grid issued an orderly power consumption notice of 3 million million kilowatts of load reduction due to wrong peak avoidance, including 500000 kilowatts of load reduction of Baise power grid, 300000 kwh of load reduction of Laibin Power Grid and 360000 kwh of load reduction of Nanning Power Grid. According to the local load reduction demand, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the region may affect or exceed 100000 tons.

The cost side increased slightly

It is roughly estimated that the average cost of electrolytic aluminum industry will generally rise in 2021, with an increase of 11-12% compared with the beginning of the year, and the corresponding increase of aluminum price is 26%. The rising cost side is mainly due to the rising price of electricity price and raw alumina.

Future forecast

August is in the off-season, and domestic demand is expected to slow down, which poses a certain downward risk to aluminum price. However, the production capacity is reduced due to the cost and power restriction. At present, the market inventory is small, which supports the aluminum price.

Ye Jianjun, an analyst of business society, believes that the current price range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will still operate around 19000 yuan / ton in the near future. On the whole, the short-term downward risk will be weakened and the high shock operation will still be maintained.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 operated smoothly in the first week of August, and the spot price was stable and small. As of August 9, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, flat compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 42.72%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of upstream caprolactam, the current domestic market undertook that the industry load decreased at the end of last month, and the supply side was in short supply, which benefited the spot price. At the same time, the impact of the decline of raw material pure benzene is also gradually expanding. In August, the global spread of the mutant virus weighed on international oil prices, compounded by the blocked shipment of enterprises and insufficient downstream demand, and pure benzene fell significantly at the beginning of the month. Caprolactam was forced to follow the decline of raw materials, but the price range was still high, the demand side followed up carefully, and the spot trading on the floor was light.

The upstream caprolactam price fluctuated and fell at the beginning of the month. Although the cost side support of PA6 was weakened, it still remained in the high range. The caprolactam on the disk had great pressure on the cost of PA6, the profitability of the polymerization plant was poor, and the enterprise load was suppressed to a certain extent. Recently, the overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is about 60%, which has little change from the previous period. In terms of market demand, the demand for goods continues, and the consumption of terminal enterprises has not yet come out of the off-season market. The actual trading is mostly for manufacturers to complete early orders, and merchants try to make a firm offer. The market lacks kinetic energy and there is a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere on the floor.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that in early August, although the upstream support for the cost side of PA6 weakened, the price of caprolactam was high and the cost pressure of PA6 was high. At the same time, the domestic slice inventory increased at the end of last month. End users follow up slowly and have a strong wait-and-see mentality. The atmosphere on the floor is weak and the long and short are tangled. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may be deadlocked in the short term.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 6): 2820.00 yuan / ton

On August 6, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on August 2, with a year-on-year increase of 63.01%. Upstream coal prices have risen slightly recently, and cost support has been strengthened. From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated. The daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 138000 tons, with a significant reduction in daily output. In terms of transportation: affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, logistics and transportation are limited. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited.

In the future, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2800 yuan / ton.

On August 3, the international oil price continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $70.56/barrel, down US $0.70 or 0.98%, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $72.41/barrel, down US $0.48 or 0.66%.

Oil prices fell for two consecutive days. On the 3rd, WTI once fell below the $70 mark. WTI fell by 4.58% and Brent fell by nearly 4% in the past two trading days. Oil prices have hit nearly two-week lows. Previously, the economic data recently released by major economies did not perform well. What is more important is that the market’s concern about the slowdown in demand caused by delta virus has been further amplified, as well as the concern about the oversupply caused by the increase of production in oil producing countries.

At the macro level, the global economy is still recovering under the background of the epidemic, but the recently released Sino US economic data show that the economy is slowing down, and the market is worried about the future energy demand.

At present, the epidemic is still the main constraint on the driving force of economic recovery. The spread of delta virus, the resumption of blockade and restriction measures by some economies and countries, including the increase of epidemic prevention measures in some regions of China, undoubtedly further depresses fuel demand.

