Commodity index: on March 12, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 92.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.94% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.67% from 91.59, the lowest point on March 9, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

 

Price: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on March 13, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is about 14600-15800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (anion) market is about 8500-10000 yuan / ton.

 

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Industrial chain:

 

Upstream: from January to March 2020, the main quotation of acrylonitrile in the domestic market will be lowered. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the decade, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, decreased by 200 yuan / ton on 24, decreased by 300 yuan / ton on 27, and decreased by 150 yuan / ton to 8850 yuan / ton on 28 , 1750-1800 yuan / ton lower than before, about 17% lower than before; in March, acrylonitrile continued to reduce, to 8100 yuan / ton on March 10, the price was stable on November 12, and has dropped about 750 yuan / ton so far this month.

 

Downstream: at present, the impact of downstream water treatment project construction enterprises has not been completely eliminated, the construction will be gradually restored, and the demand will gradually increase in time.

 

Manufacturer: Gongyi factory, the main production area of Henan Province, started to resume production on February 20 or so, with normal production and continuous consumption of inventory. It is reported that the current transportation price has returned to normal, the price of raw materials is down, and the cost of polyacrylamide manufacturers has been reduced.

 

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Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work. At present, the logistics in March is back to normal, and the inventory is constantly consumed. It is reported that the logistics cost in some regions has increased since, and the quotation has increased during the period of less vehicle return to work due to the delay in construction. However, after most logistics enterprises go to work recently, the transportation cost has been reduced, the downstream construction has been carried out successively, the demand has recovered, and the shipment is normal.

 

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile continues to decrease. The current price has been a low price for many years. The cost of polyacrylamide has been greatly reduced. In addition, the transportation cost has been reduced. The price of manufacturers with high inventory is slightly preferential. The downstream construction will resume gradually, and the demand will increase gradually. However, in the case that the impact of the epidemic has not been completely relieved at present, the demand impact still exists. The market price of polyacrylamide may be adjusted in the future, but it is more likely to be stable.

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Since the Spring Festival, the non-ferrous metals have experienced three rounds of decline, including concentrated release of negative domestic epidemic, panic outbreak of overseas epidemic, crude oil slump and decline, and copper, aluminum, zinc and other varieties have basically fallen to the bottom range since 2017. At present, the overseas epidemic is still on the rise, and the domestic resumption of work is gradually warming up. How to deduce the non-ferrous disk? When can the price break through the bottom?

 

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The overseas epidemic is not at its peak, but it is expected to be partially fulfilled

 

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the non-ferrous market has mainly fulfilled the negative expectation of consumption. Taking copper as an example, the focus of the market during the Spring Festival is the sharp decline of domestic consumption. Luntong fell from 6200 US dollars / ton to 5500 US dollars / ton. After the festival, due to the effective prevention and control of China’s epidemic, the market is expected to recover and the copper price is slightly repaired. However, the overseas epidemic gradually broke out in the middle of February, and the crude oil plummeted in March due to the price war. The fear of global recession made the copper price fall in a new round. Luntong went down to 5400 USD / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic prevention has entered the second half of the year, but the overseas epidemic has not reached its peak. What is the actual impact of the overseas epidemic? We have combed China’s position in the global industry chain of nonferrous metals, and tried to deduce the impact of domestic epidemic abroad, in order to get the price guidance.

 

In the global industrial chain of non-ferrous metals, China plays an important role as a consumer, with each variety accounting for 40% – 60% of global metal consumption. In contrast, mineral resources are relatively poor, but smelting capacity is huge, and most of the metal resources are in the state of net import. According to the distribution of supply and demand, the six kinds of non-ferrous metals can be divided into three types: copper and nickel are similar in supply and demand matching, all of which are poor in domestic mineral resources, with large smelting capacity, but still unable to meet the consumption demand, with net imports of ore, intermediate products and smelting finished products; aluminum, zinc and tin mines are relatively rich in resources, but still unable to self-sufficient, and need to import raw ore to meet the smelting demand Smelting needs, the smelting capacity is large, which can basically meet the domestic demand, so the import demand of smelting products is small; the mineral and smelting capacity of lead are relatively matched with consumption, and the domestic supply and demand tend to be closed-loop.

