According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 9, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7550 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7733 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%.

According to the price trend chart of propylene glycol in Shengyishe from the beginning of the year to the present, it can be seen that the domestic propylene glycol market has been in a downward trend since the beginning of the year. In late February, the propylene glycol market was briefly supported by tight supply, and then rapidly declined and continued to decline. In April, the overall propylene glycol market continued to decline weakly, and the focus of the propylene glycol market continued to decline. As of May 9th, the price of propylene glycol in the market had reached its lowest level for the year 2024.

From the annual comparison chart of propylene glycol, it can be seen that the current market price of propylene glycol has dropped to a low level in nearly four years.

Analysis of the influencing factors of the decline in the propylene glycol market in April:

In April, downstream demand for propylene glycol in China was weak, and the inquiry atmosphere in the propylene glycol market was poor, with few new transactions. Downstream users mostly restocked small orders that were just needed. In the early stage of May Day Labor Day, the propylene glycol market did not experience effective pre holiday stocking, and the overall stocking atmosphere remained weak. The overall supply and demand transmission of propylene glycol was slow, and on-site inventory was relatively loose. Therefore, insufficient demand and supply pressure were the main reasons for the gradual decline of the propylene glycol market.

Can the propylene glycol market rise against the trend in May?

Firstly, let’s take a look at the specific performance of the domestic propylene glycol market in the first week after the return of Labor Day. From the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, it can be seen that after the holiday, the performance of the domestic propylene glycol market is still weak, and the center of gravity of the propylene glycol market continues to dip downwards. The overall trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. On May 9th, the price of propylene glycol in the market was around 7500-7600 yuan/ton, with a post holiday decline of 1.31%.

Fundamental analysis:

At present, there has been no significant improvement in downstream demand in the propylene glycol market, and the overall downstream demand still needs to be restored. In terms of supply, the overall shipment of propylene glycol in the current market is still under pressure, and the supply-demand game on the market is still ongoing. In terms of cost, the market for methanol and epoxy propane in the raw material end is operating at a high level, which brings no less cost pressure to propylene glycol. Propylene glycol factories are not willing to continue to lower prices under cost pressure, but the weak demand side cannot be ignored. Therefore, the current propylene glycol market is in a stalemate game between supply, demand, and cost, and the propylene glycol market will mostly operate weakly in May.

Technical analysis: Market prices are at a low level within the year, and there is still downside risk in May

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the current market price of propylene glycol is at a low point in one year, a low point in two years, and a low point in three years.

From the graph, it can be seen that since March 9, 2023, the propylene glycol 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. The current two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. According to calculations, the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 30 day moving average above the 7-day moving average) in the next 7 days is not high.

In summary, data analysts from Business Society believe that as we enter May, the overall supply-demand contradiction in the domestic propylene glycol market has not been effectively improved, and the market boost on both the supply and demand sides is insufficient. Currently, there is no obvious positive support in the propylene glycol market. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be some downward risk in the propylene glycol market in May, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 30, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8466 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 8033 yuan/ton), the price increased by 433 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.39%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the overall market situation of butanone in China showed a continuous upward trend. In early April, the butanone market returned to calm after a slight fluctuation. In the latter half of the year, the market for butanone saw a significant increase, and market prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. By the end of April, the high price of butanone in the domestic market had risen to around 8700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Rise of Butanone Market in April

In terms of cost: In April, the overall market situation for carbon tetrachloride after the ether end of butanone raw material continued to operate at a high level, and the support for butanone in terms of cost has always been strong.

In terms of supply: In April, some domestic butanone factories executed pre orders and mainly shipped pre order goods. Therefore, the overall supply pressure in butanone factories was relatively small, and spot circulation in some regions was tight. The supply side supported the continuous increase of butanone market prices.

In terms of demand: In April, the overall terminal demand in the butanone field improved. In the first ten days, downstream purchases of butanone were mainly for rigid needs. In the second ten days, the butanone market welcomed small-scale pre holiday stocking, and the overall demand support for butanone improved.

Market analysis of butanone

At present, the atmosphere in the butanone market is relatively mild. As the weather gets warmer, the demand in the terminal market will continue to be released. The butanone industry has a good mentality, and the butanone data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

After the holiday, the bisphenol A market showed some calmness, and the market offer on the first trading day was not clear. The trading parties had a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with the main factories maintaining stable quotes and Lihua Yiwei Yuan continuing to list prices at 9600 yuan/ton. In terms of the market, negotiations in North China were close to 9600 yuan/ton, while negotiations in East China were between 9800-10000 yuan/ton. Short term fluctuations in the bisphenol A market were limited.

