This year, crude oil has been ups and downs, various experts pointing country, crude oil industry to bring uncertainty concerns remarkable. Recently there are many chemical incidents, such as chemical enterprises cross-border mergers and acquisitions, chemical giant BASF OPEC, the accidental explosion of production uncertainty… The development of chemical industry is much like the rope puppet, if you hear what the experts finalized chemical enterprises in the future for a long period of time to. That you can be such a “wild Herman” laugh.

Because of the possibility to understand the incident because of this and most of the volatility, we can only judge the modest short-term trend.

Shallowly: development trend of chemical industry in 2017 and related analysis

Near the end of the year, we compared the market and motivation, to observe the rough, development trend of chemical industry in 2017 were analyzed and suggestions on it.

From the relevant data, recently, while the international crude oil prices hit since mid September its worst week, the other side is the domestic chemicals futures closed sharply yang.

First of all, crude oil is the main reason but not blind.

please review: as you know, since the chemical industry as human civilization is the second industry, with its huge production and conversion potential, all manufacturing industry value. Known as the “lifeline” of the national economy are not a little vague. The inevitable product of the chemical industry in most chemical products of raw materials is “demanding” economy oriented. As with most chemical industry as raw materials of crude oil, the change of pulse like, constantly affects the hearts of chemical industry.

The crude oil on the chemical industry as a “baton”

Crude oil is the source of all chemicals, chemical raw material cost control, overall, the price of crude oil, determines the operating range of chemicals.

Of course, everything is not absolute. Can not set phrase. Furthermore, although from a cost perspective, the price of crude oil and chemicals are related, but because of differences in pricing and fundamentals, effect of crude oil on the chemicals are not the same.

Since September, especially the International Energy Forum held in OPEC and non OPEC on freezing production problems, resulting in the production is expected to boost the rise of oil prices, NYMEX crude oil since August 2nd cumulative increase of more than 16%, once again washed off the $50 mark.

Change constantly in chemical industry, can not be generalized

international crude oil to rise again, the market for agreement to cut output response is good, but the new material market supply price is still narrow, fear of the cost of support has been weakened. At present, the domestic PP petrochemical devices to maintain normal production, drawing ratio remained at 27%-30%. The demand side, just need to stabilize the market, the woven industry operating rate remained at around 65%, industry co operating rate of 64%, the operating rate of BOPP industry to maintain a good, but the overall PP from upstream, midstream and downstream, from the current point of view is from the low to pick up the.

Based on the inventory in November in the middle and lower reaches of the observed data, the linear remained in a tight situation, PP from October on supply and demand has started to get some loose from the tight. It is suggested that companies strengthen the petrochemical enterprise sales policy, the actual market supply and demand situation, the international crude oil futures and polypropylene attentiondegrees.

2016 domestic epoxy resin, the trend of ups and downs, the second half of the market situation is better than the first half of the first half of the show, driven by raw materials xianyanghouyi trend, the overall expected finite interval.

(epoxy antistatic principle)

In January, February by the Spring Festival holidays, the market downturn in March, a long time, in April by the double raw materials market rebound upward influence, the obvious signs, the highest price reached 13500 yuan / ton; May, June, the downstream market ushered in the off-season, down to the level of the beginning of the year 12700 yuan / ton, the market trend of epoxy resin is weak; in July the market has not improved, August opening price model, market volatility rose at the end of 10, signs of a slight decline, low-cost supply decreased gradually at the beginning of November due to soaring 900 yuan to styrene, epoxy resin with prices up to 14000 yuan / ton.

Analysis of the 2016 1-11 month trend of epoxy resin:

Since October, with the price of gasoline is strong, LPG substitution advantage disappeared, and continued to close the Eurasian naphtha arbitrage window, naphtha spreads from early October rebounded to $35 / ton at 80 U.S. dollars / ton, was stronger than that of crude oil. But the $80 / ton crack spread is still in recent years, the same period in the history of the late fourth quarter lows, naphtha prices will also be in a seasonally strong, is expected to spread naphtha cracking still continue to uplink space.

Asian PX- naphtha spreads from the beginning of August the highest $430 / ton down to the current $350 / ton, the profit of PX processing was a squeeze, close to last year’s average price level. Although the end of the four quarter Asian PX supply pressure is still large, but in high load and the cost of PTA support, PX profit is unlikely to continue being squeezed, is expected in 11 – December PX- naphtha spreads will remain 330 to 350 U.S. dollars / ton range.

