1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has fluctuated this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus on Monday was 22726.67 yuan/ton, and on Thursday it was 22660 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is still good, with manufacturers mainly issuing early orders and tight spot prices. Yellow phosphorus enterprises are mainly raising prices. The downstream inquiry situation is relatively positive, with high-end prices lowered and low-end prices adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, and the upstream and downstream continue to remain deadlocked. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the market price of phosphate ore is temporarily stable this week. The reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1048 yuan/ton. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the pace of phosphate ore shipments in some areas is clear. The mentality of the industry is good. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate in a stable and minor manner, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, the coke market has been operating weakly this week. After the first round of price hikes and reductions were implemented, the price of coking coal continued to fall, and the profits of coking enterprises are still acceptable. Currently, the construction is active, and the overall supply of coke is stable. Downstream demand for coke replenishment is maintained. The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Inner Mongolia’s Wuhai coke market is 1600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke is between 1650-1700 yuan/ton, and it is currently operating steadily.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid is rising. The average price of domestic hot process phosphoric acid market on Monday was 6570 yuan/ton, and on Thursday it was 6620 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.76%. The phosphoric acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that the current market for raw material yellow phosphorus is still good, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors mainly observing.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the current trading situation on the yellow phosphorus market is still acceptable. The upstream phosphate ore market prices are temporarily stable, while downstream phosphate prices have slightly increased. The overall support for upstream and downstream is good. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will remain stable and operate steadily in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased recently (5.13-5.22). On May 21st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7670 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% from 7460 yuan/ton on May 13th.

International crude oil is weakly volatile, and the cost support for mixed xylene is weak

Recently (5.13-5.22), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of May 21st, the settlement of WTI07 contract is 78.66 USD/barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $82.88 per barrel. The narrow consolidation of Asian mixed xylene prices continues to support the domestic market, with Asian isomeric grade xylene prices ranging from $949 to $950 per ton as of May 21.

Mixed xylene port destocking and stagnant inventory still facing pressure

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port is still under pressure. It is understood that as of May 16th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 55000 tons, which is unchanged from the first half of May.

The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak

Due to maintenance of some devices, the domestic PX production has slightly decreased, and as of May 21st, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 75%. It is understood that Weilian Chemical has recently shut down 2 million tons of PX for maintenance, with a planned maintenance period of around 40 days. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 21, the closing price in the Asian region is 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the market for naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly increased, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of May 16th, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 690%.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that in the short term, the international crude oil range will consolidate, and the cost support for mixed xylene will weaken; The decline in downstream PX production has weakened support for mixed xylene. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to experience a slight upward trend in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 21st, the average market price of vinyl acetate was 6537 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

In terms of cost

Calcium carbide: Recently, the domestic price of calcium carbide has remained stable. On May 21st, the price of calcium carbide was 2833 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week. Recently, there has been an increase in equipment maintenance for calcium carbide enterprises, resulting in a significant contraction in supply. There has been no significant change in downstream demand, and the pace of demand has remained stable. The calcium carbide market has remained stable.

Acetic acid: Domestic acetic acid prices have fallen this week. On May 21st, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, and on May 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41% from last week. The continuous decline in inventory of acetic acid enterprises in the early stage, coupled with factors such as factory equipment failures and load reduction, has pushed up the price of acetic acid. The overall trading atmosphere in the later stage of the market showed a slight decline, with limited follow-up efforts. The downstream purchasing atmosphere was not good, and the regional quotations were loose, resulting in a decrease in the price of acetic acid.

In terms of demand

The demand for EVA in the domestic market is weak, and the trading atmosphere on the market is average. The PVC futures market is relatively strong, and the mainstream transaction prices in the spot market are rising, with positive macro news.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, there is no positive support for the fundamentals, as downstream users purchase on demand and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders. It is expected that the market for vinyl acetate will remain stagnant in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose this week (5.13-5.20), with an average market price of 259810 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 78810 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 7.31%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply and demand: The situation of tight supply at the mining end still exists, and currently, smelting enterprises in the main production areas are maintaining normal production. The overall domestic supply is relatively stable, and the overall performance of the supply side is relatively stable. In terms of demand, with the rise of tin prices, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement in the market is relatively low. Currently, it still maintains a basic demand for replenishment, and the overall market trading performance is average. However, solder companies have been steadily improving in recent times, and future demand expectations are still acceptable. Overall, the supply is expected to be stable and the demand is expected to improve.