 

Reviewing the impact of novel coronavirus pneumonia on non-ferrous industry chain, we can observe from three links: mining, smelting and processing. Some mines are subject to logistics, personnel and other problems, so it is difficult to return to work after the festival, resulting in regional and staged ore resource shortage, leading to price rise, such as alumina price rise due to short supply of raw materials recently. The smelting process is not directly affected by the epidemic situation. Most of the metal smelting plants have high automation level and do not need intensive labor force to participate. For example, the production of electrolytic aluminum production enterprises basically maintains normal level. However, the logistics problems caused by the epidemic and the suspension of production activities in the severely affected areas have resulted in a backlog of by-products in some industries, such as the expansion of sulfuric acid storage in copper and zinc smelters, which forced the smelting industry to passively reduce production. The impact of the epidemic on the primary downstream, i.e. the processing plant, is huge. This is mainly due to the fact that on the eve of the Spring Festival, under the strict national defense against the epidemic, the resumption of work of the processing plant after the festival has been delayed again and again, which has also resulted in the large accumulation of non-ferrous varieties.

 

Will the gradual spread of overseas epidemics have a significant impact on the supply side of nonferrous metals? From the current situation, the main non-ferrous metal mineral areas, such as South America, Southeast Asia and Australia, have not yet seen serious epidemic situation, and the mine production is relatively stable. Smelting and processing capacity in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States are relatively intensive. Although some countries are suffering from severe epidemic, normal production activities have not been significantly disturbed, and supply is relatively stable. Is there any risk of interference in the future? Different from the domestic situation, there is no long holiday to interrupt production overseas, and the policy style and cultural background at home and abroad are different, so it is unlikely that the production of enterprises will be subject to administrative restrictions. However, the spread of the overseas epidemic is also uncertain. Some regional traffic restrictions, such as the regional closure in Italy and similar policies that may appear in other countries in the future, will interfere with the trade chain of the industry. The production chain is interrupted, the impact is complex, the market is split, and the prices between regions may form huge differences. China is a net importer of metals. Domestic demand is expected to rebound strongly under the control of the epidemic. If there is any interference in the supply of overseas raw materials, it may have a potential positive impact on the internal price.

 

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Looking at the impact of the epidemic on consumption, whether at home or abroad, the expected consistency of the market is short. The negative impact of the epidemic on domestic consumption has been reflected in some economic data in February. At this stage, the downstream is busy resuming work, and the market is more expected to demand compensatory rebound. On the other hand, the actual negative effect of the epidemic on consumption has not been clearly reflected overseas. The key factors determining the actual impact of the epidemic are what policies countries will eventually adopt and what impact they will have on social production and life. However, it is relatively certain that under the current situation of only expectation, the pessimism of consumption has been realized on the market. Before new variables appear overseas, the current pessimism expectation is not enough to cause the colored price to fall out of the new low.

 

The pace of domestic resumption of work is speeding up, and the turning point of inventory still needs to wait

Since the end of February, the domestic resumption of work has been carried out in full swing, and the pace has been further accelerated since March. From the high-frequency data, it is observed that the average daily coal consumption of the six power plants has returned to more than 70% before the saving, the scale of national migrant workers has been significantly improved, and the congestion index of major cities continues to rise. From the perspective of the spot market of non-ferrous metals, although the overall transaction volume is still light, the range of spot discount has been significantly narrowed, some varieties have turned into rising water, and the downstream demand has been restored.

 

Affected by the epidemic situation, the seasonal accumulation time of non-ferrous metals has been prolonged, and the accumulation range has increased significantly. At present, there is no peak inventory. Based on the accumulation period of previous years, the stock peak of copper, aluminum and zinc mostly appears near the sixth week after the festival, the downstream resumption of work this year has been extended for more than two weeks, and the capacity utilization rate after the early resumption of work is also low, now it is the seventh week after the festival, it is reasonable to speculate that the accumulation period will continue for 1-2 weeks, and the stock may peak in the middle and late March.

 

The second quarter has always been the peak season of industrial activities, especially in the areas of real estate, home appliances and other non-ferrous intensive consumption. This year, in order to hedge the negative impact of the epidemic, policy support for special debt and infrastructure investment has been increased, the 1.29 trillion local special debt limit has been issued in advance, and the effect of infrastructure development is expected to appear in advance. From the perspective of domestic demand, the demand for non-ferrous metals, especially copper, aluminum and zinc, is expected to rebound significantly in the second quarter on a month basis. After the inventory inflection point appears, the rate of destocking may exceed that of previous years.

