On February 3, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $55.69/barrel, up US $0.93. Brent crude oil futures market prices also rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 58.46 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.00 U.S. dollars. So far, oil prices have risen significantly for three consecutive trading days this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI has risen by 6.68% and Brent by 6.10% in recent three days. On February 3, the settlement price of WTI reached the highest level in nearly a year.

On the one hand, the extremely cold weather caused by the blizzard attack in the southeast of the United States led to a rapid rise in fuel heating demand. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have continued to effectively promote production reduction, which has brought a good supply side environment to oil prices. Moreover, the sharp decline in US commercial crude oil inventories in the past two weeks has become a direct driver to stimulate the rise of oil prices.

It began to snow in the northeast of the United States on the evening of January 31, and the snowstorm intensified on February 1. The temperature dropped sharply in many areas due to the combination of rain and snow. As of February 3, New York City and New Jersey have declared a state of emergency. Although the flight grounded depresses the demand for some aviation fuel, the impact is short-term. The market still mainly judges that the continuation of cold weather may continue to benefit the demand for heating oil .

Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories continued to decline, which directly stimulated oil prices. A week ago, the US Energy Information Bureau (EIA) released data showing that in the week of January 22nd, US commercial crude oil inventories fell 9 million 900 thousand barrels to 476 million 700 thousand barrels, and the data released in February 3rd showed that the crude oil inventories in the United States dropped by 994 thousand barrels to 475 million 700 thousand barrels as of January 29th. Analysts expect an increase of 446000 barrels. Crude oil stocks fell again. This is mainly due to the continuous vaccination of new crown vaccine, increasing demand, and OPEC + continuing to limit production, resulting in a decline in global inventories.

In terms of the recent implementation of OPEC + production reduction policy, the implementation rate of production reduction is relatively high. OPEC + has maintained a high implementation rate of production reduction since December last year, and OPEC’s output growth in January was less than expected. News shows that OPEC + will reduce production by 99% in December 2020. Among them, the implementation rates of output reduction of OPEC and its allies in December 2020 were 103% and 93% respectively, and Russia also performed positively. According to the agreement, Russia increased production in January, but the data showed that the increase rate was slightly lower than expected. According to the latest news on February 3, OPEC issued a statement on Wednesday, saying that Iraq remains committed to fully comply with OPEC’s oil production reduction policy and will compensate for the overproduced oil production according to the decision of OPEC and its allies. OPEC + actively and effectively reduced production to balance the current decline in demand caused by the epidemic and bring fundamental benefits to the oil supply and demand environment.

In the near future, the business community believes that oil prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term. At the macro level, after the US Biden administration takes office, it is urgent to launch large-scale stimulus measures, and the implementation may be accelerated later, which will bring direct and positive stimulus to the stock market and the oil market. The continuous promotion of vaccination also releases the expectation of rising demand. Although the epidemic trend has not yet been reversed, market confidence is still recovering slowly. The fundamentals of supply and demand also tend to be positive. At present, OPEC + production reduction policy continues to be effectively promoted. Iraq may compensate for production reduction in the later stage, and Libya’s production will also decline, which will balance the risks of the supply side. Moreover, according to the current signs, it is difficult for the US and Iran to return to the “Iran nuclear agreement”, and the short-term release of Iranian supply is not expected. However, the increase of shale oil production in the United States is still the main uncertain factor of crude oil supply in the future. Recent data show that the number of active drilling rigs for oil and natural gas in American energy companies has risen for ten consecutive weeks, and the increase of crude oil production in the United States is expected to increase significantly. However, the Biden administration will adopt a negative policy on traditional energy, and may achieve a certain degree of balance in the future. Overall, oil prices may remain high in the near future, and there is still the possibility of further exploration.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 3, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 21433 yuan / ton. Compared with the end of January (reference average price of silicone DMC on January 31, 21066 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 367 yuan / ton, or 1.74%; compared with the price on January 1, 2021 (reference price of 21833 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 400 yuan / ton, or 1.83%.

With the Spring Festival approaching, DMC gains steadily

At the end of January, the domestic silicone DMC market was stable and upward. Recently, there were more pre orders received by monomer factories, and the confidence of the industry increased. Some factories also received limited orders, and the market was generally positive.