Tight supply just need strong support

From the supply side, in October, Hengli itsumori, MITSUBISHI PTA lead to centralized maintenance of tight supply, to the inventory of about 120 thousand tons, by the end of October, PTA social stock fell to a low level of 1 million 400 thousand tons. Although 10 months late maintenance devices continue to restart, but after entering in November, 1 million 500 thousand tons of Tongkun, Sanfangxiang (600370, shares) 1 million 200 thousand tons of equipment both appear to break down and drop device Hanbang negative, which supply relaxed situation changed, PTA initially expected in November will go to 30 thousand – 50 thousand tons of inventory. At the end of November, Zhuhai BP110 million tons of equipment maintenance plan, without considering the other device in case of failure, PTA is expected in December will remain in a tight balance between supply and demand.

From the polyester production profit and inventory levels, as of November 15th, the average profit in the production of polyester of 440 yuan / ton, hit a new high for the year; finished goods inventory level for about 7 days, significantly lower than last year’s 17 days of inventory. Therefore, the production of polyester business indicators are significantly better than last year, and during the G20 meeting in polyester plant has a large area of work, is expected in the fourth quarter of polyester load will remain high, just need strong support for raw materials.

In summary, crude oil adjustment basically in place, the short-term is expected to rebound, naphtha prices will remain strong, PX profit space is compressed, PTA to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand, to maintain the high polyester load just need to support the formation of the raw materials, and the current PTA spot processing fee is in 400 – 450 yuan / ton low level. We believe that, at this stage should not continue to watch PTA, recommended to do more dips, admission reference interval of 4770 yuan / ton – 4720.

27 India castor oil WaiPan prices continue to rise, the domestic market demand of castor oil is also OK, sales in general, inventory is low, the impact of declining by exchange rate, some manufacturers began to raise prices, but the overall price stability of castor oil. Castor oil is quoted in the mainstream 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

In December 27th, Guangzhou south of castor oil price stability, factory sales, the market in general, low inventory, disk prices, a refined product price 11600 yuan / ton. Xinji City Han Sen plant oil, castor oil prices remain stable, the price of a product of refined net 11600 yuan / ton, factory sales, less inventory, normal production. Wenshui the Yellow River County Oil Company Limited industrial grade refined castor oil price is 11300 yuan / ton, manufacturers of normal production, sales, price stability. Nanjing Qianyue chemical refining level of castor oil price stability, price is 9600 yuan / ton, the domestic castor oil price stability, sales in general. Zibo Zhoucun Ming Tung Chemical castor oil price stability, industrial grade castor oil (grade one) ex factory price of 11000 yuan / ton (including tax), the weak market demand, sales, inventory amount.

Recently, the domestic manufacturers of castor oil sales, the weak market demand, the exchange rate fell because the outer disk prices, most manufacturers to price stability oriented, market outlook is expected to stabilize the price of castor oil.

recently, the domestic market price rising trend of p-xylene, the recent domestic paraxylene starts into about 7, domestic paraxylene product supply normal, the domestic market price of 6900 yuan / ton.

In December 27th the United States p-xylene market closing price steady, closing price of US $790-800 / ton FOB harbor. Europe p-xylene market closed, the previous day’s closing price of $764-766 / ton FOB Rotterdam.

In December 28th China Sinopec Sales Company of p-xylene price stability, operation of the PX device manufacturers Luoyang petrochemical production capacity of 225 thousand tons, output 600 tons, the price of 6900 yuan / ton, go off normal. Sinopec Huabei sales company of paraxylene prices stable, the executive price 6900 yuan / ton, the operation of Qilu Petrochemical device manufacturers go smoothly, the normal pin. Sinopec East China sales company of p-xylene prices stable, the price is 6900 yuan / ton, Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Refining and execution, generally go off. Sinopec Southern China branch paraxylene prices stable, the implementation of 6900 yuan / ton, Hainan petrochemical equipment manufacturers operating stability, go off normal.

The recent run of Yangzi petrochemical equipment running smoothly, Zhenhai Refining device is normal, normal operation of Jinling Petrochemical device, dragon aromatics plant has been in parking, the p-xylene spot supply is normal, the recent run parts of Asia PX maintenance device is stable, regular supply shocks of recent oil price movements, PX disk prices, the latest closing price of 859 U.S. dollars / CFR Chinese tons, is expected to post p-xylene market price or will rise slightly.

t is reported that the recent domestic PA market focus continues to decline, the real single atmosphere to remain in the doldrums. The face of weak end demand, raw material benzene all fall sharply, the negative impact of market aggravate the situation, the spot lack of interest, mental stress, and low price.