Overall, the macro level has performed well recently, with the nonferrous metal market generally recovering. Tin is more susceptible to macro level influences, and its recent trend is relatively strong. But as tin prices do not count as rising, high prices have suppressed actual downstream demand. Currently, downstream procurement intentions are more wait-and-see, and the overall situation remains to replenish inventory as needed. Driven by macro positive factors, there is room for upward movement in the tin market, but the downstream is more cautious and expected to maintain stable, medium, and strong operations in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic polyester filament prices remained stable this week (May 13-17), with increased cost drivers. However, downstream purchasing attitudes were cautious. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factory POY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offers a price range of 7450-7650 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) offers a price range of 9000-9200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) offers a price range of 8150-8000 yuan/ton.

In the future, the cost side is still favorable, and international crude oil futures have bottomed out and stabilized. As of May 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.23 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.27 per barrel. The instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. In addition, the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand, and the decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories will also provide support for oil prices. It is unlikely that the oil market will continue to decline.

In the PTA market, the maintenance plan for domestic PTA devices has been basically implemented, and PTA production has decreased. In addition, downstream polyester factories have stable demand, and the overall performance of the fundamentals is still good, which has helped to slightly rebound PTA prices. As of May 17th, the average market price in East China was 5858 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% from the beginning of the week. Domestic PTA plants have been undergoing maintenance one after another, and the industry’s operating rate has decreased to around 73%. In the future, the 4.6 million ton PTA plant may restart next week, and there are currently no plans for other large-scale PTA plant maintenance or restart in the short term. After the maintenance and restart of the PTA device are gradually completed, it will drive the slow recovery of PTA supply, and the supply of goods will be relatively loose.

Under the weakening demand during the off-season, polyester factories have eased inventory pressure by reducing production passively and proactively. Recently, mainstream polyester factories have announced production reduction plans, but there are doubts about the implementation of polyester production reduction. The seasonal decline in terminal demand is expected, and the current downstream weaving machine operating rate is stable at around 71%. With the weakening of the textile market and the accumulation of factory inventory, the expectation for the future market is poor. In the short term, it may mainly consume its own stock, and the purchasing mentality is cautious.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that it is difficult to see a significant increase in downstream demand in the short term, and the fundamentals are not optimistic. However, due to increased support for raw material costs and the impact of production reduction plans by polyester factories, it is expected that the price of polyester filament may slightly increase.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 16th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4700 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price was mainly weak compared to the same period last week, with a slight decrease in price. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF is mainly operating in a narrow and weak range, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700-4800 yuan/ton. Manufacturers are actively shipping, logistics are smooth, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the cost side of DMF is slightly supported, and it will maintain a stable, medium, and strong operation in the near future. Downstream enterprises need to purchase and operate.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain its current trend, with mainstream prices remaining at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

Analysis: On May 15th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.06%. The main reason is that some equipment in the northern main production area has been repaired due to malfunctions, and the contraction of the supply surface has brought benefits. On Wednesday, major factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei and Henan provinces generally raised prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation, and dealer quotes have followed suit. Downstream urea companies are gradually shutting down, and prices are linked upwards. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3100-3300 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The shutdown of liquid ammonia enterprises in the north will continue for a period of time due to malfunctions, and the tense supply and demand atmosphere will not change. In the later stage, it may form support for the surrounding areas. Ammonia enterprises will mainly raise prices and chase up prices. In the short term, the ammonia market is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work by ammonia enterprises in the later stage.

The performance of the domestic ethyl acrylate market in this cycle (5.7-5.14) has been relatively stagnant. As we enter mid May, market quotations have slightly declined, and bearish factors on the market remain unchanged. The ethyl acrylate market is slightly weak. As of May 14th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9362.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.13% compared to the beginning of this month (9375.00 yuan/ton).

The domestic market price of ethyl acrylate has not decreased, with a minimum value of 8600 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the recovery of market demand is slow, and on the other hand, there is insufficient supply support. Recently, the price of ethyl acrylate in China has experienced a narrow decline, showing a weak consolidation trend. The main reason is that the price has fallen to a low level, and intermediaries tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude to consider cost reasons.

