1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, and the price fell from 5366.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5300.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.24%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride rose this week. This week, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes increased from 3500 yuan / ton last weekend to 3980.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 13.71%. On May 20, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 139.47, down 1.76 points from yesterday, down 1.25% from the highest point of 141.23 points in the cycle (2022-05-19), and up 44.21% from the lowest point of 96.71 points on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 3980 yuan / ton, an increase of 480 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5300-5400 yuan / ton. The price of Dahong granules is about 60-5200 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate increased slightly this week, from 9500.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 9550.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.53%, an increase of 42.11% over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate rose slightly this week, from 7350.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7383.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.45%, up 64.07% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, and the downstream customers have better demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

On May 19, 2022, the price of domestic crude benzene was 7065 yuan / ton, up 2.38% from the previous trading day.

On May 17, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $112.40/barrel, down US $1.80 or 1.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.93/barrel, down US $2.31 or 2.0%. Oil prices closed lower for the first time after four consecutive rises, mainly due to the hawkish remarks of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the expectation of substantial interest rate hike. In addition, there was news that the United States would relax restrictions on oil producing Venezuela, and oil prices fell.

Recently, the overall price of crude oil has risen, and the price of pure benzene in Asia has continued to rise, driving the price of domestic pure benzene to rise. The low inventory of ports in East China has once again boosted the market mentality, and the short-term bullish mentality has not decreased. At present, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8850-9250 yuan / ton. The upward price of the industrial chain boosted the mentality of crude benzene enterprises. This week, the bidding price opened higher and went higher, mainly upward.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 3502 yuan / ton on May 18, unchanged from the day before yesterday.

Coking coal prices are weak. In terms of origin, most coal mines maintain normal production, but the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the enthusiasm for procurement is reduced, and some coal shipments are under pressure; In terms of downstream coke prices, the profits of coke enterprises continue to tighten, the pace of raw coal procurement slows down, market pessimism lingers, and most of them purchase on demand. Generally speaking, the price may be weak, and the consolidation and operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

The coke market is running stably for the time being today, and the third round of lifting and lowering has been implemented in some areas. At present, the profits of coking enterprises are OK, the construction is active, and the enterprises are actively shipping. The recent profits of downstream steel mills are low, and they still have the mentality of keeping down the price of raw coke. At present, they maintain replenishment on demand. On the whole, the coke supply is loose, the downstream demand is suspended, and the market confidence is declining. It is expected that the coke market will remain stable and weak in the near future. In the follow-up, we will focus on the operating rate of the transportation steel plant and the coke inventory in all links.

On May 17, the rare earth index was 826 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 17.97% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 204.80% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose sharply, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 925000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 1125000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 930000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 940000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1205000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1140000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.64 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.635 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.4 million yuan / ton. The price of domestic light rare earth market has increased, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market has increased, while the price of terbium series has continued to rise. The downstream purchase is mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will rise in the later stage.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (May 16): 1072.00 yuan / ton

The price of sulfuric acid fell by 67.78% year-on-year on May 13, down from 16.5% in the domestic market. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate markets were consolidated at a high level, the titanium dioxide market fell slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid was general, and the product trend was downward under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Recently, the domestic sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and fall slightly, and the average market price is about 1050 yuan / ton.

441# silicon price trend

Metal silicon continued to be weak this week, and the spot price continued to decrease slightly. Due to the increase of construction in the southwest, more supply and less demand, and there was no obvious good news in the market, the decline of metal silicon was difficult to improve. As of May 13, according to the price monitoring of business society, the average price of domestic metal silicon market was 20180 yuan / ton, down 420 yuan / ton, or 2.04%.

The price of 441# silicon in various regions on the 13th is as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port area is 20200-20400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20300 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port area is 20000-202000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20100 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 19900-20100 yuan / ton, with an average of 20000 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 19600-19800 yuan / ton, with an average of 19700 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 20700-20900 yuan / ton, with an average price of 20800 yuan / ton.