 

The elasticity of price downward is limited, and the rhythm of stages should be grasped

 

Considering that the pessimistic expectation of the overseas epidemic has been partially fulfilled and that there is no longer a black swan outside, the short-term downward elasticity of metal prices is relatively small after falling to the bottom since 2017. For copper, the increase of ore end is limited and the supply is released. The smelting industry with low profit has operational risk. The price of aluminum is close to the cost line of the industry. Although zinc is in the bear market cycle, after a sharp fall, the cost constraints and the clearing of mine capacity are slow, making it difficult for the price to fall to the bottom in a one-step manner. At present, the overseas epidemic is still on the rise, and the good expectation of domestic consumption has not been fulfilled. It is difficult for nonferrous metals to show a trend upward in the short term. However, in the case of less elasticity below, the cost performance ratio of chasing short is not high. Perhaps the better choice is to consider the elasticity of price stage upward, and pay attention to the guidance given by the evolution of the epidemic in Europe and the United States and the inflection point of domestic inventory.

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1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

 

Nitric acid price curve

 

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week is 1500 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid enterprise is stable temporarily, the price of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1350 yuan / ton; the price of Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1450 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the price of Wenshui County Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1780 yuan / ton; the price of Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1700 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the demand of nitric acid market is still light.

 

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Industry chain: the transportation problem eased and the demand for liquid ammonia recovered. Liquid ammonia continued to maintain an upward trend, with an increase of 0.36% this week. For the downstream aniline, this week’s aniline price was lowered. The price in Shandong was 6700 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The price in Nanjing was 6900 yuan / ton, 400 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

To sum up, the nitric acid market demand is light and stable, and the nitric acid analysts of the business association predict that nitric acid may continue to adjust.

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According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower. As of March 9, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method is 5637.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China is slightly lower, the demand of plasticizer industry is general, and the market of phthalic anhydride is stable and slightly lower.

 

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In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been slightly lower, the transportation of chemicals has been alleviated, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers still have inventory and poor delivery. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell slightly, the downstream factories shut down a lot, the factory inventory pressure increased, the high-end transaction was blocked, the recent factory inventory increased, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined. In East China, 5500-5700 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for neighboring method and 5300-5500 yuan / ton is the main flow of negotiation for naphthalene method; in North China, 5400-5700 yuan / ton is the main quotation for phthalic anhydride market, most of the manufacturers in the site have stable prices, the downstream construction is not high, the main purchase is on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the site is normal, in addition to phthalic anhydride Travel demand is not good, for phthalic anhydride on-demand procurement, phthalic anhydride price trend slightly down.

 

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In recent years, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec fell to 5600 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic anhydride in port area was slightly lower, and the quotation fell. In recent years, the port phthalic acid market was weak, the port inventory was increased, and the external quotation of phthalic acid was lower. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, which was discussed in detail. Influenced by the low price of upstream raw material phthalic acid, the market price of phthalic anhydride was slightly lower.

 

The price of downstream DOP raw materials isooctanol fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, DOP enterprises operated at low load, the recent logistics and transportation were limited, it was difficult to get out of the warehouse, and DOP manufacturers’ inventory increased. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fell, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The mainstream quotation of DOP market is about 6700-7200 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizer is traded, the upstream ox price slightly drops, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will slightly drop in the later stage.

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1、 Price trend:

 

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the caustic soda is mainly in stable operation this week. The average market price in Shandong from the beginning of the week to the end of the week is 602.5 yuan / ton, with stable price. On March 5, the caustic soda commodity index was 86.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 58.09% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.32% from 73.27, the lowest point on March 29, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: the price of caustic soda is stable this week. The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda market in Shandong Province is stable, with a quotation of about 580-650 yuan / ton. The caustic soda enterprises have devices to stop, the market supply is reduced, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the trend of narrow consolidation will run in the short term. The caustic soda market in Jiangsu Province is stable for the time being, with the main stream of 32% of the caustic soda market of 630-740 yuan / ton. The market is relatively stable with low load operation and weak trading. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia is stable. The local mainstream price of 32% caustic soda is 1300-1400 yuan / ton (converted into 100 yuan). The downstream transaction is general, the market atmosphere is light, and the enterprise is mainly flexible in shipment.

