1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market continued to wait and see. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 28, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9680 yuan / ton, down 1.18% month on month, up 2.84% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market was lower this week. Due to the inventory pressure and the continuous sluggish downstream demand, and the shortage of raw materials in some factories, some BDO factories cut the load again, resulting in the market start-up to about 51.6%. At present, the commencement of downstream industries is on the low side, especially the main downstream PBT industry, which is maintained at about 40%, with weak consumption capacity and weak short-term demand for replenishment. Although the manufacturer has the mentality of shipping, the downstream consumption transmission is limited, the actual single transaction is limited, the listing is not strong for the time being, and the low price transaction in the market is heard. At present, the supplier is seeking stability, while the demand is more bearish, and the supply and demand continue to play the game.

In terms of equipment, this week, Heci shut down due to air separation unit failure on February 17, and raised to 80% after restart on February 23; Kaixiang load reached 50%; Meike phase III shut down, and phase I and phase II units operated stably; Tianye phase I 30000 ton units operated normally, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; the current load of Dongyuan is 30%; the first phase of Tunhe river is shut down, the second phase is 5-6%; the load of Shaanxi chemical industry is 60%; the load of new industry is reduced to 30%; the load of Guotai is heard to be 6-7%; the black cat is heard to stop. The overall market operating rate this week is around 51.6%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, the market of methanol and methanol is on the rise as a whole. With the evacuation of high-speed checkpoints in various regions, demand and traffic capacity have been restored, and the overall trading atmosphere is good. This week, the main trade volume in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan / ton to 1600-1650 yuan / ton ex factory cash, mainly for olefins. A large number of factories in Guanzhong area stock out, the main transaction rose to 1650-1700 yuan / ton of ex factory cash, Baoji Changqing recovered to full load production, Xianyang chemical week in the middle of the stop, the current load. The main price in Xinjiang has risen to 1100-1130 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, and most of the goods are sent to Ningxia. In Qinghai Province, Zhonghao and Guilu continued their maintenance. The gas supply of the plant is in the negotiation stage. The restart time of the plant is expected to be postponed to the middle of March.

Calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide Market as a whole shows a downward trend, but the purchase price has declined by a large margin, and the decline this week is also different due to the different increase in the early stage. The overall reduction is 50-150 yuan / ton. However, the factory price is more stable, and the price is more stable and less dynamic, with the decline of 50 yuan / ton for some enterprises. Due to the recent weakness of PVC price, high inventory, low start-up of downstream products, it is difficult to support the cost of calcium carbide, and it is difficult to improve the demand of PVC in recent days. It is expected that, driven by the lower purchase price, the factory price will be difficult to maintain stability, and the key will still be lowered in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Due to high inventory this week, the on-site construction decreased again. Although the main factory announced the listing price in March, the terminal resumed work slowly, the overall downstream load continued to be low, the demand was difficult to rise, the inquiry atmosphere was light, the actual single delivery was even less, and the new price guidance was not strong. The current inventory of BDO is estimated to be about 90000 tons, and the consumption still needs time. At present, the supply side is stable in the market, and the downstream is bearish, etc. the mentality is different, and the supply and demand game continues. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will run in a light way. In the long term, the risk of a downturn will not be ruled out, and specific attention will be paid to the downstream resumption of work and the actual transaction.