In 2019, the chemical market experienced twists and turns, ending with a unilateral downward low in the fourth quarter. Up to now, the bulk chemical market has been downward for five consecutive months. Affected by public events, the market will continue to bottom out in 2020. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the chemical industry index on March 2 was 713, down 4 points from yesterday, down 29.82% from the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 18.83% from the lowest point 600 on January 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)
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According to the price monitoring of 100 PPI. Com, a bulk commodity data provider under the business treasure of netsheng, in February 2020, there were 28 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity price rise and fall, 2 kinds less than that in January, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, which was flat compared with that in January, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector, and the top 3 commodities were sulfur (10.60%), hydrofluorocarbon (5.7%), respectively Acid (8.40%), fluorite (8.05%).
A total of 48 commodities decreased on a month on month basis, an increase of 7 kinds compared with that in January, among which 27 commodities decreased by more than 5%, an increase of 22 kinds compared with that in January, accounting for 31% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector. The top three commodities falling were butadiene (22.76%), propane (21.45%) and hydrogen peroxide (18.21%). The average increase and decrease in February was – 2.53%, 0.02% higher than that in January, and the number and decline of product decline in February increased.
Public events in February affected all aspects of production, transportation and demand in the bulk chemical market. However, under the overall trend of the chemical industry market, there are also several brightest stars:
1、 The supply is insufficient, and the performance of fluorine chemical raw materials is the most outstanding.
In February, the fluorine chemical industry rose 2.81%. Among them, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose sharply in February. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3133.33 yuan / ton, 8.05% higher than the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 5.50% higher than the same period last year. After the Festival, the operation rate of domestic fluorite plant was relatively low, the number of mines and flotation plants in the site was less, and the supply of fluorite in the site was very tight. In February, the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream rose significantly, 8.4% higher as a whole Starting low, purchasing on demand for fluorite market, and improving the delivery in fluorite yard. In the near future, the downstream units are under normal operation, the spot supply of fluorite in the site is tight, and the downstream of the terminal is purchased on demand, resulting in higher market price. At present, the automobile industry is gradually back to work, the domestic R22 supply is normal, downstream enterprises purchase on demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is rising, business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market price of fluorite may remain high.
2、 Seasonal demand, fertilizer sector deserves attention.
In February, the urea market fell first and then rose. Most of the fertilizer enterprises started production in the first ten days. Due to the transportation difficulties, the inventory backlog was serious, resulting in the limited production of the manufacturers. With the increase of agricultural demand, the increase of demand stimulates the urea manufacturers to make higher offers, and the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises gradually increases, the plate plant also gradually starts, and the demand is gradually warming up. With the increase of the demand of terminal farmers, the whole fertilizer industry chain from urea is gradually warming up, and the trading volume is increasing.
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3、 Global crude oil demand worries have increased, petrochemical industry chain has been hit, and overall breadth has declined.
Social and public events continue to spread around the world, and market worries about global crude oil demand increase. In late February, international crude oil continued to fall, WTI (February 28) WTI 44.76 fell $2.33/barrel; Brent 50.52 fell $1.66/barrel. China’s SC crude oil futures fell 12.2 yuan to 357.2 yuan / barrel in 2004. International crude oil continued to decline, resulting in weak cost support for downstream petrochemical products, and the petrochemical industry chain was hit, with most of the industry chains in green.
In February 2020, there are 0 rising commodities and 11 falling commodities in the list of propylene industry price rise and fall. The whole industrial chain has been severely damaged, with a wide fall and 0 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities falling were epichlorohydrin (- 14.29%), acrylic acid (- 10.04%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 9.39%). The average increase and decrease in February was – 6.97%.
In February 2020, there are 0 rising commodities, 5 falling commodities, and 1 rising commodity. The main commodities falling were styrene butadiene rubber (- 12.94%), styrene (- 7.37%) and pure benzene (- 6.76%). The average rise and fall in February was – 5.73%.
In February 2020, there are 0 rising commodities, 8 falling commodities and 0 rising and falling commodities in the price list of phenol ketone industry. The main commodities falling were acetone (- 8.00%), pure benzene (- 6.76%) and butanone (- 5.75%). In February, the average rise and fall was – 4.9%.
To sum up, after six consecutive trading days of decline in crude oil, stimulated by the favorable policies and production reduction, the first day of bottom reading rebound of crude oil on the 3rd, and the impact on petrochemical products will take a long time to be transmitted to the whole industrial chain, but the impact of the spread of global events on crude oil can not be ignored, and the worry of demand reduction may continue. Although the short-term good will stimulate the market, it will pull the terminal It still needs to digest time; Zhao Tingting, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that in the short term, the impact of the event has developed into a global focus, and the impact on the bulk chemicals is the supply and demand ends. Under the double impact of the international and domestic weakness, and the lack of energy cost support, the overall recovery in March is not promising, but the decline will be tightened, and the chemicals market biased towards the end will gradually recover The seasonal demand drives the fertilizer sector to continue to warm up, and the demand for APIs and plastic resins may take the lead.
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