Cost support has weakened, and the domestic phenol market has limited fluctuations after the holiday. Some regions have negotiated a slight decline, with prices in the East China region at 7950-8000 yuan/ton. However, due to a slight decrease in post holiday port inventory, holders have little intention of lowering prices. However, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among buyers, and trading in the phenol market after the holiday is limited. The mainstream market for acetone in China has slightly declined, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The negotiations in the East China region are between 8150-8200 yuan/ton, while those in the South China region are at 8300 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, and there is insufficient trading volume after the holiday.

The downstream epoxy resin market operates quietly, the market lacks information guidance, and the factory’s listed price remains stable. The downstream just needs to follow up, and there is little turnover. The mainstream negotiations of East China liquid resin and Mount Huangshan solid resin are both 12600-12900 yuan/ton. The downstream PC market is experiencing a weak downturn, with some regions experiencing a decrease of around 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The negotiated price for injection grade low-end materials in East China ranges from 14500 to 16500 yuan/ton. The spot market is operating weakly, and short-term business confidence is clearly lacking.

During the holiday, crude oil continued to decline, and the bisphenol A industry chain operated weakly in its first trading day. At present, there is not much fluctuation in the supply of bisphenol A, and downstream co production lines mainly digest inventory or contracts. There is currently a lack of positive support in the upstream and downstream. In the short term, we will pay attention to the trend of bisphenol A factories, and Business Society expects the bisphenol A market to adjust and operate within a certain range.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite remained stable in April. On April 30th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7550 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the initial price of 7550 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

In April, the domestic ice crystal market remained stable and cautious, with major ice crystal enterprises experiencing significant fluctuations in their quotations. The strong rise in raw material prices in April has increased the cost pressure on the cryolite market. Most companies have offered firm and stable prices, while some companies have been affected by demand, resulting in poor factory shipments and a slight decrease in cryolite prices. Although upstream prices continue to rise, due to strong resistance towards high priced ice crystals in the downstream market and limited trading, the downstream market is mostly bearish, suppressing the rise in ice crystal prices. Therefore, most ice crystal manufacturers remain stable in their quotations despite strong raw material prices.

The upstream fluorite market rose strongly in April. As of April 30th, the average price of fluorite was 3675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.38% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3487.50 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with upstream mining being tight and backward mines continuing to be phased out. In terms of new mines, the progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite market is slow. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and some mines have undergone safety hazard inspections. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of goods on site is tight, resulting in a continuous increase in fluorite prices.

Market forecast: In the near future, the price of ice crystal raw materials has been strong and rising, and the cost of ice crystal is under great pressure. The market mentality has a positive impact, and downstream demand is average. Ice crystal prices are relatively resistant, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively light. However, facing the continuous rise of upstream prices, ice crystal enterprises may face pressure to increase. It is expected that the ice crystal market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage, and prices may slightly rise. In the future, attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market in April first sorted out and then rose, with the increase in spot prices of various brands concentrated in the latter half of the year. As of April 30th, the benchmark price for the mixed PC of Shengyishe was around 16533.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of+2.48% compared to April 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above figure that the price of bisphenol A increased significantly in April. Since the beginning of the month, the shutdown and maintenance of domestic bisphenol A plants have increased, and the current industry operating rate is only around 60%, dropping to a new low in half a year. There are still some plants with maintenance plans in May. Meanwhile, in the second half of the month, there was a significant increase in phenol and acetone, and the cost support for bisphenol A enterprises was evident. However, from a downstream perspective, the transfer intensity is average, and it is expected that the short-term bisphenol A market will fluctuate at high levels, maintaining strong support for PC spot prices.

In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of domestic PC remained stable in April, with an industry average operating rate of over 77%. At the end of the month, two maintenance plans were delayed, and some manufacturers had the possibility of resuming work. In addition, the production of Hengli’s new equipment increased on-site supply, resulting in an overall abundant supply of goods and a loosening trend in PC supply side support.