At the same time, when the prospect of crude oil demand is confused, oil producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia began to increase production. It is reported that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) significantly increased oil production in July. Under the combined influence of increased supply and slowing demand, the decline in oil prices further deepened.

In addition, from the recently released inventory data, API crude oil inventory in the United States recorded a decrease of 879000 barrels in the week to July 30, far lower than the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 4.278 million barrels. It can be seen that the driving season in North America is not strong enough, and there are signs of further slowdown in demand.

In the future, the business society believes that the recent oil price is still in a short market atmosphere, and the fear of oversupply caused by the increase in production of oil producing countries lingers. The latest ministerial meeting was also held on September 1. Before that, the market supply was still negative. In addition, the threat of delta virus to the global economy is also difficult to contact in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that oil prices will not perform well in the near future.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 2, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 3100 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.20% compared with the price on July 31, 12.05% compared with the price on July 1, and 73.83% compared with the same period last year.

In July, the overall trend of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market rose, with a monthly increase of 9.64%. In the first half of July, there was no pressure on enterprise sales, the downstream industry just needed to purchase, the market trading was orderly and the atmosphere was OK. In the second half of July, the price of raw materials was relatively strong, the enterprise mainly delivered goods normally, the market trend was balanced, and the market was mainly stable and operated at a high level. In August, the formic acid market continued to rise. From the supply side, the unit operated normally, and from the demand side, the downstream demand was relatively stable.

The supply of caustic soda in the upstream is reduced, and the demand of alumina enterprises in the downstream of caustic soda is good. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term caustic soda consolidation operation is the main; For upstream liquid ammonia, on August 1, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 4883.33, an increase of 10.15% compared with July 1 (4433.33); For upstream sulfuric acid, on August 2, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently. Some sulfuric acid manufacturers have insufficient operation, the load has decreased, the downstream bromine market has gradually increased, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good; For upstream methanol, on August 2, the reference price of methanol was 2585.00, an increase of 1.17% compared with July 1 (2555.00).

Formic acid analysts of business society believe that the raw material market has operated strongly recently, the cost side has boosted market confidence, the supply and demand side is relatively stable, and the market trading is orderly. It is expected that the formic acid market may operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of July 30, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 4762.50 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.52% from 4787.50 yuan / ton on July 26.

On July 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 96.71, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 16.56% from the highest point 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 109.87% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The slight rise of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business agency, as of July 30, the price of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan was 4650 yuan / ton and 4750 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4900 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5000 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose, US crude oil inventories fell more than expected, and tight supply boosted oil prices. Some data show that US crude oil supply hit the lowest level since January 2020, and oil prices further increased.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of July 28, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1.53 million barrels to a three-week low of 22.904 million barrels.

Future forecast: energy analysts of business society believe that the recent rise in crude oil prices and a slight rise in marine raw materials, but the terminal demand of the domestic marine fuel market is weak and the market trading is light. In addition, due to the impact of rainfall and typhoon in some areas, the marine refueling business is limited and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

Commodity index: on July 31, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 91.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.20% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 8.34% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of solid polyaluminium chloride in China (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) fluctuated weakly in July. Due to the torrential rain disaster in Henan on the 20th, the water treatment enterprises in Gongyi water area, one of the main production areas, were forced to stop production for about a week. In terms of quotation, most enterprises are stable, and a small number of enterprises with high inventory reduce their quotation slightly in order to ship goods. According to the monitoring data, China reported 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 1st and 1690 yuan / ton on the 31st, with a downward range of 1.93%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data of hydrochloric acid: business society, in July, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was mainly volatile and stable, and a small number of manufacturers slightly reduced the ex factory price in late October; Among them, the mainstream quotation on the 1st is 230 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 31st is 226.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 1.45%; The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the cost support for hydrochloric acid is poor, the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, the price was relatively stable in July, which had no significant impact on the market of polyaluminium chloride.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. In July, the domestic LNG market continued to rise in the off-season, with an increase of about 30% in the month, almost doubling the level in the same period last year, which was eye-catching in the off-season of traditional consumption. The sharp rise of liquid price this month is mainly due to the rise of cost, the reduction of market supply, the increase of demand in high temperature weather, the continuous rise of air intake, and the superposition of multiple positive factors, which supports the sharp rise of domestic LNG price. The liquid price in various places rises by more than 1000 yuan within the month, and the center of gravity moves up sharply. Now the liquid price in various parts of China has risen to more than 4500 yuan / ton, and Shandong, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have broken through the 5000 mark, with the sword finger reaching 6000. Recently, there have been heavy rainstorms in many places, affecting the logistics in some areas, the market supply continues to decrease, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure, and the psychology of pushing up the price is still. According to the current situation, the domestic LNG market is easy to rise but difficult to fall. At present, 4680-4900 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4750-5050 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-4950 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4780-4880 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5210 yuan / ton in Henan, 4950-5200 yuan / ton in Hebei and 4600-5000 yuan / ton in Sichuan. The price of inlet gas is about 4500-5700 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas are increased to varying degrees.