 

Industrial chain: the overall domestic caustic soda market has not changed much, and the start-up of printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, chemical industry and other industries downstream of caustic soda is still flat, with general changes in market demand. Quotation of caustic soda Market: the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province is weak, 99% of the main factory price of caustic soda is about 2300-2600 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand is low, the market transaction is general, and it is expected that more weak operation will prevail in the later stage. About 2500-2600 yuan / ton in Jiangsu.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), there are 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodity and 2 rising and falling commodity in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities that rose were light soda ash (0.21%); the main commodities that fell were PVC (- 3.80%) and calcium carbide (- 0.58%). This week’s average was – 0.83%.

 

According to the analysts of business cooperatives, the overall demand of domestic caustic soda market continues to be weak, the shipment of chlor alkali enterprises is flat, and the transportation is better than before, but at present, there is a wait-and-see mentality, the downstream demand is average, the market transaction is flat, and it is expected that the domestic caustic soda market will maintain the consolidation operation.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the average ex factory price of domestic grade 52 chlorinated paraffin on February 1 was 4933 yuan / ton, and that of domestic grade 52 chlorinated paraffin on February 29 was 4933 yuan / ton, which was stable in February. Up to now, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on March 4 is 73.45, which is the same as yesterday, 32.88% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 15.04% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: low level of chlorinated paraffin at present. At present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4600-5400 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 4700-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4700-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 4800-5500 yuan / ton.

 

Industry chain: the market trend of raw material liquid wax is stable, downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and the market atmosphere is weak. The liquid chlorine market has picked up slightly, the transportation has started to recover gradually, and the price has risen slightly.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in February 2020, there are 28 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluoric acid (8.40%) and fluorite (8.05%). There are 48 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 27 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 22.76%), propane (- 21.45%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 18.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 2.53%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association thinks that the current market of chlorinated paraffin is cold, the order is scarce, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the operating rate is not high. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain weak and stable in the later stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw materials and the downstream demand.

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In 2019, the chemical market experienced twists and turns, ending with a unilateral downward low in the fourth quarter. Up to now, the bulk chemical market has been downward for five consecutive months. Affected by public events, the market will continue to bottom out in 2020. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the chemical industry index on March 2 was 713, down 4 points from yesterday, down 29.82% from the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 18.83% from the lowest point 600 on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

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According to the price monitoring of 100 PPI. Com, a bulk commodity data provider under the business treasure of netsheng, in February 2020, there were 28 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall, 2 kinds less than that in January, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, which was flat compared with that in January, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector, and the top 3 commodities were sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluorocarbon (5.7%), respectively Acid (8.40%), fluorite (8.05%).

 

A total of 48 commodities decreased on a month on month basis, an increase of 7 kinds compared with that in January, among which 27 commodities decreased by more than 5%, an increase of 22 kinds compared with that in January, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector. The top three commodities falling were butadiene (22.76%), propane (21.45%) and hydrogen peroxide (18.21%). The average increase and decrease in February was – 2.53%, 0.02% higher than that in January, and the number and decline of product decline in February increased.

 

Public events in February affected all aspects of production, transportation and demand in the bulk chemical market. However, under the overall trend of the chemical industry market, there are also several brightest stars:

 

1、 The supply is insufficient, and the performance of fluorine chemical raw materials is the most outstanding.

 

In February, the fluorine chemical industry rose 2.81%. Among them, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose sharply in February. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3133.33 yuan / ton, 8.05% higher than the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 5.50% higher than the same period last year. After the Festival, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant was relatively low, the number of mines and flotation plants in the site was less, and the supply of fluorite in the site was very tight. In February, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream rose significantly, 8.4% higher as a whole Starting low, purchasing on demand for fluorite market, and improving the delivery in fluorite yard. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in higher market price. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work, the domestic R22 supply is normal, downstream enterprises purchase on demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising, business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market price of fluorite may remain high.

 

2、 Seasonal demand, fertilizer sector deserves attention.

 

In February, the urea market fell first and then rose. Most of the fertilizer enterprises started production in the first ten days. Due to the transportation difficulties, the inventory backlog was serious, resulting in the limited production of the manufacturers. With the increase of agricultural demand, the increase of demand stimulates the urea manufacturers to make higher offers, and the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises gradually increases, the plate plant also gradually starts, and the demand is gradually warming up. With the increase of the demand of terminal farmers, the whole fertilizer industry chain from urea is gradually warming up, and the trading volume is increasing.

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3、 Global crude oil demand worries have increased, petrochemical industry chain has been hit, and overall breadth has declined.

