According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 25th to December 2nd, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9675 yuan/ton to 9725 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.52% during the cycle. This week, the domestic butadiene market has slightly rebounded. At the beginning of last week, the arrival situation in the East China region was not good, and the supply expectations in the spot market were tight. Encouraged by this news, the spot market quotations generally rose. However, downstream demand remains weak, with poor purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market. Overall, the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market rose first and then stabilized during the week, while Sinopec still implemented a price of 9800 yuan/ton. As of November 29th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is 9850 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market in November was mainly volatile, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month, and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market situation did not change much. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 9800 yuan/ton as of the 28th, a cumulative decrease of 2600 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 12400 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is operating stably, and there are currently no plans to export goods today. Therefore, quotations are temporarily suspended.

The 30000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical is operating normally. Today, 400 tons were exported, with a bid price of 9200 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 9250 yuan/ton.

The 200000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin is operating stably, with normal export supply of 112 tons. The bidding bottom price is 9210 yuan/ton, and the transaction is 9320 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.12% from 15580 yuan/ton at the beginning of November. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, but overall it remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Within the month, the supply price of butadiene rubber has gradually decreased. As of November 29th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yangtze, Daqing, and Sichuan in East China is between 13150 and 13650 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak. Port cargo sources have continued to accumulate recently, and new facilities in Shandong have been put into operation. The market expects loose supply in the future, and the supply side is bearish. In terms of demand, the overall downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, providing essential support for the butadiene market. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market maintained a volatile downward trend in November. As of November 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4741 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24% from the beginning of the month.

Multiple PTA units have increased their load within the month, with ample supply in the spot market and lackluster downstream demand. PTA is mainly driven by rigid demand. The fluctuating geopolitical situation and wide fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided a certain boost to PTA costs. Under the game of weak fundamentals and cost support, PTA prices have adjusted downward overall.

Looking at the future market, PTA processing fees were still acceptable in November, but PTA factory equipment maintenance intentions were low. As of the end of the month, the industry’s operating rate had increased to around 90%. There is currently no equipment maintenance plan in December, and a new production capacity of 2.7 million tons is planned to be put into operation in East China, so there will be sufficient supply of goods in the future. In addition, due to the seasonal off-season of downstream polyester, the demand for PTA may weaken, and the supply and demand structure is still weak, making it difficult to improve in the short term. The expectation of PTA inventory accumulation in the later stage is strong.

The international oil price market was mainly volatile in November, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market remained relatively stable. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.

At present, the adjustment of crude oil prices has limited driving guidance for the PX market. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, domestic supply will continue to operate at high load and stability. The annual inspection units of Ningbo Daxie and Fujian United Power Plant will be restarted in December. However, there is currently no clear expectation of maintenance for downstream PTA units, and some units are scheduled for restart and load increase. At the same time, Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million tons of PTA new production capacity is about to be put into operation, so there are signs of a slowdown in the domestic PX supply and demand contradiction.

The downstream polyester industry has maintained a production rate of 88%, and the market has gradually entered the traditional off-season of demand. In the later stage, there is a high probability of a decline in demand, and speculation and rigid demand buying are not good. In the terminal textile market, domestic weaving sales gradually weakened in November, while foreign trade partially rebounded. As the end of the month approaches, most weaving factories have indicated a significant downturn in the market, with an outstanding order volume of around one month. A few weaving factories have stated that they have sufficient orders to meet the end of the year. Foreign trade home textile orders and simulated silk orders from the Middle East have been issued in bulk, but weaving factories generally indicate that prices are low.

Business analysts believe that under the current processing fees, there are fewer plans for PTA follow-up equipment maintenance, and the overall supply in December is relatively loose. The downstream lacks confidence in the future market, and the enthusiasm for stocking up is average, with subsequent or urgent purchases being the main focus. The overall atmosphere is weak, and there is no obvious positive driving force in the market. Against the backdrop of intensified supply-demand contradictions, the PTA price trend will still be sluggish.

The asphalt market in Shandong has risen by 15 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions have remained stable. Currently, the asphalt supply and demand markets are relatively weak. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the price in Shandong region was 3445 yuan/ton on November 28th, an increase of 0.26%.