Supply side:

In this cycle, the domestic market price of n-butanol remained stable with a strong trend. The ex factory price in Shandong was 7900-7950 yuan/ton, and the production of n-butanol in the market slightly declined. In addition, factory inventory remained low, leading to a tightening of spot supply in the market. The overall downstream production was stable, with primary demand procurement and active low price transactions in the market. It is expected that the domestic price of n-butanol will shift towards high-end operation next week.

The range of raw material acrylic acid market has been sorted and operated. As of May 13th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The cost pressure on acrylic acid is still ongoing. Recently, production equipment has been shut down for maintenance, providing some support for the market. Some large factories have raised their listed prices, boosting bullish confidence among businesses. Holders are reluctant to sell at high prices, while downstream markets are cautious and cautious. In the short term, the market may fluctuate and consolidate.

Demand side:

In recent times, the acrylic resin market has continued to operate weakly, with overcapacity leading to market supply exceeding market demand, which still has a negative impact on prices. However, raw material prices have continued to fluctuate at low levels, with weak and stable cost support. The decline in prices supported by costs has contracted. It is expected that the weak domestic acrylic resin market will continue in the short term, with prices mainly consolidating at low levels.

In summary, it is difficult to find favorable demand for domestic ethyl acrylate production enterprises, and market players still have a bearish attitude towards the future. Analysts from Business Society predict that there may be a slight downward trend in the domestic ethyl acrylate market in the short term, but in the long run, the price increase space is still limited.

From May 1st to May 10th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China rose, with prices this week at 103500 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.02%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on the rise recently.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ April 29th/ May 11th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 14450./15550./+1100

Overseas markets: Since mid April, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has continued to rise. As of May 11th, the quotation was at $15550/ton, and after the holiday, it rose by $1100/ton. The external market price continues to rise, driving up the domestic market atmosphere. Currently, the spot market has a strong bullish atmosphere.

This week, the antimony ingot market has seen a broad increase, while the European antimony ingot market has continued to rise, driving an improvement in the domestic market atmosphere. Smelters have strengthened their reluctance to sell, leading to a continuous increase in factory prices. Downstream customers have actively entered the market for inquiries. Currently, it is difficult to find low-priced goods, and the tight supply has boosted the strong price support mentality of smelting enterprises. Downstream enterprises actively entered the market for inquiries, driven by improved demand, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise this week. In the future, the supply and demand of antimony ingots in China are currently tight, and downstream demand is expected to be strong. Supported by multiple positive factors, it is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

Antimony oxide: This week, the antimony oxide market continued to follow the rise of antimony ingots, with an increase range of 3000-4000 yuan/ton during the cycle. At present, it is difficult to find low-priced raw materials in the market, and downstream enterprises are actively entering the market to inquire about goods and replenish inventory. Due to the market’s reluctance to sell, it is currently difficult to find low-priced sources of goods. Under the dominant influence of the trade in policy, the expected amount of antimony used in flame retardants is improving. At present, it is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and the industrial chain market is operating with a strong bias.

Industry data:

On May 10th, the base metal index was 1315 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 18.63% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 104.83% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 10th, the non-ferrous index was 1212 points, an increase of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 21.20% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 99.67% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)..

According to price monitoring, in the 19th week of 2024 (5.6-5.10), there were a total of 15 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top three commodities with the highest increase were silver (4.61%), antimony (3.50%), and aluminum oxide (3.33%). There are three products that have experienced a month on month decline, with the top three products experiencing a decline being titanium concentrate (-1.30%), copper (-1.17%), and nickel (-0.43%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.94%.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 29th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42300 yuan/ton. After the holiday in May, the lithium iron phosphate market has mainly maintained stable operation, with prices maintaining stable operation and no significant fluctuations. Upstream iron phosphate prices have remained stable, while lithium carbonate prices have remained stable with a moderate to strong trend and limited increase. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average. Currently, the supply and demand balance of the lithium iron phosphate market is the main trend.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: After the May Day holiday, the upstream lithium carbonate price has remained stable with a strong trend, inventory has remained high, downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable, and the upstream iron phosphate price will remain stable with a small range of price fluctuations. It is expected that the current price trend will remain the main trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, from the perspective of market supply and demand, the current market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is insufficient, and upstream lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices lack upward momentum, making it difficult to boost the price of lithium iron phosphate. It is expected that in the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate will remain around 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate will remain around 42300 yuan/ton.