In terms of demand: PC consumption within the month will continue to follow the previous weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for just in need. Downstream enterprises have poor stocking enthusiasm, with no increase in pre holiday stocking and weak demand. Buyers have some resistance to high priced sources, and the demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

After the consolidation of the PC market in April, it rose. Upstream bisphenol A rose, boosting the cost side of PC. The load of domestic polymerization plants remained stable after a decline. The demand side consumption lags behind, and the on-site trading is weak. It is expected that the PC market will mainly consolidate and operate after the holiday.

In April, the price of metallic silicon slightly decreased and showed a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.36% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 15.37% from the same period last year. In April, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of stable supply and reduced demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and downstream production loss pressure gradually fed back to upstream. Under the bearish supply and demand side, the spot price of metal silicon weakened.

Supply side

According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 25th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 301, with an overall start-up rate of 40.4%, an increase of 12 compared to last week and a decrease of 3 compared to last month. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased, mainly driven by maintenance and resumption of production by manufacturers in the northwest, while other regions saw a mutual increase and decrease.

In terms of inventory, as of April 26th, industrial silicon inventory slightly decreased last week, with social inventory of 364000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week and a decrease of 1000 tons from last month; This week, the inventory of industrial silicon factories was 88000 tons, which is basically the same as last week. Factory inventory: The trading situation in the spot market during the week was average, with some orders from silicon factories being delivered one after another, while most silicon factory inventory showed a slight increase.

Demand side

In April, domestic polycrystalline silicon saw a slight decline. In April, polycrystalline silicon enterprises maintained normal production, but the price of polycrystalline silicon continued to decline, and silicon factories were in a situation of reducing production and destocking. At present, the inventory of polycrystalline silicon enterprises continues to increase, and under the downward trend of prices, the losses of polycrystalline silicon enterprises have further expanded, and pressure has been continuously exerted on the procurement of raw material silicon powder.

In April, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a slight downward trend. In the early stage, downstream stocking was limited, and downstream purchasing willingness increased under low prices. The pressure of excess monomer factories is expected to ease. Recently, there has been a slight increase in the production of organic silicon enterprises, which has led to an increase in industrial silicon consumption. However, it is also important to note that the overall organic silicon industry is still in a loss making state, and the support for industrial silicon prices is limited. We will continue to monitor the downstream delivery of organic silicon in the future.

The price of aluminum alloy slightly decreased in April. Aluminum alloy enterprises have been operating steadily recently, but the industrial silicon market is weakening, so they are cautious in purchasing industrial silicon raw materials and prioritize on-demand procurement.

Future Market Forecast

On the supply side, there was not much change in supply in April, and silicon factories basically maintained their current production pace. However, as silicon prices continued to decline, silicon factory production actively weakened, and there is an expectation of a reduction in supply in May; In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are currently cautious in their procurement operations due to the continuous decline in industrial silicon prices, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At present, the downstream of industrial silicon still faces significant pressure, with polycrystalline silicon continuously falling in price and the entire industry facing loss pressure. Organic silicon is currently at the bottom, and the market has not reversed. Downstream production pressure is negatively feedback to industrial silicon. Overall, the supply and demand side of the metal silicon market may turn into a weak supply-demand situation in May, with the fundamentals bearish on silicon prices. If there is no positive macro news to stimulate and downstream demand does not improve, it is expected that silicon prices will first decline and then stabilize or operate weakly in May.

This week (April 22-28, 2024), the adhesive short fiber market remained stable. The market for raw material dissolution slurry is generally stable, while the market for auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid has experienced a narrow decline. The cost support for viscose short fibers is weak and stable. From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent shutdown and maintenance plans of adhesive short fiber manufacturers have been concentrated, resulting in a decrease in the supply of adhesive short fiber in the market. The inventory of various manufacturers is still at a low level, and there is some positive support on the supply side; The downstream cotton yarn market has maintained a high level of production, with some models experiencing shortages, but the overall market is still mainly focused on purchasing in demand, with no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side. Overall, the upstream raw material prices are weak and stable, while the cost support is weak. Downstream yarn factories mainly consume inventory, and the release of new orders on site is limited. Viscose short fiber manufacturers mainly execute shipments. The overall market sales speed is stable, and the market prices of viscose short fibers are consolidating horizontally.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of viscose short fibers remained weak and stable this week (April 22-28, 2024). As of March 28th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13240 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of supply: This week (April 22-28, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained around 74.31%, with a narrow decrease in production compared to last week. During the week, the maintenance facilities for adhesive short fibers in Jiangxi region were gradually restarted, while some adhesive short fiber facilities in Fujian region were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in overall market supply.

