Price trend

In February, the trend of domestic PA66 market was sideways after falling. According to the monitoring of the data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 21000 yuan/ton on February 28, with a decline of – 2.33% from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In February, the market of PA66 was poor, and the spot price was stagnant after falling. In terms of supply, the overall monthly load of domestic PA66 industry is more than 65%. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and abundant supply of goods on the site. In the upstream, the operating rate of adipic acid raw material increased within the month, and the expected increase in supply in the later period was negative for the market. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is also expected to increase, and the support of PA66 raw material end to the spot is weakened. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced supply. It is expected that PA66 will continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

The spot price of PA66 was weak in February. The market at the raw material end weakened, weakening the support for PA66 at the cost end. The load of PA66 enterprises is stable, and the overall inventory position is average. The demand side is weak in taking goods, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: at the end of February, the domestic maleic anhydride market rose first and then fell

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride as of February 28 was 7540.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 0.79% from 7600.00 yuan/ton on February 1.

The commodity index of maleic anhydride on February 28 was 71.03, down 1.69 points from yesterday, down 57.32% from the highest point of 166.43 points in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 38.78% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In February, the domestic phenylmaleic anhydride market continued to shut down. In late February, the upstream n-butane and liquid anhydride prices continued to decline, and the downstream resin replenishment was prudent, and the purchase was based on demand. As of the 28th, solid anhydride in Shandong was about 7200 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 7200 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7500 yuan/ton.

The trend of international crude oil prices in February was volatile. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remained high, and the economic data was strong. The month-on-month rise in inflation data in January made the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain role in supporting the international oil price, and Russia’s production reduction in March is expected to boost the oil price.

In February, the hydrogenation benzene market fell first and then rose, with a decline in the cycle. The ex-factory price in North China was 7166.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 6850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 4.42%. The market trend fluctuates with the trend of pure benzene as a whole. In terms of supply, some units in the field have been overhauled recently, and the supply is slightly lower than that in the previous period. In terms of demand, the downstream styrene is weak, and the overall demand has not changed much. Some downstream units have been restarted in the later stage, and the market expects that the demand in the future market is fair.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The maleic anhydride product analyst of the Business Club believes that at present, the benzene oxidation process in the domestic maleic anhydride market has a serious deficit, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small; In the near future, the price of n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has continued to decline, and some resins in the downstream are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in chasing up the price, and mainly purchase according to demand. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the near future.

Trade name: isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (February 27): 7500.00 yuan/ton

The domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly on February 27, up 433.33 yuan/ton, or 6.13%, compared with February 24, down 48.04% year-on-year. The price of raw material propylene fell slightly, and the cost support was general. The market price of neopentyl glycol in the downstream market was high, and the downstream customers had a good enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde procurement.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price will fall slightly, mainly in consolidation. The average market price is about 7000 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 19333.33 yuan/ton, 1.75% higher than the price of 19000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 4.50% higher than the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 10.48% higher than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 24, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24666.67 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the price of 24500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 10.30% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of February 24, chloroform rose 8.42% in the month, while hydrofluoric acid prices fell 1.71% in the month. The cost of raw materials continued to rise. Supported by the cost, the domestic R22 market price continued to rise slightly this week, and the R22 market price continued to rise.

In late February, the domestic trichloroethylene price hit the bottom and rebounded as a whole, and the hydrofluoric acid price fell by 1.71% within the month. In general, the upstream raw material cost of R134a stopped falling and rebounded as a whole. Supported by the cost recovery, some enterprises raised the factory price of R134a slightly this week, driving the domestic R134a price to rise slightly.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts of Business News believe that the upstream raw material cost continues to rise, and supported by the rising cost, it is expected that the domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to run steadily and moderately strong in the short term.

Acetic anhydride price fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 23, the price of acetic anhydride was 5250 yuan/ton, down by 0.94% from 5300 yuan/ton on February 16. The cost fell, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock this week.