In February, silicone DMC rose steadily again. A large factory in Shandong raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 500 yuan / ton in two days. Other factories also raised the ex factory quotation of silicone DMC by 200-300 yuan / ton. On February 3, the mainstream reference quotation of silicone DMC was around 21300-22000 yuan / ton. At present, in terms of demand, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the early preparation of goods has been completed one after another, and due to the limitation of logistics and transportation outage, the downstream factories have been shut down and on vacation one after another. This month, the downstream replenishment has gradually turned into just demand, and the market has remained stable. In terms of supply, the current plant of silicone DMC is open or shut down, and the overall arrangement of orders is based on orders.

As of February 3, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in mainstream areas of data monitoring was 21433 yuan / ton, which was 367 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of January (reference average price of silicone DMC was 21066 yuan / ton on January 31), or 1.74%; and 400 yuan / ton lower than that on January 1, 2021 (reference price was 21833 yuan / ton), or 1.83%.

Before the festival, the silicone DMC market is mainly stable

At present, the market price of organosilicon DMC is still reasonable after a steady correction. Some organosilicon DMC manufacturers receive orders in a limited amount, so they are confident that they will continue to be bullish after the festival. In addition, the current price has little risk for downstream replenishment and hoarding. Therefore, it is expected that the market of organosilicon DMC will fall slightly in the short term, and the overall market will be stable.

Trade name: ammonium chloride

Latest price (February 2): 652.50 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market of ammonium chloride rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic dry ammonium chloride was 652.50 yuan / ton on the 2nd, 2.35% higher than that of the previous day. The start-up of manufacturers has not changed much. According to the business community, at present, the overall start-up rate of Lianhe soda is about 70%, and the pressure on the supply side is not big. Some enterprises mainly place orders in the early stage, but do not accept orders at present. On the demand side, affected by the rising price of urea, the downstream has a preference for the purchase of ammonium chloride. According to the business community, the overall operating rate of domestic model compound fertilizer enterprises is between 40% and 50%. According to the monitoring of the business association, on February 2, 2021, Henan Jinshan United alkali plant was in normal operation. At present, the ex factory price of dry ammonium was increased to 620 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of wet ammonium was increased to 540 yuan / ton. On February 2, 2021, Sichuan Leshan Hebang Chemical Co., Ltd. was in normal operation with an annual output of 900000 tons. The inventory was low, and the ex factory price around dry ammonium was 600 yuan / ton. On February 2, 2020, Huai’an Chemical Co., Ltd The price of superior products of agricultural ammonium chloride of Bolian commerce and trade is stable. Now the price of dry ammonium chloride is 700 yuan / ton, and the price of wet ammonium chloride is 600 yuan / ton.

Future forecast, near the late Spring Festival procurement or will reduce, but high urea prices support, it is expected that the short-term ammonium chloride market will remain stable.

Domestic refined oil price adjustment “six consecutive rise” landing, but crude oil, gasoline steady small drop, poor gasoline demand expectations during the Spring Festival, MTBE market shipment blocked, domestic MTBE market price stable callback. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE on January 29 was 4550 yuan / ton, down 0.37% compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

Recently, the international crude oil market lacks directional news, and the implementation rate of OPEC’s production reduction has not reached 100% while the US crude oil inventory has decreased. This week, the international crude oil price is in high volatility. During the Spring Festival, domestic product oil demand is expected to be poor, and gasoline market just needs to weaken. This week, domestic gasoline prices fell steadily.

Recently, the price of international crude oil is weak. In addition, transportation around the world is hindered to some extent near the end of the year. Local refineries generally ship gasoline, and refineries purchase intermediate materials such as MTBE on demand. MTBE manufacturers lack confidence in the future market, so price reduction has become the mainstream.

MTBE product analysts of business society energy branch think: the upward trend of international crude oil price is blocked, gasoline price is stable and callback, and the purchase intention of intermediate materials such as MTBE is weakened. It is expected that MTBE market price will callback.

In January, the domestic silicon material market continued to rise and continued to push up. The prices of domestic and imported materials rebounded to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business society, polysilicon rose by 5.25% in January. The main reason is that with the normalization of operation rate of silicon material enterprises, the production capacity has basically reached the limit. However, the downstream silicon material manufacturers have increased their procurement efforts, which coincides with the centralized production of silicon wafer in the downstream. Under the superimposed influence, the price of polysilicon continues to rise. As of January 29, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material is 57000-60000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China region is 66000-70000 yuan / ton

Since the middle of December 2020, polysilicon has got rid of the fate of hovering at the bottom, and the price has begun to rise. In 2021, the market atmosphere is more positive. Both the transaction price of domestic manufacturers and the price of imported goods have a considerable upward range, especially the increase of monocrystalline silicon is relatively strong. Affected by this, although the increase of polycrystalline silicon is not as large as that of monocrystalline silicon, the market continues to warm up Still in the pattern of supply and marketing, the whole silicon industry ushered in a small spring market before the Spring Festival.

