1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 1st, the spot nickel price rose slightly, with a quotation of 146333.33 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.21% over the previous trading day, 14.2% over the beginning of the year and 21.34% year-on-year. Today, Shanghai nickel opened at 143000 yuan, closing at 142710 yuan at the lowest, and closed at 143220 yuan at the end, down 1.28%. The trend of nickel in LME3 was stronger than that in domestic disk, and the focus was upward. At the deadline, it closed at US $19550, up 0.52%.

Recently, the nickel price fluctuated sharply. Basically, at present, the demand for nickel ore is insufficient, the price of ferronickel is high, the price of nickel fluctuates at a high level, the demand for nickel sulfate is low, and the supply and demand of downstream stainless steel are weak. Nickel is expected to maintain a broad shock trend in the short term.

Zinc prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price fluctuated and fell this week, and the zinc market fell passionately. As of October 30, the price of zinc was 23646.00 yuan / ton, down 5.01% from 24894 yuan / ton last weekend (October 22); After the surge of passion in the zinc market, the zinc price fell continuously this week, the passion of the zinc market faded and returned to the balance of supply and demand.

Zinc prices fell in the futures market

Zinc futures prices fell this week, dragging down zinc prices in the spot market. According to the data detection of business agency, the nonferrous metal index on October 30 was 1364 points, the same as yesterday, down 11.31% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18). This week, the nonferrous metal plate index fell sharply, the decline of nonferrous metal plate dragged down the zinc Market, and the zinc price in the current market fell continuously this week.

Market overview and future forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of zinc fluctuated and fell under the sharp decline of non-ferrous metal plate this week. With the intervention of national macro-control, the rising trend of non-ferrous metals in the early stage slowed down. With the continuous sharp decline of coal prices, the downstream supply and smelting expectations increased, alleviating the market supply pressure, and the zinc price fell. In the long run, the supply and demand of domestic zinc market is relatively balanced, but in the global market, the shutdown and production reduction in Europe seriously affect the supply of zinc market. The downward trend of zinc price will further erode the profit space of zinc smelters in Europe, exacerbate the pressure of shutdown and production reduction in the European market, reduce the supply of global zinc market, and the rise of international zinc price may be inevitable. In the future, the decline of zinc price is conducive to the return of the market to rationality, but the decline of zinc price exacerbates the supply shortage of zinc market, and the room for the decline of zinc price in the future is limited. It is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 16175 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam was stable on October 28, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the price of raw material pure benzene decreased and the cost support was weak. Caprolactam enterprises shut down many units, and some enterprises plan to restart. At present, the confidence of caprolactam is insufficient, and the overall market is weak.

Future forecast: caprolactam price is weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (October 27): 50666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on October 27, the price of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable and still held the early quotation. Some enterprises continued to increase. The current market price is 55000 yuan / ton, the price is high, and there is little room for negotiation. At present, the cost side has strong support, the units of refrigerant manufacturers are not saturated, the on-site supply is tightened, and R134a continues to operate at a high level.

R134a market is expected to remain stable at a high level in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 7018.25 yuan / ton on October 25 and 6813.25 yuan / ton on October 26, with a single day decline of 2.92%, an increase of 21.72% compared with October 1.

On October 26, the domestic propane market was dominated by weakness. The price center of Shandong market moved down, and the ex factory quotation fell sharply. Most of the ex factory quotations fell back below 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation in Shandong market was 6650-7200 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the inventory pressure increases, the price is greatly reduced, and the profit is mainly delivered. It is expected that the trend of propane market is weak in the short term.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (October 25): 2890.00 yuan / ton

On October 25, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on October 22. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 3700-3900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% red particles is about 3700-3800 yuan / ton; The price of 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 3550 yuan / ton; The arrival price of 60% potassium in Qinghai is about 3270 yuan / ton. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. It is said that the salt lake company may stop production for maintenance in November. On October 20, the first batch of State Reserve potash fertilizer has been successfully put on the market. It has been announced that there will be a second batch on October 22. It is rumored that it will continue to be put in later November and December.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, and the quotation is about 2900 yuan / ton.

Trade name: nitrile rubber

Latest price (October 22): 24900 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic nitrile rubber was 24900 yuan / ton on the 22nd, which was stable. The ex factory price of raw butadiene rebounded, the ex factory price of acrylonitrile was stable, and the cost side was supported compared with the previous period. The inventory of nitrile rubber market is small, which supports the high price of nitrile rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 22, the domestic Lanhua nitrile n41e reported 21900 yuan / ton; At present, 3305e is reported as 22800 yuan / ton; 3308e quoted 23900 yuan / ton. The quotation of market traders is mainly stable.

Future forecast: the market supply is tight, and there is little change in the start-up of downstream industries. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will continue to maintain a high level in the short term.

Price trend

On the 21st, the propylene market in Shandong continued to decline and the range increased. The propylene price in Shandong was 9200-9250 yuan / ton, and today the enterprise lowered 100-150 yuan / ton. The market trading returns to rationality, the willingness of downstream buyers is not strong, and the willingness of enterprises to take goods is obvious due to the impact of low-price goods.

Forecast: downstream demand is the main demand. Although the crude oil price continues to rise, the support is insufficient. It is difficult to further improve the long and short game in the propylene market. It is expected that the propylene market will maintain a weak shock in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price is strong. The average market price in Shandong is about 69500 yuan / ton, and the price is still high. On October 19, the bromine commodity index was 243.86, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 313.88% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is running at a high level, and the supply tension is difficult to solve. Now the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have started to support bromine. However, for the high price bromine, the downstream is now beginning to resist, focusing on multi-dimensional rigid demand. However, considering the tight supply of goods, it is expected that the short-term bromine price consolidation operation will be mainly based on the downstream market demand.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 174200 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 181400 yuan / ton

Analysis: Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the upward range has slowed down significantly. Some enterprises still raise the price of lithium carbonate. At present, due to the excessive pressure of power restriction superimposed cost of downstream enterprises, the procurement demand has weakened. In addition, the tension of industrial carbon and electric carbon shipment has been relaxed, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and there are relatively few transactions.

Forecast: at present, the price of lithium carbonate is rising slightly. The downstream wants to lower the price, deepening the game mood between the supplier and the demander. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term may be dominated by slow behavior.