chemical industry at present, the domestic upstream raw material price trend in December acetic anhydride acetic acid rose, as of the end of the ex factory price of 3008.75 yuan / ton, up 7.91%, the upstream raw material market prices as a result of acetic acid methanol prices pull.

Acetic anhydride market price trend in Central China in December 30th, the market holding goods businesses reported 4900-5000 yuan / ton, the stock market is stable, prices temporarily stabilized acetic anhydride. Acetic anhydride market prices stable in East China, the venue to discuss the mainstream in 4800-4900 yuan / ton, the acetic anhydride stable supply, the temporary price stability. Acetic anhydride market prices stable in North China, the venue to discuss the mainstream 4800-4900 yuan / ton, the cash supply is stable, the recent floor prices stable acetic anhydride. The operation of acetic anhydride plant in Jilin Petrochemical Carbide factory, the factory price of 5300 yuan / ton, can go off. The Wang Long group operating capacity of 160 thousand tons of acetic anhydride stable device, output 200 tons, the factory price of 5000 yuan / ton, go off normal. The operation of the Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng acetic anhydride unit stable, output 100 tons, the factory price of 5400 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials of methanol and acetic acid and acetic anhydride with recent prices, adequate market supply, the spot slightly loose, is expected in January will be slightly down or acetic anhydride market price, the price in 4500-4700 yuan / ton fluctuations.

[comment] Gade chemical network chemical industry in December 29th, the Ministry of finance, Ministry of science and technology, development and Reform Commission four ministries issued “on the adjustment of new energy vehicles to promote the application of financial subsidy policy notice”, notice clearly will adjust the application of subsidy policy. The 2017-2018 amount of subsidies in 2016 will be based on the 40% year decline of 20%, down 2019-2020. January 1, 2017 started the implementation.

present environmental inspection efforts to enhance production plant operating rate is low, inventory status, and transportation, a large number of enterprises are still unable to digest the short-term orders, for a large quantity, no sales pressure. The export market, the international market demand is generally late, temporary price stability, Chinese 55% grains FOB price 250-255 USD / ton.

The current domestic ammonium market high, small price changes, the price of 1950-2000 yuan / ton, low operating rate, about 40% or so, the limited supply of the market, to take pre orders, take the goods market, stock volume, downstream procurement initiative, part of the order price increase.

December 30th Shanghai Hui Tian Industrial Co., monoammonium phosphate (55% powder ammonium) sales price of 2050 yuan / ton, the actual negotiations. The normal operation of the Sichuan Meishan Guangyi capacity of 100 thousand tons / year of ammonium phosphate plant, factory price 1750 yuan / ton, temporary price stability. Low operating rate in Hubei ammonium limited supply market, 55% powder factory price 2000-2050 yuan / ton, 58% powder factory price rose to 2100 yuan / ton, supply, stop the collection, outward tension. Shanghai Hui Tian Industrial Co., Ltd. (55% ammonium ammonium phosphate powder) sales price of 2050 yuan / ton, the actual negotiations.

Recently, the domestic upstream raw materials high ammonium cost support enhancement, and affected by the construction, lower transportation and the price hike, and near the end of the year, traffic is blocked, the car and the train freight increases due to the high prices of downstream resistance to rejection, winter storage enthusiasm is poor, the seller and the buyer is still in a stalemate, is expected before the holiday the maintenance of stability oriented.

chemical industry at present, the domestic toluene overall market continues to shock, fell after the first rise. At the beginning of the month toluene market strong performance. Good agreement to support the production of the oil market continues to ferment, showing a continuous trend of higher international crude oil. By this support, the Asian American toluene market strong push high dollar high pull up.

As of the end of the East China toluene Market narrow finishing about 5520-5530 yuan / ton (Zhangjiagang tank); Southern China market turnover was 5600-5650 yuan / ton (Sha Tin tank), stalemate consolidation, with light; North China talks light, Beijing to discuss the market 5450-5500 yuan / ton, Shandong to discuss the market 5800-5850 yuan / ton the venue inquiry in general, not much real single talks.

Although the toluene benzene market price is pushed up slightly, but buying wait-and-see, middlemen and terminal downstream market enthusiasm, the supply is relatively abundant, no actual transaction support, the market is weak, is expected to enter the market in January will continue weak finishing of toluene.

The first quarter of 2017, the east port of Changzhou, and sailboat Petrochemical two MTO units total production capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons will enter a substantive stage of operation, when the east port of methanol demand surge of 3 million tons / year, the annual demand growth of more than 20%. The new methanol production capacity at home and abroad prior to the release of the first quarter of next year, methanol market supply will be relatively tight.

In short, the price of crude oil production by the center of gravity and methanol supply tight situation in the next structural oil producer, is expected to price of methanol will maintain the upward trend of oscillation.

Therefore, the current stock of methanol production supply limited room for improvement. In 2017, the new production of domestic methanol plant in methanol to olefins integration device, a single set of additional methanol production capacity is only 2 million 400 thousand tons, and there may be delayed, the international market is also the only Iran two sets of new equipment production plan in the second half of the first quarter of 2017, both domestic and international markets are no new production capacity.

Port MTO device into operation soon, methanol demand rapid amplification

In recent years, the traditional methanol formaldehyde, acetic ether, two downstream industries in the tepid state, methanol to olefins and other emerging applications has been greatly expanded.

In fact, in 2013 the domestic production capacity is only 2 million 800 thousand tons of methanol to olefins, methanol to olefins by the end of 2016, the scale has exceeded 11 million tons.