In terms of demand: downstream people mainly execute orders in the cotton yarn market, with little price change. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, with multi-dimensional support and on-demand procurement. Currently, the new round of signing has ended, and the operators have entered a period of inventory consumption.

In terms of cost: This week (April 22-28, 2024), the market price of raw material dissolution slurry remained stable, while the market prices of auxiliary material liquid alkali and sulfuric acid slightly decreased. The cost center shifted downwards, and the average production cost of viscose short fibers slightly decreased.

Downstream cotton yarn market

This week (April 22-28, 2024), downstream cotton yarn saw weak consolidation, with the market mainly executing orders, overall prices remained stable, overall shipments average, inventory basically maintained, demand side performance was weak, downstream demand did not show a significant improvement, and actual transactions on the market were limited. As of April 28th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17400 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Future Market Forecast:

The upstream raw material market is not volatile, and the inventory of various manufacturers is not high. There is not much change in the supply side in the short term. Downstream enterprises have average purchasing power, and they mainly deliver early orders. The overall market sales speed may continue to be stable. Business Society analysts predict that the market for viscose short fibers will remain stable in the short term, with market prices generally stable. The market for human cotton yarn will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and the price of viscose short fibers is expected to be between 13000-13300 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of bromine has risen this week. On April 22, the market average price was 19000 yuan/ton, and on April 24, the market average price was 19600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.16% and a decrease of 23.74% compared to the same period last year. On April 24th, the bromine commodity index was 68.77, an increase of 0.7 points from yesterday, a decrease of 71.95% from the highest point of 245.18 points in the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 16.72% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine has risen this week, with mainstream quotes in the Shandong market ranging from 18500 to 20500 yuan/ton, indicating an upward trend in market prices. The supply of bromine manufacturers is now stable, and downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries are still mainly purchased on demand in the near future. The recent supply of imported bromine is average, but it still benefits domestic bromine manufacturers, causing bromine prices to rise. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1223.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On April 25th, the average market price was 1216.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%, an increase of 68.2% compared to the same period last year. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will rise in the near future, and upstream sulfur prices will remain stable. With the rise in bromine prices, downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry are mainly purchased on demand in the near future, with moderate replenishment. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices will fluctuate in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 24th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton. On April 1st, the average market price of resorcinol was 44500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of the month.

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has fluctuated and increased this month. On April 23rd, the price of pure benzene was 8750 yuan/ton. On April 1st, the price of pure benzene was 8488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 18.07% from the same period last year. In the first half of April, the overall increase in pure benzene in China was good. Affected by the continuous rise in crude oil, the cost support for pure benzene is strong. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In the second half of the month, due to insufficient support from pure benzene, prices may be lowered.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid fell first and then rose this month. On April 24th, the price of nitric acid was 1820 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, it was 1750 yuan/ton. The price increased by 4% compared to the beginning of the month and decreased by 28.15% compared to the same period last year. At present, the market supply and demand are stable, and transactions are mainly light. Market transactions are still lower than expected, and manufacturers mainly rely on orders for their shipments.

Isophenylenediamine: On April 24th, the average market price of meta phenylenediamine was 36000 yuan/ton. On April 1st, the average market price of meta phenylenediamine was 38233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.84% from the beginning of last month. Cost demand game, the price of meta phenylenediamine has fallen.

After a slight increase this month, resorcinol remained stable and market trading remained stable. The downstream rubber industry was cautious in purchasing, and there was no significant increase in demand for dyes and pesticide intermediates in the market. It is expected that the price of resorcinol will remain stable.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 23, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1042 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%. Compared with the reference price of 1062 yuan/ton for phosphate ore on the 4th and 1st, the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first half of April, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a weak downward trend. Entering this week, the phosphate ore market continued to experience a slight bearish decline, with the market’s focus slightly downward. This week, some mining companies in areas with higher prices in the early stage have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by about 20 yuan/ton. At present, the difference between high and low prices in phosphate rock yards has been reduced. As of April 23rd, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is based on around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is relatively light, and the main factor affecting the weak operation of the phosphate ore market is the general boost provided by downstream demand. The weak operation of the downstream market of phosphate ore provides weak support for raw materials from bottom to top. In addition, the recovery performance of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market is slow, and the overall effective support in the phosphate ore field is insufficient.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is quiet. Currently, the overall supply tension in the phosphate ore market has eased, and the game between supply and demand is gradually emerging. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.