Downstream demand: there was no significant improvement in the downstream demand of polyaluminium chloride in July. According to the enterprise, the current demand is still general, the enterprise has great sales pressure, and the downstream demand is generally lower than that in 2020. In particular, the production in the main production area was affected to some extent due to the rainstorm. The production was stopped for about a week. After the power was restored, the manufacturer resumed production. Due to road damage and limited logistics and transportation, the procurement of raw materials and the delivery of finished products were affected, delaying the product shipment and inventory consumption, which made the weak downstream procurement worse.

Future forecast: the business community believes that the current manufacturer’s inventory is OK, transportation and shipment are limited, and the change of raw material cost is weak, and the polyaluminium chloride market is stable and weak; However, this month, the production cost and downstream demand of LNG for production increased, and the market supply decreased, resulting in a sharp rise in the market. For polyaluminium chloride, its production cost increased. In the future, it is not ruled out that polyaluminium chloride will rise slightly, but the market will remain stable under the condition of normal production and no significant improvement in demand.

On July 20, there was a sudden rainstorm in Gongyi City, Henan Province, and extreme weather caused waterlogging and flood disasters in many places.

Gongyi, where water treatment enterprises are concentrated, is located in the west of Zhengzhou. The production of water purification agent is a traditional pillar industry of Gongyi, with early start, many manufacturers, rich local raw materials and high market share. As one of the hardest hit areas of the disaster, Gongyi has become an “isolated island” in the mouth of the media due to many mountainous and hilly areas and developed water systems. Many villages have lost power, power, water and natural gas in the rainstorm.

In addition to life, continuous heavy rainfall has also caused damage to the bulk commodity and raw material Market: for example, the raw material related logistics park and some construction sites have been flooded, the warehouse has been powered off, the roads have been destroyed, etc., and the production, storage, loading and unloading, logistics transportation and construction progress of the construction site have been affected.

Volunteers from all over the country rushed to Henan for disaster relief! Today, our great PLA soldiers have taken over and rushed to Henan.

According to the investigation, after the flood, the power emergency repair personnel of power supply companies in various regions gradually restored the local power supply by overcoming many difficulties, such as low visibility, successive landslides, blocked roads, communication interruption, inability of emergency repair equipment to arrive at the scene and so on. After the restoration of power supply, some water treatment enterprises have restarted production.

So, what is the impact of this rainstorm on the local water treatment industry? How is the current recovery? How about the price and inventory of local water treatment products? Will the rainstorm lead to an upward trend in the future market? With a series of questions, on the 28th, the reporter of business news agency interviewed the relevant persons in charge of local water treatment enterprises.

Liu Shaofei, manager of Gongyi Fuda water purification materials Co., Ltd., “many places have been destroyed due to the rainstorm. Now it’s all right. The plant has just started construction”, “the price of water treatment products is still relatively stable during this period, and it will be tense in recent days, and there is basically no inventory”.

