1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on September 30, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 12587.5 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.28% compared with the previous day, 3225 yuan higher than 9362.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 34.45% during the month and 88.44% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On the last working day before the National Day holiday on September 30, PVC still did not stop rising and continued to rise. The highest price of the main contract 2201 was 12210, with a daily increase of 3.36%. The spot market also rose at the same time, with a daily increase of 3.28%, about 88% higher than the level in the same period last year. The enterprise still continued to raise the price by about 400-500 yuan / ton, and now it is more than 12000 yuan / ton, There are also higher ones. Taking Lutai chemical as an example, the ex factory price of spot exchange has reached 13500 yuan / ton, Haohua Aerospace 8 has risen to 14200 yuan / ton, and some ethylene methods have also risen to about 13700-13800 yuan / ton. The overall focus of the market continues to move upward. At present, the output of raw calcium carbide has decreased due to the double control of energy consumption. In just a few days, the price has risen to 7800 yuan / ton, and there is still room for rise. The cost support is strong, the price reduction intention of PVC market is insufficient, and many orders are closed and suspended. In addition, there is still a certain demand for goods in the downstream before the festival, which helps PVC to continue to make up the rise. Although the transaction atmosphere is relatively general, it still has a certain toughness, Support PVC to keep running high.

According to the monthly increase and decrease from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021, it can be seen that PVC has mostly increased in recent years. Only in November 2020, January and June 2021, the price decreased, and increased sharply in September, reaching a new high in recent three years.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 12580-12700 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 12300-12600 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to rise.

Import and export: in August 2021, the import volume of PVC pure powder in China was 48200 tons, an increase of 33.7% month on month and a decrease of 60% year on year; In August, China’s export volume of PVC pure powder was 68900 tons, an increase of 11.1% month on month and 127.7% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, China imported 254000 tons of pure PVC powder, a decrease of 65.6% over the same period last year. From January to August, China exported 1234000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 290.5% over the same period last year.

The rise of the external price has boosted the rising atmosphere of the domestic PVC market. At present, CFR China Zhang 20 is at US $1420 / T, CFR Southeast Asia is up 100 at US $1510 / T, and CFR India is up 160 at US $1800 / T.

region workmanship 9 / 30 (yuan / ton) 9 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 12200-12500 9400-9500 + 2800/+3000 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 12250-12550 9410-9480 + 2840/+3070 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 12140-12240 9270-9370 + 2870/+2870 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 12520-13000 9250-9500 + 3270/+3500 Delivered

International crude oil, on September 29, the international oil price fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $74.83/barrel, down US $0.46 or 0.6%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.09/barrel, down US $0.26 or 0.33%. This was mainly due to the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and pressure on oil prices, but the difficulty in increasing production of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) limited the decline in oil prices.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose in September. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the month was US $1066.00/t, and the average price of ethylene at the end of the month was US $1124.75/t, an increase of 5.51%. The current price fell by 5.76% month on month, and the current price increased by 48.63% year-on-year.

Calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose sharply this month. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 5450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7600.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 2150 yuan / ton, or 39.45%. The calcium carbide market rose sharply in September. The business community expects that the calcium carbide market will fluctuate slightly in the middle and early October.

Data show that from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 9806 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. It is 15.9% higher than that from January to August 2019, with an average growth of 7.7% in the two years. Among them, the residential investment was 7397.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.0%. In terms of subregions, the growth rate in the central region is relatively fast. From January to August, the investment in real estate development in the eastern region was 5187.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; The central region invested 2061.4 billion yuan, an increase of 17.1%; The investment in the western region was 2183.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4%; The investment in Northeast China was 373.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, there is still room for upward movement, the cost support is still strong, and the PVC spot is still tight. There is still a certain replenishment demand in the downstream product industry before the festival, so the fundamentals are good, so the PVC price is not easy to decline. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the trend of raw material price.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (September 27): 25666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on September 29, the refrigerant R22 market rose slightly and operated stably temporarily. The mainstream price of raw hydrofluoric acid manufacturers rose to 11170 yuan / ton, the market price of methane oxide was at a high level, the price of chloroform was about 4200 yuan, the cost support was relatively strong, and the R22 market operated at a high level.

R22 market is expected to continue to run strong in the short term.

Trade name: lithium hydroxide

Latest price (September 26): 166333.33 yuan / ton

On September 28, the market price of industrial lithium hydroxide was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 37.09% compared with the price on September 1, and increased by 85.50% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the price of raw materials is high, the cost support is still strong, the downstream replenishment is on demand, and the market is stable and orderly.

It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of industrial lithium hydroxide may be dominated by high-level operation.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in September, showing an “n” trend. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 150133.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price fell slightly to 146566.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 2.38% and a year-on-year increase of 28.72%. The nickel price has fluctuated upward since it fell to the lowest price of the year on April 21 this year, reaching the highest price of 155100 yuan / ton on September 10, and then the high callback.

Macro factors

The dollar fell early this month, boosting metal prices. In the middle and late ten days, the US inflation data was lower than expected, the US dollar rebounded and metal prices fell. Domestic industrial added value in August fell to 5.3% lower than expected.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: in August, the actual output of ferronickel from China and Indonesia totaled 114800 tons, with a month on month increase of 1.98% and a year-on-year increase of 18.91%. The main mining area in the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season in October, the global shipping market is tight, and the shipping cost is rising sharply; Domestic ports are congested, ship demurrage is high, and the cost of factory raw materials increases.

