According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 23, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1042 yuan/ton. Compared with April 17 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%. Compared with the reference price of 1062 yuan/ton for phosphate ore on the 4th and 1st, the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first half of April, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a weak downward trend. Entering this week, the phosphate ore market continued to experience a slight bearish decline, with the market’s focus slightly downward. This week, some mining companies in areas with higher prices in the early stage have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by about 20 yuan/ton. At present, the difference between high and low prices in phosphate rock yards has been reduced. As of April 23rd, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is based on around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is relatively light, and the main factor affecting the weak operation of the phosphate ore market is the general boost provided by downstream demand. The weak operation of the downstream market of phosphate ore provides weak support for raw materials from bottom to top. In addition, the recovery performance of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market is slow, and the overall effective support in the phosphate ore field is insufficient.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is quiet. Currently, the overall supply tension in the phosphate ore market has eased, and the game between supply and demand is gradually emerging. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 15th to 22nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3705 yuan/ton to 3678 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%, an increase of 2.14% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.05%. After the increase in asphalt prices, there was a slight correction. There is a clear north-south differentiation in asphalt spot prices, and Shandong and North China regions have a strong willingness to pull up prices, driving asphalt spot prices to continue to rise. However, the performance of terminal demand in the market is average, and the decline in crude oil weakens the cost support for the asphalt market. After the rise of asphalt spot prices, there is a slight decline, and the market maintains a stable, moderate, and weak operation.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: within the same cycle, the crude oil market has declined narrowly. US crude oil inventories have increased beyond expectations, demand expectations have weakened, and conflict risk premiums have been suppressed. As of April 19th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $87.29 per barrel.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt varies slightly in different regions. The northern market mainly relies on scattered and rigid demand, while the southern region experiences rainy weather, which hinders actual demand. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close of April 22, the petroleum asphalt futures market has decreased. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 3744 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3757 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3720 yuan/ton. It closed at 3759 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 33% from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 0.88%. The trading volume was 110541 lots, and the position was 179862 lots, with a daily increase of -11368.

In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will experience a high-level correction, and the support for asphalt costs will weaken. Some refineries plan to resume production, and supply may slightly increase. There are slight differences in actual demand between regions. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

The price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 19th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.29% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7212.50 yuan/ton on April 12th. The price of crude oil continues to rise, while the price of propylene, a raw material for isobutyraldehyde, fluctuates and rises. Downstream inventory of new pentanediol is depleted, and the demand support for the cost increase of isobutyraldehyde is limited. The driving force for the price increase of isobutyraldehyde is increasing.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 19th, the price of propylene was 6932.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.58% compared to the price of 6892.60 yuan/ton on April 12th. The price of raw material crude oil continues to rise, the cost of propylene has risen, the supply of propylene is sufficient, downstream construction has increased, and the enthusiasm for propylene transactions has increased. This week, the support for propylene’s rise has increased.

Limited downstream demand support

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9933.33 yuan/ton quoted on April 12th. This week, some new pentanediol factories have seen a slight rebound in their quotations, and new pentanediol manufacturers are slowly reducing their inventory; Formaldehyde prices fluctuate and rise, while isobutyraldehyde prices fluctuate and rise. In terms of raw materials, the upward momentum of neopentyl glycol increases; Downstream demand for neopentyl glycol is weak. This week, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and there is still upward momentum.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and risen, and the cost of isobutyraldehyde has increased, providing greater support for the increase in isobutyraldehyde cost; In terms of demand, the market support for neopentyl glycol is limited, and the price of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable. In the future, cost support demand is weak, and it is expected that the price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54750.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

This week, the raw material titanium ore market is weak, and some high priced sources have lowered their prices. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe titanium concentrate was 2300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (2316.67 yuan/ton). Procurement should be based on demand, and observe more. The downstream titanium material market demand is stable, and sponge titanium shipments are normal.

According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, although raw material prices have fallen, the cost side is still under high pressure, and the market is mostly wait-and-see, purchasing on demand. The downstream titanium material market demand is stable, sponge titanium shipments are normal, and supply and demand are balanced. It is expected that the sponge titanium market will continue to operate steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of April 17, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1052 yuan/ton. Compared with April 14 (reference price of 1062 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94%. Compared to the prices on the 3rd and 1st day, it is basically the same.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a slight decline. Since April, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market has been average, with limited new orders on the market. The downstream market of phosphate ore has shown weak performance, and the overall demand side has provided weak support for the phosphate ore market. In some regions, the slightly tight supply of phosphate ore can still support mining enterprises to maintain stable quotations. However, some regions are affected by weak supply and demand, and the overall pace of phosphate ore shipments is average. Therefore, some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 20-30 yuan/ton. As of April 17th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Attached are the market prices of phosphate ore in some domestic regions (for reference only):