The daily operating load of asphalt enterprises is around 30%, with a slight decrease. From the demand side, at the end of the peak season, due to the influence of cold air, seasonal shutdowns have occurred in northern regions, while some southern regions have year-end opening tasks. The terminal mainly consumes social inventory.

From the perspective of Business Society, the current operating rate is low, and social supply remains low. However, during the off-season of demand, the impact on society is relatively small, and short-term asphalt stabilization operations are necessary.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market fluctuated and rose in November, with an increase of nearly 4%. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton. On the 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.64%.

Long Short Game: November Hydrogen Peroxide Market oscillates upwards

Starting from November, the demand for terminal rigidity has been weak, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide are generally average. The supply of hydrogen peroxide is loose, and negative factors have suppressed the market. The overall quotation is 650-750 yuan/ton. Since November 11th, there has been a decrease in terminal demand, leading to a decline in manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide and negative pressure. The hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with an overall quotation of 700-720 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, terminal rigid demand rebounded, hydrogen peroxide supply tightened, and the market rebounded. The average market price rose to 760 yuan/ton, with a price increase of over 5%.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that in December, the rigid demand for terminal hydrogen peroxide is not good, and the future hydrogen peroxide market may operate weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine is running steadily. On November 26th, the average market price of bromine was around 22400 yuan/ton. On November 11th, the bromine commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 67.94% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.40% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of bromine has been running steadily, with prices in the Shandong region temporarily stable. The mainstream market price is around 22000-23000 yuan/ton, and the equipment is running smoothly with normal supply. The market trading atmosphere is calm, and in terms of demand, the main downstream flame retardant procurement enthusiasm is high. However, the overall supply-demand game price is running steadily. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices are operating steadily, with an average market price of 1637.67 yuan/ton on November 26th. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain strong. Downstream flame retardants have a high level of enthusiasm for inquiries and purchases, which has boosted the overall market trend. Downstream inquiries are also more active in the supply-demand game. Overall, it is predicted that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 25th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 12120 yuan/ton, which was basically stable compared to November 8th. Compared with November 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (11.15-11.20), the overall stable operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has been the main trend. However, due to the recent opening price drop of nearly 800 yuan compared to the beginning of the month for the main futures contracts, the actual trading center of some other grades of silicon metal in the spot market has slightly weakened. As of November 20th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.

Data analysis

In terms of production and operation: The newly built metal silicon production capacity in the northern region is steadily being put into operation, and the current metal silicon production is still in a state of high in the north and low in the south. During the month, the overall operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang remained at 85-87%. Yesterday, the operating rate remained at a high level, with most silicon enterprises mainly delivering orders and the overall inventory increase was not significant. The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Yunnan region is between 47-49%, with the main production area coming from Baoshan, Yunnan. The overall operating rate is at a relatively low level. Although Yunnan silicon enterprises have the willingness to clear inventory, they are limited by the current market situation, with low prices and overall shipping enthusiasm. The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Sichuan region is between 33-35%, maintaining this low level. Most silicon enterprises have started to reduce production and shut down their furnaces since the end of October. Some other silicon enterprises may still have plans to continue shutting down their furnaces this month. The overall operating rate and output are both at a low level.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the silicon metal market is in a weak state of supply and demand. Although the downstream demand performance is average, the overall operating rate and production are not high, so the pressure on the supply side is not significant, and the supply side is in a state of slight inventory accumulation.

Upstream aspect: Currently, the upstream raw material silica market for metallic silicon is operating steadily, with silica mines mostly shipping on a single schedule. Currently, the overall supply of silica is relatively loose, and the demand for raw material silica in the downstream metallic silicon market is relatively average. Overall trading in the silica market is relatively light. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is referred to as 360-390 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of low-grade silica ore is referred to as 260-280 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic silicon metal market is relatively quiet. With the overall expectation of on-site construction continuing to decline, the pressure on the silicon metal supply side is controllable. Although the transmission performance between supply and demand is still average, it will be able to maintain weak stability. The silicon metal data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be monitored.