Wang Xiaolin, sales director of Henan Baoxing Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., “we are the disaster area, and production will resume in the plant around the 25th”; In terms of price: “the sales of water treatment products is not a problem, and the price is not affected at present”; In terms of logistics, “the road has just been restored in recent days, and some express can’t go yet.”

Wang, manager of the Sales Department of Henan Kaijie Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., “the rainstorm has some impact on the water treatment industry. Up to now, the prices of various products are stable, and the inventory of some products is tight. In terms of logistics, it is difficult to find cars now. Moreover, some sections are inconvenient to pass. ” Referring to the future, manager Wang said that due to the recent continuous increase in the price of acrylic acid, the subsequent price of polyacrylamide may rise, and the prices of brown corundum and ferrous sulfate also show some signs of rising.

It is reported that acrylic acid is one of the raw materials used in the production of anionic and non-ionic polyacrylamide. According to data monitoring, the market price of acrylic acid has continued to rise slightly since the 20th: the mainstream quotation on the 20th was 12150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 28th was 13750 yuan / ton, an increase of about 13%. As shown in the figure:

As the main raw material for polyacrylamide production, according to the data, the recent market situation of acrylonitrile is relatively stable, and the mainstream quotation is about 14750 yuan / ton. Recently, although extreme weather has frequently occurred recently, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has not been significantly affected. The delayed shipping schedule will arrive in Hong Kong at the end of this month or early next month. With the production plan of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II next month, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is increasing. Limited by the downstream demand with limited growth, the future acrylonitrile market is generally weak.

According to the data, polyacrylamide, one of the main water treatment products, has little change in the recent trend. So far, the quotation of most enterprises is generally stable, and a small number of enterprises have more inventory, so the market is slightly reduced for shipment:

To sum up, as for the future, the analysis shows that the impact of Rainstorm on the water treatment industry in Gongyi, Henan Province is gradually fading, and the market of relevant commodities may rise slightly in the short term due to the recovery of local enterprises’ production, changes in raw material costs, inventory and the recovery of transportation facilities; The demand of the middle and lower reaches is mainly stable, and the long-term improvement is mainly based on the demand of the middle and lower reaches.

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the average price of formic acid enterprises as of July 28 was 3033.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of July 21, up 9.64% compared with the price on June 28, and 24.66% year-on-year in three months.

The overall trend of formic acid Market in the first ten days of July rose by 9.64%. In late July, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid price continued to run at a high level, with balanced market trend, stable price as the main price, normal delivery of enterprises as the main, and the overall downstream demand continued to need to be purchased.

The demand of alumina enterprises in the downstream of caustic soda is good, and the short-term high-level operation of caustic soda is mainly predicted; The reference price of liquid ammonia in the upstream was 4783.33 on July 27, up 1.41% compared with that on July 21 (4716.67); The upstream sulfuric acid, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province was temporarily stable on July 27, the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly in the near future, some sulfuric acid manufacturers are under construction, the load is reduced, the downstream bromine market is gradually rising, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good; Upstream methanol, July 27, methanol reference price is 2585.00, up 0.98% compared with July 21 (2560).

The formic acid analysts of business agency believe that the current cost side support is relatively strong, the quotation of formic acid enterprises will be on the market with the downstream inquiry and purchasing enthusiasm. Under the support of raw materials, it is expected that the formic acid market will be stable and medium strong in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers as of July 27 was 7380.00 yuan / ton, the overall operation of pet market was stable, with a small upward trend, and the manufacturer’s quotation was slightly increased, up 9.6% compared with the same period last month, up 2.93% compared with the same period last week.

Recently, the price of pet market is stable, with some manufacturers’ prices rising slightly and up in a narrow range. At present, pet inventory is normal, and the downstream needs to purchase. The purchasing enthusiasm is general, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the main price range of pet is about 7200 yuan / ton.

On July 27, the rubber and plastic index was 804, down 2 points from yesterday, down 24.15% from 1060 (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 52.27% higher than the lowest point of 528 on April 06, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present)

Pet analysts of business agency think: in the short term, pet prices are mainly stable and narrow-ranging（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.