Product/ Region/ Taste/ Price/ Remarks

Phosphate ore/ Guizhou region/ 30 grade/ 1000-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Guangxi region/ 30 grade/ 1030-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Sichuan region/ 30 grade/ 1080-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Yunnan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation

Phosphate ore/ Hubei region/ 30 grade/ 1070-1120 yuan/ton/. Stable operation

Future analysis

At present, the overall on-site atmosphere of phosphate ore is weak, and the mentality of the industry is average. The overall purchasing activity in the downstream market is relatively low, and the market’s overall concern is gradually accumulating. The phosphate ore analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly be weak and adjust its operation. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4730 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64% compared to the same period last week, and an increase of 1.99% compared to the same period last month. Currently, the mainstream price range in the market is around 4700-4800 yuan/ton. The upstream cost side is well supported, and the downstream demand is not decreasing. The overall market transaction atmosphere is positive. The upstream methanol is relatively strong, and some enterprises have shut down their facilities, resulting in a decrease in supply, leading to a narrow price range.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: Since April, the overall shipment of upstream methanol has been good, and there has been no pressure on inventory to operate at a low level. Business owners have a positive attitude, and the bidding situation of enterprises is good. In the Guanzhong region, maintenance plans have been announced, and methanol prices are dominant. There is a shortage on the supply side, and there is a clear atmosphere of price support in the Shanxi region. The market transaction atmosphere is positive, while in the Hebei region, prices are dominant. However, the overall market demand is limited, and it is expected that the domestic methanol market will be mainly strong in the short term. In early April, the upstream liquid ammonia price showed a broad upward trend, with a price increase of more than 4% in half a month. Due to the upward trend in the prices of dual upstream products in early April, strong support was formed on the DMF cost side, and.

In terms of supply: Currently, there is not much change in the supply side, and inventory is operating at a low level without pressure. Price adjustment is the main trend, while downstream operating rates are stable. Demand side is still acceptable, with small orders as the main focus and limited quantities of large orders.

DMF Historical Price Monitoring: Currently, the price monitoring levels of DMF are 1-year medium low, two-year low, and three-year low. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average DMF price in the past year is 4880 yuan/ton, with a median value of 5000 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 4525 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 5475 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past year) is 205 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past year) is -745 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Technical prediction: In the short term, DMF may maintain its current trend with limited upward space

The future market of DMF may maintain its current trend, with a focus on stable and strong operations, with limited upward space. Since March 10, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 16, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in the operating trend within the next 7 days (i.e., the 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) is 49.47%. Currently, this probability is similar, and it is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current narrow range and strong adjustment in the near future.

In summary, currently the cost side is dominated by upstream prices, and equipment maintenance provides favorable support for DMF. In addition, with the upcoming May Day holiday, downstream demand for replenishment is clearly driven. It is expected that the DMF market will mainly operate at high prices in the short term, with a focus on negotiations at a high level. The mainstream price is around 4800-5000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of isobutyraldehyde stopped falling and rebounded, rising

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the isobutyraldehyde price of 7287.50 yuan/ton on April 8th; The price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 0.17% compared to April 12th at 7212.50 yuan/ton. Cost support for rising demand is weak, and the downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde prices has weakened. The upward momentum has increased, and the price of isobutyraldehyde has stopped falling and rebounded this week.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the price of propylene was 6892.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.06% compared to the price of 6820.60 yuan/ton on April 8th. The price of raw material crude oil continues to rise, the cost of propylene has risen, the supply of propylene is sufficient, downstream construction has increased, and the enthusiasm for propylene transactions has increased. This week, the support for propylene’s rise has increased.

Downstream demand is weak

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of new pentanediol was 9933.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton on April 8th. This week, the new pentanediol factory offered discounts on sales, resulting in high inventory levels among the new pentanediol manufacturers; Formaldehyde prices have fluctuated and fallen, while isobutyraldehyde prices have rebounded. In terms of raw materials, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; Downstream demand for neopentyl glycol is weak. This week, the downward pressure on new pentanediol has weakened, and there is still upward momentum.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of raw materials, propylene prices have fluctuated and risen, isobutyraldehyde costs have risen, and the support for isobutyraldehyde cost increases; In terms of demand, the market support for new pentanediol is limited, and the price of new pentanediol is fluctuating and stabilizing. In the future, the cost increase of isobutyraldehyde will provide greater support, and weak demand will continue. The downward pressure on isobutyraldehyde will weaken, and the upward support will increase. It is expected that the price of isobutyraldehyde will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

Recently, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has remained stable. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 72000 to 73000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

The price of lithium carbonate in the market has risen, putting pressure on the high cost side. Some companies have raised their prices by 2000 yuan/ton. As of April 11th, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate for Shengyishe was 116800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the beginning of this month (116000.00 yuan/ton).

The price of lithium fluoride in the market is surging, with some companies raising prices by 5000 yuan/ton on April 12th. Some small and medium-sized enterprises are experiencing a low market operating rate due to the continuous increase in raw materials, which makes it difficult for pressure bearing equipment to be shut down.