 

Social and public events continue to spread around the world, and market worries about global crude oil demand increase. In late February, international crude oil continued to fall, WTI (February 28) WTI 44.76 fell $2.33/barrel; Brent 50.52 fell $1.66/barrel. China’s SC crude oil futures fell 12.2 yuan to 357.2 yuan / barrel in 2004. International crude oil continued to decline, resulting in weak cost support for downstream petrochemical products, and the petrochemical industry chain was hit, with most of the industry chains in green.

 

In February 2020, there are 0 rising commodities and 11 falling commodities in the list of propylene industry price rise and fall. The whole industrial chain has been severely damaged, with a wide fall and 0 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities falling were epichlorohydrin (- 14.29%), acrylic acid (- 10.04%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 9.39%). The average increase and decrease in February was – 6.97%.

 

In February 2020, there are 0 rising commodities, 5 falling commodities, and 1 rising commodity. The main commodities falling were styrene butadiene rubber (- 12.94%), styrene (- 7.37%) and pure benzene (- 6.76%). The average rise and fall in February was – 5.73%.

 

In February 2020, there are 0 rising commodities, 8 falling commodities and 0 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phenol ketone industry. The main commodities falling were acetone (- 8.00%), pure benzene (- 6.76%) and butanone (- 5.75%). In February, the average rise and fall was – 4.9%.

 

To sum up, after six consecutive trading days of decline in crude oil, stimulated by the favorable policies and production reduction, the first day of bottom reading rebound of crude oil on the 3rd, and the impact on petrochemical products will take a long time to be transmitted to the whole industrial chain, but the impact of the spread of global events on crude oil can not be ignored, and the worry of demand reduction may continue. Although the short-term good will stimulate the market, it will pull the terminal It still needs to digest time; Zhao Tingting, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that in the short term, the impact of the event has developed into a global focus, and the impact on the bulk chemicals is the supply and demand ends. Under the double impact of the international and domestic weakness, and the lack of energy cost support, the overall recovery in March is not promising, but the decline will be tightened, and the chemicals market biased towards the end will gradually recover The seasonal demand drives the fertilizer sector to continue to warm up, and the demand for APIs and plastic resins may take the lead.

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1、 Price trend

 

The domestic BDO market continued to wait and see. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 28, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9680 yuan / ton, down 1.18% month on month, up 2.84% year on year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Product: the domestic BDO market was lower this week. Due to the inventory pressure and the continuous sluggish downstream demand, and the shortage of raw materials in some factories, some BDO factories cut the load again, resulting in the market start-up to about 51.6%. At present, the commencement of downstream industries is on the low side, especially the main downstream PBT industry, which is maintained at about 40%, with weak consumption capacity and weak short-term demand for replenishment. Although the manufacturer has the mentality of shipping, the downstream consumption transmission is limited, the actual single transaction is limited, the listing is not strong for the time being, and the low price transaction in the market is heard. At present, the supplier is seeking stability, while the demand is more bearish, and the supply and demand continue to play the game.

 

In terms of equipment, this week, Heci shut down due to air separation unit failure on February 17, and raised to 80% after restart on February 23; Kaixiang load reached 50%; Meike phase III shut down, and phase I and phase II units operated stably; Tianye phase I 30000 ton units operated normally, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; the current load of Dongyuan is 30%; the first phase of Tunhe river is shut down, the second phase is 5-6%; the load of Shaanxi chemical industry is 60%; the load of new industry is reduced to 30%; the load of Guotai is heard to be 6-7%; the black cat is heard to stop. The overall market operating rate this week is around 51.6%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

 

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, the market of methanol and methanol is on the rise as a whole. With the evacuation of high-speed checkpoints in various regions, demand and traffic capacity have been restored, and the overall trading atmosphere is good. This week, the main trade volume in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan / ton to 1600-1650 yuan / ton ex factory cash, mainly for olefins. A large number of factories in Guanzhong area stock out, the main transaction rose to 1650-1700 yuan / ton of ex factory cash, Baoji Changqing recovered to full load production, Xianyang chemical week in the middle of the stop, the current load. The main price in Xinjiang has risen to 1100-1130 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, and most of the goods are sent to Ningxia. In Qinghai Province, Zhonghao and Guilu continued their maintenance. The gas supply of the plant is in the negotiation stage. The restart time of the plant is expected to be postponed to the middle of March.