Supply side

In April, the output of metal silicon was 276000 tons, up 39.9% year-on-year and 5.4% month on month. Under the continuous high level of petroleum coke, silicon coal and other raw materials, the silicon plant is facing the risk of cost inversion. The enterprises adjust the start-up according to their own experience. Most enterprises in Xinjiang have basically completed the maintenance, reopened and put into operation. Due to entering the normal water period, the power cost has decreased in Yunnan and Sichuan, and the factory’s enthusiasm for start-up has increased. Comprehensively, it is optimistic that the output of metal silicon may increase to around 280000 tons in May.

Demand side

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation was 21000 yuan / ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy increased month on month, but the speed was relatively slow, and the demand for metal silicon was still relatively flat.

The market of organosilicon DMC fluctuates. The market price of organosilicon DMC in mainstream areas is 26680 yuan / ton. Under the condition that the downstream demand of export machines is restrained, organosilicon is mainly subject to multi range shocks in the short term.

Polysilicon prices continue to remain strong, with an average price of 216666.67 yuan / ton in the mainstream market. Polysilicon manufacturers operate normally and basically produce at full capacity. The demand for metal silicon is stable and there is no more incremental space.

Future forecast

On the whole, the supply of metal silicon has increased, but the demand for downstream silicone and aluminum alloy has recovered slowly. The commencement of polysilicon has reached the upper limit, and the demand for metal silicon is weak. In the medium and long term, the demand will be released, forming a hedge against the supply. In the short term, it is still dominated by weak consolidation.

Market price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene Market on May 12 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on May 12

East China, 8800~8900

Shandong Province, 8500~8600

International crude oil futures rose sharply on May 11. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $99.76/barrel, up US $5.95 or 5.96%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $107.51/barrel, up US $5.05 or 4.93%. The epidemic situation in Asia has eased and demand concerns have slowed down; In addition, previous data showed that Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe decreased, and Russia announced to sanction some European natural gas companies. The news increased the expectation of future supply shortage in the global energy market, and the oil price rebounded sharply.

Crude oil fell for two consecutive days, with a decline of more than 9%. Pure benzene in Asia fell in the external market, and the cost support weakened. The downstream demand weakened and the styrene market fell, affecting the mentality of the pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene fell continuously. At present, the domestic price of pure benzene is 8500-9000 yuan / ton. Affected by this, at present, the commodities in the industrial chain have declined slightly, and the market price of hydrogenated benzene has decreased. Recently, the industrial chain has been strongly disturbed by crude oil, and it is expected that the future market will be weak and the trend will be dominated by shocks.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 14066 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam rose on May 11, up 0.24% compared with the previous trading day. Today, the domestic price of raw material pure benzene decreased and the cost support weakened. However, most caprolactam enterprises are in a state of loss, and the manufacturer’s quotation is firm. Downstream polymerization plants purchase on demand and follow up the demand carefully. Today, the listing price of Sinopec high-end caprolactam is 14800 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: in the short term, the caprolactam price will fluctuate at a high level, mainly finishing and operation.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 10): 10730 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on May 10, the market price of phosphoric acid was 10730 yuan / ton, up 0.19 from the previous day, up 103.09% year-on-year, and the price of wet acid was 10633.33 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day. Recently, due to the rising price of raw yellow phosphorus and the strengthening of cost support, the offer of phosphoric acid enterprises has increased, but the downstream demand has followed up half, and there is little room for rise. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus as raw material is about 38000-38500 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 10500-12500 yuan / ton.

The phosphoric acid market is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (May 9): 14633.33 yuan / ton

On May 9, the market price of acrylic acid in East China rose slightly, up 0.92% compared with the previous trading day and 4.52% compared with the price on April 9. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, the overall inventory of the industry is not high, the downstream demand is good, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is improved, and the market negotiation is mild and upward.

It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be strong in the short term.