Since the beginning of 2011, natural gas to methanol and 1 million tons / year of coal methanol device (except for the comprehensive utilization of construction) Limited, large methanol plant in recent years for the production of methanol to olefins project integration, so although the traditional industries with excess methanol production capacity, but capacity utilization increased gradually.

In addition, the introduction of new environmental law in 2015 after the coal to methanol as the traditional coal chemical industry by environmental regulatory pressure increase, the corresponding operating rate increase is limited, and the coke oven gas to methanol affected the supply side reform and environmental protection supervision of coke industry, the overall operating rate is limited, the current winter gas methanol device because of the natural gas supply affect the majority of raw materials in the parking state.

Since mid December, at the end of the tense capital and long profits double negative factors weighed, methanol futures futures prices relatively high diving, the mainland market valuation pressure greatly resolve. The methanol market supply situation will continue, the price is expected to rise in methanol oscillation.

The producers of oil price boost is still in production

The week of December 23rd, the United States active oil rigs increase high of 13 units to 523 units during the year, U.S. crude oil production fell slightly to 10 thousand barrels a day to 8 million 786 thousand barrels / day. At present the market worried about rising oil prices will stimulate the U.S. shale oil output increased sharply and then reverse oil prices down. We believe that with the U.S. shale oil drilling output failure in the accelerating period, the stock of drilling production space is limited, and the new drilling and post fracturing investment needs to see the sustainable profit level of oil prices (such as $60 / barrel above), before the international oil prices rose to $60 / barrel, no need to worry too much about shale oil output.

In November OPEC crude oil production hit a record high, up to 33 million 870 thousand barrels a day, but because of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and other countries have to notify downstream customers to reduce the supply of crude oil, and oil producing countries in the joint production supervision committee will convene in January 13, 2017, which means that the OPEC and non OPEC production cuts will soon be implemented.

The latter point of view, if the 2017 OPEC and non OPEC production agreement executed by the United States shale oil output failure effect, increase the space is limited, while the global crude oil market demand will still maintain 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day increase, the first half of 2017, there will be a global supply gap, the second half of worldwide crude oil will be significantly high inventory ease.

Methanol production capacity is limited, supply bottlenec

ks

Although the 2015 PE increment in the supply, but demand is on the decline, so the overall price decline. In 2016, the domestic economy has improved, PE downstream demand overall improvement, so although the 2016 new capacity put more, but because of demand to support prices. From the increase in the downstream of PE terminal products production, the main products are rising trend, 2016 1, November increase plastic film production increased by 3.4% to 6%, daily plastic products increased from 0.67% to 6.9%.

The current macroeconomic indicators better overall economic situation, little change. From the plastic downstream consumption seasonal, November to the Spring Festival is the film demand reserve period, after the Spring Festival to March is the peak season demand. Therefore, the late season demand there is some support for the price of plastic.

PE new material to substitute renewable materials will increase

10 months of 2016, domestic PE renewable materials production fell by nearly 500 thousand tons, reducing the rate of close to 12%. PE renewable materials bigger decline in imports, the first 10 months of this year, imports of renewable materials PE cumulative reduction of 926 thousand and 300 tons, a decline of about 45%. PE renewable materials supply significantly reduced, the main reason is that the government environmental protection material market on regeneration of unprecedented efforts to rectify, North China, East China major waste plastics market hit large, a large number of renewable materials processing workshop shut down for several months or even shut down. In 2017, the state environmental protection efforts will not relax, renewable materials will gradually withdraw from the market, the new material to substitute renewable materials will increase, PE new material demand will be enlarged.

From the plastic market, although there is a new capacity intensive delivery caused by unfavorable factors supply increases, but the actual effect on the capacity may be less than expected. In the overall macroeconomic steadily under the background of PE, the downstream demand improved, while the demand is determined the price trend of the most critical variables of plastics.

Due to unique characteristics of the chemical industry chain, chemicals futures trend is relatively crude oil futures trend is indirect and obvious lag. It is not inconsistent with the two movements is not reasonable, especially in the crude oil into the trend of shock stage, often chemicals out of the “personal independence of conduct”.

Oil prices have recently been basically optimistic or pessimistic sentiment based on market of the November 30th OPEC protocol can reach the limit. Iran is a major obstacle limiting protocol. Although Iran did not yield to respond to the proposal, but the other OPEC countries to give Iran hinted at the November 30th OPEC conference production flexibility is approaching, OPEC may be more close to consensus. Long and oil sources said that most of the OPEC countries to give flexibility to the production of Iran, OPEC moved closer to the first production agreement to 2008.

Secondly, the recent part of the stability of chemical products objectively

At the end of November OPEC production agreement, the price is also very difficult to break through the current price range, the lower limit of the interval just blocked down; to improve the fundamentals of crude oil still pile up in excess of requirement is relatively weak, the annual demand growth forecast is currently at 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day of crude oil is expected to return to the balance of supply and demand postponed to the second half of 2017.

Last week (11.21-11.25) the overall stability of chemicals market continues to rise. Last week (11.21-11.25) prices rose significantly in the varieties are: coal chemical products, plastic industry chain, PA6, polyester staple fiber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, fertilizer, chlor alkali chemical products prices fell significantly; products are: TDI, pure MDI, propylene oxide, hard foam polyether, PTA, potassium chloride, melamine, chlorine, fluorine chemical chloromethane and nickel materials etc..

Analysis of chemical industry chain can be found, the crude oil is the most important chemical energy sources of raw materials, petrochemical industry production line, involving a wide range, many products in the domestic commodity futures market, crude oil futures and related chemicals, there are several PTA, PP, LLDPE, methanol, asphalt, rubber etc..

Furthermore, the guiding role of national policy should not be ignored