 

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Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide Market as a whole shows a downward trend, but the purchase price has declined by a large margin, and the decline this week is also different due to the different increase in the early stage. The overall reduction is 50-150 yuan / ton. However, the factory price is more stable, and the price is more stable and less dynamic, with the decline of 50 yuan / ton for some enterprises. Due to the recent weakness of PVC price, high inventory, low start-up of downstream products, it is difficult to support the cost of calcium carbide, and it is difficult to improve the demand of PVC in recent days. It is expected that, driven by the lower purchase price, the factory price will be difficult to maintain stability, and the key will still be lowered in the near future.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Due to high inventory this week, the on-site construction decreased again. Although the main factory announced the listing price in March, the terminal resumed work slowly, the overall downstream load continued to be low, the demand was difficult to rise, the inquiry atmosphere was light, the actual single delivery was even less, and the new price guidance was not strong. The current inventory of BDO is estimated to be about 90000 tons, and the consumption still needs time. At present, the supply side is stable in the market, and the downstream is bearish, etc. the mentality is different, and the supply and demand game continues. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will run in a light way. In the long term, the risk of a downturn will not be ruled out, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream resumption of work and the actual transaction.

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1、 Price trend:

 

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, in February, the price of o-xylene Sinopec contract fell, and the o-xylene market was weak. As of February 29, the contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 5800.00 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton or 7.94% compared with 6300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Compared with the same period last year, the price dropped by 14.71%.

 

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2、 Market analysis:

 

External offer

 

Commodity name quotation type port price time

O-xylene FOB US Gulf 893.02 USD / ton 2020 / 2 / 21

O-xylene CFR China $745.00/t 2020 / 2 / 21

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $745.00/t 2020 / 2 / 21

O-xylene FOB South Korea $745.00/t 2020 / 2 / 21

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp USD 870.00/t 2020 / 2 / 21

O-xylene FOB US $876.49/t in the Gulf of Mexico 2020 / 2 / 14

O-xylene CFR China $750.00/t 2020 / 2 / 14

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $750.00/t 2020 / 2 / 14

O-xylene FOB South Korea $750.00/t 2020 / 2 / 14

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp USD 885.00/t 2020 / 2 / 14

O-xylene FOB US $876.49/t in the Gulf of Mexico 2020 / 2 / 7

O-xylene CFR China $750.00/t 2020 / 2 / 7

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $760.00/t 2020 / 2 / 7

O-xylene FOB South Korea $770.00/t 2020 / 2 / 7

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp $880.00/t 2020 / 2 / 7

O-xylene FOB US Gulf 893.02 USD / ton 2020 / 1 / 31

O-xylene CFR China 820.00 USD / ton 2020 / 1 / 31

O-xylene CFR Southeast Asia $815.00/ton 2020 / 1 / 31

O-xylene FOB South Korea 820.00 USD / ton 2020 / 1 / 31

O-xylene FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp USD 875.00/t 2020 / 1 / 31

 

As can be seen from the table, the price of benzene in February fell sharply. In February, the price of benzene in China fell by $75 / T; the price of benzene in South Korea and Southeast Asia fell by $75 / T and $70 / T respectively. The external price of ortho benzene fell sharply, the price of imported ortho benzene fell, the market of port ortho benzene fell, which was negative for the future ortho benzene market.

 

Factor analysis of industrial chain

 

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From the trend chart of raw material mixed xylene and o-benzene, it can be seen that influenced by the drop of crude oil price, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply in February, the cost of o-benzene fell, the price of o-benzene fell, and the pressure of o-benzene market fell greatly.

 

From the perspective of downstream customers, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in February, the commencement of phthalic anhydride enterprises recovered gradually but remained at a low level, and the demand for plasticizer and PVC was poor, the demand for phthalic anhydride fell, phthalic anhydride dragged down the market of o-benzene, the demand for o-benzene downstream was poor, the market of o-benzene was bad, and a small number of o-benzene transactions. The market of orthobenzene is weak.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst for o-xylene from the business association, believes that the domestic epidemic continued to affect in February, and that downstream enterprises started to recover slowly, and limited by logistics and transportation, a small number of transactions were made in the o-xylene market. The external market price fluctuated and fell, and the overall domestic and international neighboring benzene market was not good and weak. From the perspective of the future market, the start-up of ortho benzene enterprises is normal, the inventory is overstocked, the downstream enterprises resume construction slowly, and the demand is not good. Although the cost of ortho benzene has increased, the overall downward pressure is large. It is expected that the future market of ortho benzene will be in a weak position, with a large downward pressure.

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