In December 28th, the new Yang Technology Factory neighbor phthalic anhydride offer down 100 yuan / ton 8100 yuan / ton cash; Changzhou Red mixed method of phthalic anhydride plant normal operation, neighbor phthalic anhydride quotation 8100-8150 yuan / ton, the hybrid method quotation 8000 yuan / ton; Tongling organic chemical factory price reference neighbor 8050-8150 yuan / PA ton. Southern China Guangdong area DOP market, finishing a narrow range, low level of supply of raw materials in stock, steady, still support the dimension of price, but the downstream demand limited follow-up, the real single atmosphere slightly pale. At present, the market reference price of 8600-8750 yuan / ton around to offer more high-end, heard some of the low price in 8650 yuan / ton to around. The normal operation of Zhejiang Weboo DOP device, the spot is less, the current foreign manufacturers DOP price 8600-8700 yuan / ton, the real single talk. Dongying Yimei chemical annual production capacity of 100 thousand tons of DOP plant in normal operation, tight supply, DOP foreign manufacturers today offer 8350 yuan / ton. Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride plant all the normal operation, the spot is less, manufacturers today quoting neighbor phthalic anhydride implementation of 8000 yuan / ton, the mixed anhydride method offer 7900 yuan / ton. The north area of Tianjin DOP market trend Yindie, downstream demand weak, few inquiries and purchase, and double raw materials are weak, mentality pressure is also increasing, at present, to discuss the market price 8350-8400 yuan / ton.

Market outlook, expected demand outlook subject is 8000 yuan / ton line is becoming increasingly apparent, in addition to the lack of market outlook is expected, the market is expected to still lower space.

How to do the electricity supplier B2B chemical enterprises?

Abstract: the chemical industry is one of the important basic industries of the national economy and pillar industry, chemical raw materials market is also very ambitious. But although the chemical industry production value showed overall growth, but faced with rising costs, excess capacity and falling profits, the restriction of resources and environment and the lack of innovation ability and other multiple problems and challenges. [details]

The domestic chemicals high price boom is expected to continue until 2017

Abstract: this year, chemical price continued strong corporate profits improved significantly. Especially the recent number of product prices again rose rapidly, also led the market for the current high economic concerns whether can maintain. Outstanding performance is far less than the corresponding product cycle stocks rose rose. [details]

In 2016 the domestic ethylene glycol butyl ether Market xianyihouyang

Abstract: this year, affected by the economic downturn, the domestic ethylene glycol butyl ether market pressure gradually increase, this year 4-6 month China ethylene glycol butyl ether apparent decline in June, the price of 7125 yuan / ton, a record low of the year. [details]

please review: an organic compound. Isopropyl alcohol is an important chemical product and raw materials, mainly used in pharmaceutical, cosmetics, plastics, paint and other spices. This week the isopropanol market rebounded, but in the case of the supply balance, the market showed steady trend.

In November 26th, Zhangjiagang Kai Ling chemical 176 thousand tons of isopropyl acetate by unit load is not high, today entertained, not price. Dezhou Tak Tin chemical 50 thousand tons / year acetone isopropanol device load of about 40%. The implementation of the factory price of 6800 yuan / ton, a single talk.

In November 27th, Mitsui Chemicals said its sales of Sinopec Mitsui acetone price hike of 400 yuan to 6000 yuan / ton factory price since November 17th. Jinzhou Petrochemical two sets of a total of 100 thousand tons of propylene by isopropanol device in low load operation, the factory temporarily quotations, mainly discuss the real single. Shandong Dadi Su Pu chemical 100 thousand tons / year of acetone isopropanol normal operation device. Today the price hike, Shandong reported 6850 yuan / ton, Jiangsu area price 7050 yuan / ton, Southern China area price 7150 yuan / ton, the normal, the real single talks.

In November 28th, Zhangjiagang Kai Ling chemical 176 thousand tons of isopropyl acetate by unit load is not high, today continue to be entertained, not price. Xinhua Yancheng 50 thousand tons of propylene by isopropanol device normal operation, today’s price hike, Binhai area price 6850 yuan / ton, Zhejiang area price 6950 yuan / ton, the actual transaction can negotiate. Dezhou Tak Tin chemical 50 thousand tons / year acetone isopropanol device load of about 40%. The implementation of the factory price of 6800 yuan / ton, a single talk.