The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of February 23, the price of acetic acid was 3166.67 yuan/ton, down 3.06% from the price of acetic anhydride on February 16, 3266.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of acetic acid dropped sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride dropped, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices fell first and then rose this week

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of February 23, the methanol price was 2770 yuan/ton, up 2.16% from the price of 2711.43 yuan/ton on February 16; Compared with the price of 2780 yuan/ton on February 1, the price fell by 0.36%. The price of methanol fell first and then rose this week, while the momentum for the rise of acetic anhydride remained.

Future prospects

Analysts of the acetic anhydride data of the Business Agency believe that the price of acetic acid fell this week, the price of methanol rose, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride fell in general demand, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of February 21, 2023, the price of domestic n-propanol was referenced at 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with February 13, 2023 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8000 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.62%.

It can be seen from the monitoring chart of the data of the business agency that in the near future (2.13-2.21), the domestic n-propanol market has generally risen slightly in the fluctuation. In the middle of February, Shandong Dachang slightly raised the price of n-propanol to drive the overall market up, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan/ton. In the second half of February, the downstream demand of n-propanol was general, and some operators were under pressure to ship. The market price of n-propanol fell slightly. On the 20th, the price of n-propanol factories in Shandong Province rose slightly, which led to the overall market atmosphere rebounding. As of February 20, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton (bulk water). The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and the negotiation is based on the actual order.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is general, the downstream demand is steadily released, and the supply and demand side of the n-propanol market is relatively calm. The n-propanol data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mostly operate in a range of fluctuations, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (February 20): 164.00 yuan/ton

The domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose slightly on February 20, up 8 yuan/ton or 5.13% from February 17, and down 34.40% from the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has increased. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been consolidated at a low level, and the ammonium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level. The downstream purchasing willingness is general.

Recently, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly, with the average market price of about 170 yuan/ton.

The price of DOTP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 17, the average price of DOTP was 9925 yuan/ton, down 1.24% from the average price of 10050 yuan/ton on February 10. The rise of DOTP was weak, and the price of DOTP fell in shock this week.

The price of raw materials fell sharply this week

According to the data detection of the business agency; As of February 17, the price of isooctanol was 9500 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from the price of isooctanol of 9733.33 yuan/ton on February 10. The demand is weak, the price of isooctanol fluctuates and falls, the cost of DOTP falls, and the downward pressure of DOTP price increases.

According to the data of the Business Agency, as of February 17, the PTA price was 5522.73 yuan/ton, down 1.70% from the price of 5618.18 yuan/ton on February 10; Compared with the price of 5476.36 yuan/ton on February 15, the price increased by 0.85%. The cost support is insufficient, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment remains, the PTA demand is weak, the PTA price fluctuates and falls this week, the DOTP cost support is insufficient, and the DOTP will fall under great pressure in the future.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the Business Agency, the raw material of plasticizer DOTP, isooctanol, fell sharply this week, the price of PTA stopped falling, the price of plasticizer DOTP raw material fell, the demand for DOTP was weak, and the cost of DOTP fell. It is expected that DOTP will fall sharply in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5566 yuan/ton on February 10, and the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5733 yuan/ton on February 16. The price of chlorinated paraffin rose 2.99% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin rose this week. The price of raw material liquid chlorine continued to rise this week, and the cost support was strengthened. At present, the market demand is stable, the trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the chlorinated paraffins market is operating steadily and well. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and terminal demand is to be released. As of February 16, the ex-factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province was about 6300 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province was about 5400 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose first and then fell this week. The market transaction atmosphere was not good, and the liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose this week, with good market transactions and smooth enterprise shipments.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of the Business Agency, the chlorinated paraffin market is going well with the rising price of liquid chlorine as the raw material of chlorinated paraffin. At present, intra-site trading has increased, and downstream demand has gradually warmed up. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will rise steadily in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong fell from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 8.75%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 31.29% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on February 12 was 71.57, which was the same as yesterday, down 47.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 103.61% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week: Jianlan Chemical’s octanol unit is under maintenance; Lihuayi isooctanol quoted 9600 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1000 yuan/ton from the end of last week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 10000 yuan/ton of isooctanol at the end of the week, down 800 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The price fell from 7623.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7558.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.85%, down 9.05% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The price of DOP dropped by 6.16% from 10710.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10050.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 23.28% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Future prospects

In the middle and late February, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.