First of all, from the supply side, at present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers remains high. In January, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, especially in Sichuan, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other regions, which provides an increase in market supply. However, the current high operating rate does not lead to stock accumulation, and enterprises generally sign good orders Orders in January have been signed, and most manufacturers have signed orders in February.

There are two main factors: first, the centralized production capacity of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers brings new vitality to the market. Second, the centralized purchasing behavior before the Spring Festival also expanded the demand for silicon materials, and the downstream purchasing volume increased significantly. And recently downstream manufacturers are also accelerating the process of digestion. In particular, considering the risk factors of traffic congestion caused by the epidemic in the later stage, the downstream enterprises generally order in advance, so that the silicon material can be increased in large volume.

In the near future, it is expected that polysilicon will maintain a relatively strong trend before the year, the operating rate of enterprises is expected to maintain a high level in the near future, there are few maintenance plans for enterprises, and the supply is mainly stable. In addition, the demand for polysilicon materials should be maintained at a high level due to the continuous large-scale procurement of downstream silicon chips before the festival. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, there are certain risk factors in transportation, and the price of polysilicon may be easy to rise but difficult to fall before the Festival. After the festival, it is necessary to observe the inventory consumption rate of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers. At present, there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the downstream. If the shipment slows down in the later stage, the polysilicon material may stop rising or fall back.

Note: the above price includes tax

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was temporarily stable. The average price of cryolite in Henan this week was 5975 yuan / ton, which was stable within the week, up 1.27% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of cryolite in China was stable this week. The manufacturers in Henan started work normally, the storage capacity was sufficient, and the quotation was stable within the week. As of the 29th, the factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 5500-6800 yuan / ton, and the factory quotation of cryolite in Henan was 5000-6200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. According to the plant operation of manufacturers in Henan Province, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a capacity of 30000 tons / year, about 70% of the plant has started operation, Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full plant load and normal operation, and Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. has an annual capacity of 40000 tons of cryolite plant, which has no shutdown plan. At present, the cryolite market has sufficient inventory, and the downstream demand is general. Once the enterprise talks about selling the cryolite, the transaction is acceptable.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market rose slightly this week, with a price increase of 0.41% in the week. At present, the supply of fluorite in the yard is tight, and the downstream demand is fair. Due to the weather in the north, some domestic fluorite enterprises shut down, and the favorable impact of the rising downstream market, the fluorite price rose. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, this week’s price trend continued to decline, with a decline of 0.91%. At present, the electrolytic aluminum market is weak. As the holiday approaches, the downstream demand is reduced, and the aluminum consumption enters the off-season. Some aluminum manufacturers have a holiday ahead of time. It is expected that the market will be weak in the future.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic manufacturers of cryolite start work normally, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is general, the transaction of manufacturers is less, and the downstream lacks effective support. As the holidays are approaching, some manufacturers have holidays ahead of time and the impact of logistics, the market of cryolite is temporarily stable in the later stage, and the specific attention is paid to the market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the external market price of ethylene rose first and then fell in January. On January 1, the price was US $1024.00/ton. On January 28, the average price of ethylene was US $1012.00/ton, down 1.17%. The highest price was US $1086.75/ton on November 11, down 6.88% compared with the current price, down 0.83% on a month on month basis, and up 20.01% on a year-on-year basis.

In January, the external market of ethylene showed a trend of first rising and then falling. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $920-930 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $892-900 per ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated slightly. As of the 27th, FD closed at US $1110-1120 / T in northwest Europe and CIF closed at US $1106-1117 / T in northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fluctuates greatly, rising first and then falling, and there is a rising trend in the near future. As of the 27th, the price of ethylene is 726-739 US dollars / ton. The overall price of ethylene fluctuates greatly in January. The fluctuation of crude oil drives the fluctuation of ethylene market.