Epichlorohydrin continues to rise this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (8625 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The prices of propylene and liquid chlorine at the raw material end are still supported. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6768.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: In early October, Jiangsu Haixing Chemical, a leading enterprise in epoxy chloropropane production, stopped maintenance of its 130000 tons/year propylene method epoxy chloropropane unit.

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin demand is mainly based on small orders, and the raw material side continues to rise. The cost of epoxy resin is supported, and suppliers are cautious in purchasing, resulting in low enthusiasm for inquiries.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that the cost side price support is still acceptable, with downstream rigid demand procurement as the main focus, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and cautious procurement of raw materials. In addition, leading enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may rise slightly in the short term, and more attention should still be paid to changes in market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 19th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5740.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% compared to the price of 5773.33 yuan/ton on November 11th. Due to weak downstream demand, significant inventory pressure from manufacturers, and bearish market sentiment, the ethyl acetate market is running weakly.

In mid November, the domestic price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. The rise in raw material prices in the early stage has boosted the market sentiment of ethyl ester, and manufacturers’ quotations have slightly followed suit; In the later stage, downstream demand showed weak performance, the market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the rise in raw material prices did not bring effective benefits. Manufacturers still face significant pressure to ship, and inventory has accumulated. In order to promote transactions, the main factories have continuously lowered their quotations. Under the supply-demand game, the overall weak and orderly operation of ethyl acetate.

In the future, with the continuous decrease in the price of ethyl acetate, downstream purchasing sentiment has increased, and the pressure on manufacturers has weakened. Some manufacturers have slightly increased their quotes, and the mentality of the industry is good. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to rise in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and declining recently (11.11-11.18). As of November 18th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.46% from 17184 yuan/ton on November 11th. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high and have fallen. As of November 18th, the price of Thai glue was 68.10 baht/kg, a significant decrease from 73.17 baht/kg on November 11th; As of November 18th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 17000 yuan/ton, a significant decrease from 17600 yuan/ton on November 11th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of November 10, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 415900 tons, an increase of 2900 tons compared to the previous period.

The downstream tire production is basically stable, and the demand is mainly supported by the natural rubber market’s essential needs. As of November 15th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: The current high supply prices of raw materials both domestically and internationally are expected to decline; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has slightly increased; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will experience a weak correction in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7766.67 yuan/ton. As of November 19th, the domestic cyclohexane market has been operating narrowly and weakly, with market transaction prices maintained at around 7900 yuan/ton, mainly affected by upstream and terminal factors. The cyclohexane price has dropped by 0.43% compared to the same period last week. Currently, there is sufficient spot supply of cyclohexane, and follow-up is cautious.

2、 Market analysis

Market wise: Currently, the upstream market has relatively weak support for the cyclohexane market, and the supply side of the cyclohexane market is relatively loose. The overall demand in the downstream market is poor, with a small amount of shipments. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and industry players are cautious and cautious, with low purchasing sentiment.

In terms of cost: At the beginning of last week, international crude oil and pure benzene prices fell both, and upstream prices fell, driving the cyclohexane market to continue to weaken. Currently, the pure benzene market is operating in a narrow range of fluctuations, with supply and demand in the market, and inventory is operating normally with narrow fluctuations. Northern market quotations have declined, with low prices frequently appearing. Port pickups in East China have been smooth, and overall market buying has rebounded so far.

Downstream: The downstream market for cyclohexanone continued to show a weak trend, with the overall decline slowing down at that time. Currently, the overall market is in a state of supply and demand balance, with low prices increasing and prices mainly concentrated between 8600-8700 yuan/ton. Downstream demand performance is poor, and production enterprises have weakly lowered their offers. Industry players lack information on the future market, and they are cautious in following up, showing a mentality of buying up and not buying down.

In terms of demand, downstream prices of caprolactam are mainly weak, and the industry’s supply capacity has increased. Currently, the operating rate of caprolactam can reach about 85%, and there is sufficient supply of goods. There is some pressure on inventory, and the price of caprolactam will continue to maintain a weak trend during the week. It is expected that the price will maintain the current trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, the cyclohexane supply side is relatively sufficient, downstream demand is limited, and the overall market is mainly focused on essential procurement. The mentality of the industry is still weak and the current profit situation is not optimistic. The industry lacks confidence in the future market, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with stable and weak operation as the main focus.