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, due to the continuous increase in raw materials, the production cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate is under high pressure, and downstream electrolyte enterprises have weak demand. In the near future, the fluctuation of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market is limited, and it may focus on maintaining stable operation. More information still needs to be paid attention to the raw material market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride increased in early April. As of the 11th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% from the price of 7587.5 yuan/ton on the 1st, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.17%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has risen, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Rising prices of ortho benzene, strong cost support

In the first ten days, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene increased. As of the 11th, the price of ortho benzene was 8300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% compared to the 1st price of 8100 yuan/ton. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site equipment is stable. In the short term, the crude oil price trend is rising, and the price of mixed xylene is rising. The rise of ortho benzene market provides strong cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market is rising.

On the demand side, the trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is declining

In early April, the downstream DOP market price trend declined, with a price of 9750 yuan/ton as of the 11th, a decrease of 1.42% from the price of 9890 yuan/ton on the 1st. Domestic DOP enterprises started operating generally, and domestic DOP supply was sufficient. However, plasticizer enterprises still suffered losses in profits, and downstream demand was poor. The mainstream DOP price range was 9700-9800 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride was poor, limiting the price increase in the domestic phthalic anhydride market.

Technical aspect: The price line of Shengyishe crosses the 7-day and 30-day moving averages upwards, indicating that the price of phthalic anhydride has entered an upward channel. From the price line of the past six months, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level in the past six months.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has been mainly upward, while the price of ortho xylene has been rising, and the downstream DOP market is mainly fluctuating and decreasing. In addition, the price of phthalic anhydride is at a low level, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses. It is expected that the market price of ortho xylene phthalic anhydride will slightly increase in the future.

In early April, the domestic PA6 market remained stable with slight fluctuations, and spot prices fluctuated. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 10th, the domestic PA6 mixed benchmark price was 14800 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.17% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Cost factor: In the early stage, the high domestic load and high inventory of caprolactam upstream of PA6 caused its price to rapidly decline. Recently, due to the continuous rise of raw material pure benzene, the spot price of caprolactam stopped falling and stabilized in early April. On the supply side, although 87% of domestic caprolactam enterprises are still at a high load position, there are more enterprises with maintenance arrangements in the future, and there is an expectation of production narrowing, which may share some supply pressure. Overall, the cost support of caprolactam for PA6 has shifted from weak to stable.

Supply level: In early April, the load of PA6 production enterprises remained stable with an increase, and the average operating rate was raised from around 83% to over 85%. The market supply is stable, the supply of goods is abundant, and the inventory level is generally stable. However, due to the slower digestion speed of some sliced products, the accumulation of inventory has begun to increase recently, and the support from the supply side for the PA6 market has weakened accordingly.

On the demand side: In early April, the downstream enterprises of domestic PA6 had a decent load. Currently, the production of nylon filament is stable at a high level of around 84%, while the production rate of weaving is fluctuating at a narrow range of 73%. The main logic of downstream PA6 stocking still revolves around maintaining production. Although there is some support for demand side from rigid consumption, the profitability of nylon enterprises is poor, which will inevitably affect their willingness to stock up in the future. The bearish sentiment may gradually spread to PA6.

At the same time, the negative market trend of PA6 in the early March persisted throughout the month, causing the current market confidence to have not yet recovered. The buyer camp is influenced by a negative mentality, and trading operations on the exchange tend to be cautious. At present, the flow of goods is mainly concentrated in the delivery of early orders, and there has been no increase in volume for new purchases. Based on various downstream news, the demand side support for PA6 in the future may be favorable but difficult to achieve.

Technical analysis

The probability of a decline in the PA6 market is slightly higher than the probability of an increase, and spot prices may continue to search for market equilibrium points. The prediction model of the Business Society’s commodity analysis system shows that since March 10, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 7, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 41.89%.

Historical price monitoring [medium to low]: Currently, the price of PA6 has basically returned to the beginning of the year, with monitoring levels of 1-year medium high, 2-year medium low, and 3-year medium low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of PA6 in the past three years is 14919.80 yuan/ton, with a median value of 15566.67 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 13233.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 17900 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 1516.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -3150 yuan/ton.

In early April, the 30 day deviation of PA6 from the average fluctuated between -152.5 yuan and -79.17 yuan, and the price of PA6 was in a fluctuating state.

Future Market Forecast

In early April, the PA6 market fluctuated narrowly. From a fundamental perspective, it is expected that the supply pressure of PA6 will rise, and the sluggish consumption is likely to continue. Technically speaking, the probability of crossing the 30 day line above the 7-day line in the short term is relatively low, and the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe indicates that the possibility of PA6 falling in the future is greater than rising. In summary, the current PA6 market lacks guidance on bullish news, and it is expected that the market will fall more or rise less in the future.