International: on January 27, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $52.85/barrel, up US $0.24. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell slightly, the settlement price of the main contract was 55.53 US dollars / barrel, down 0.11 US dollars. The international oil price fluctuated in a narrow range on Wednesday, with little change. On the one hand, the market still expected the United States to launch large-scale stimulus measures, which was boosted by the favorable news of the sharp reduction of U.S. crude oil inventory; on the other hand, the market’s continued concern about the epidemic depressed the expectation of oil price rise.

Recently, the domestic styrene market rose steadily, and the night market rose sharply, which was mainly driven by the rising funds, driving the spot market to be better. Affected by the heavy fog, the Yangtze River Estuary was closed, resulting in the delay of port arrival, the concentration of arrival within the week, and the wharf inventory began to rise. In the next week, the maintenance plant will restart, the load of the device will be increased, and the supply is expected to increase. Although the downstream start-up has declined, it is still higher than that in the same period, and the procurement has maintained just demand.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, U.S. crude oil inventory is declining, but the market’s continuous concern about the epidemic situation is restricting oil demand, international oil prices fluctuate slightly, and cost support is general. Therefore, data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall as follows.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of January 27, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade silica was 4700.00 yuan / ton, the market was running smoothly, the downstream just need to purchase, buy as you use, the overall market supply and demand balance, the quotation range was maintained between 4000-5000 yuan / ton, the shipment was smooth, and the inventory was sufficient.

The domestic rubber grade silica market has a stable trend, and the demand has not increased significantly. The downstream just needs to purchase. The merchants take the goods cautiously, and the delivery is slow. The operating rate is normal, and the focus of negotiation is stable. The willingness to prepare goods near the Spring Festival is not strong. Most of them are contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited. At present, the delivery is smooth, and the negotiation atmosphere is general,

In the upstream hydrochloric acid market, the quotation of manufacturers is temporarily stable, the supply side is normal, the purchasing enthusiasm is general, the market maintains a stable trend, the quotation is mainly stable, and the trading atmosphere maintains the early level.

On January 26, the chemical industry index was 850 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 16.34% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.14% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business community silica analysts believe that: in the short term, the silica market maintains a stable operation, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (the above prices are provided by major silica manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by business silica analysts. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.)

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of January 26, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2650 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day and that of last Tuesday (January 19), with a three-month cycle and a year-on-year increase of 24.22%.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has maintained a stable trend. The prices of most enterprises have maintained a high and stable level, and the cost has been generally boosted. The downstream factories purchase more on demand, and the market is mainly stable and wait-and-see. According to the data monitoring of business association, the price quotation of formic acid of some enterprises is summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton, the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2550 yuan / ton, the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 2800 yuan / ton, and the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Shandong tamasuk Chemical Co., Ltd. is 2600 yuan / ton It’s 2500 yuan / ton. The spot price of the merchants depends on the market. The actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

For upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was temporarily stable on January 25. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda was 400-530 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand was general. There was a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda, and it was expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda would be weak. For upstream liquid ammonia, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price quoted by enterprises was 3383.33 yuan / ton as of January 25, up 2.84% compared with the beginning of the month; The upstream sulfuric acid Market in Shandong was temporarily stable on January 25. The upstream sulfur market was recently consolidated at a high level, and the cost support was good. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid fluctuated slightly in the future. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of upstream methanol quoted by enterprises was 2335 yuan / ton as of January 25, which was down compared with last Tuesday (January 19) 06%, up 1.08% compared with the beginning of the month.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on January 25, 2021, in the list of commodity prices, there were 21 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which 2 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were paraformaldehyde (7.73%), lithium hydroxide (5.56%) and toluene (2.79%). There were 15 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were propane (- 12.56%), chloroform (- 6.21%) and propylene oxide (- 4.46%). The average daily rise and fall was – 0.03%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community formic acid analysts believe that the recent cost support is limited, and market trading is mainly on demand. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream are up, and the market price of aluminum fluoride in some areas is up by 100 yuan / ton, but on the whole, the factory price of aluminum fluoride enterprises is stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9166 yuan / ton on January 22, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price trend of fluorite market rose. As of the 22nd, the domestic price of fluorite was 2730 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.41% in January. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight. With the temperature dropping, some manufacturers in the north were parking, and the supply in the yard was slightly tight. The domestic price trend of fluorite rose slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite on the floor is supported by the cost of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rises due to the positive support.

Although the market price of aluminum fluoride in some areas has increased slightly, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride remains high and the market supply is sufficient; the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

Aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices rise, cost side is good for aluminum fluoride Market, and aluminum fluoride market price is expected to rise.