Import: according to customs statistics, China’s nickel ore import volume in August was 5.7771 million tons, with a month on month increase of 11.37% and a year-on-year increase of 53.43%. In August, China’s ferronickel import volume was 349700 tons, with a month on month increase of 24.40% and a year-on-year increase of 19.78%. In August, China’s Refined Nickel import volume was 29243.762 tons, with a month on month increase of 30.18% and a year-on-year increase of 186.31%. The export volume of refined nickel was 114.83 tons, with a month on month decrease of 54.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 89.20%.

Downstream: 300 series stainless steel decreased by 12.97% to 1.28 million tons in September compared with August. Assuming that stainless steel maintains high-intensity production reduction in the fourth quarter, the annual ferronickel gap is 50900 tons, and the supply and demand of ferronickel is in a relatively tight balance from September to October. In August, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309000 and 321000 respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year; The loading capacity of power battery was 12.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 144.9% and a month on month increase of 11.2%.

To sum up: there were some changes in the fundamentals of nickel in September, and the nickel mine was always tight, but the dual control upgrading of many domestic provinces and the production reduction of the downstream stainless steel industry affected the production capacity of more than 370000 tons. As a raw material, nickel was worried about excess and put pressure on the nickel price. In October, in the rainy season in the Philippines, the supply will be further tightened. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate between 140-150 million yuan / ton in October.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of baking soda is rising. On September 25, the commodity index of baking soda was 178.76, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 102.52% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the price continues to rise. First, due to the dual control policy, the price of raw soda increases and the supply decreases. Second, in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food has improved recently. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda is running better in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

On the 24th, the propylene market in Shandong remained stable at a high level, and individual enterprises adjusted slightly. The propylene price in Shandong was 8000-8050 yuan / ton, and the propylene price is expected to reach a high point again. Combined with the market situation, it is mainly affected by two factors.

One. Crude oil prices have been showing a strong trend of shock. As of the closing on September 23, WTI rose 1.07 to USD 73.3/barrel in November, or 1.5%, and Brent rose 1.06 to USD 77.25/barrel in November, or 1.4%. Sc2111 rose 5.4 yuan / barrel to 477 yuan / barrel, and the cost side supported the price of propylene. Second, the downstream demand was good, and the downstream octanol, n-butanol, propylene oxide, acrylic acid and other products performed well. The demand support further boosted the price of propylene.

According to the monitoring data of business society, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the hydrogen peroxide Market heated up and the price rose one after another. On the 23rd, the hydrogen peroxide market quoted 846 yuan / ton, with the price rising by 1.2% compared with that before the festival.

Supported by the stock market on the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market has risen one after another. The quotation in Hebei is 850 yuan / ton, the price is increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical is 780 yuan / ton, which remains stable. Before the eleventh Festival, the hydrogen peroxide Market is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall.

Prices in East and South China rose today, flattening the spread. The “double control” is tightening. Oak Jinyan stops, LianHong Far East reduces the negative, the market is hard to find, the price of ethylene oxide tends to rise, and the price of downstream monomers also jumps. At present, the manufacturer’s ex factory quotation has exceeded 10000 yuan, and the market transaction price is uneven, ranging from 9600-10000 yuan / ton as a whole. The ex factory price of Sanjiang AEO-9 water purification has also risen by 300 yuan / ton to 11500 yuan / ton. Under the influence of the policy, the market has full support power, and the EO price is stable and the upward trend is obvious.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene stabilized after rising continuously this week. On September 10, the price of toluene was 5580.2 yuan / ton; On Friday (September 17), the price was 5660 yuan / ton, up 1.43% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.64%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the toluene market was driven by the sharp rise in the prices of refined oil and related aromatic products. Before the Mid Autumn Festival, a small amount of storage was replenished in the downstream, and the trading volume of toluene market increased. However, the downstream demand follow-up was limited, the overall market demand changed little, and toluene stabilized after rising.

In the external market, driven by the rise in oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia rose this week. As of September 17, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $789 / T, up US $36 / T or 4.78% month on month from September 10.

In terms of crude oil, hurricane IDA has a great impact on U.S. oil and gas production, and the recovery of oil and gas production is slow. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory have decreased, and the international oil price has shown an overall upward trend this week. On September 10, Brent rose $2.42 / barrel, or 3.32%; WTI rose $2.25/barrel, or 3.23%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price of domestic goods was 14266.67 yuan / ton, down 1.15% from last week and 20% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out, the on-site trading atmosphere is light, the downstream demand has not increased, the equipment of many domestic TDI factories is overhauled, and the supplier has no inventory pressure for the time being. However, the downstream transaction of the terminal is not smooth, the downstream follows up rationally, just needs to buy, and the operator’s mentality is mainly waiting to see.

In terms of PX market, in terms of PX market, the trend of domestic PX was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, an increase of 54.35% over the same period last year. As of September 17, the closing prices in Asia were USD 894-896 / T FOB Korea and USD 912-914 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the oil price may fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Under the “double control” policy, the downstream operating rate of toluene is affected, and the demand for toluene may weaken again. Overall, the weak situation of toluene is difficult to change, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. Pay attention to the operating rate and demand of downstream units, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. As of the 16th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7075 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site was normal and the sales situation was general.

The recent market price trend of phthalic anhydride is mainly stable, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene rises, the plasticizer market fluctuates and decreases, and the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride is stable. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers remained at a low level, and the operation rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was normal, the market price trend rose, the downstream plasticizer industry market was general, and the actual transaction was normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is temporarily stable, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 6900-7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6700-6800 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7000-7200 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The recent plasticizer market is poor. It is expected that the market price trend of phthalic anhydride will be stable in the later stage.