This week, the focus of butyl acrylate has been pushed upwards. The raw material n-butanol continues to rise, and the cost supports the mentality of butyl acrylate factories. The supplier’s quotation is higher. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in Shengyishe is 9500.00 yuan/ton, which is 0.29% higher than yesterday’s (9472.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

Recently, the price of n-butanol has dropped first and then increased. Both long and short sides are engaged in a game around the fundamentals and news of butanol. The main logic of this market increase is the increase in parking of supply side devices, especially some devices in Shandong that unexpectedly reduced production. If this positive factor is delisted or the market has adapted to the tight supply situation, the market lacks clear positive support, so the rise of the n-butanol market is limited. As of April 9th, the benchmark price of n-butanol in Shengyishe was 7816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63% compared to yesterday (7766.67 yuan/ton).

Demand side:

The downstream acrylic lotion is in the off-season due to the lack of infrastructure construction in the terminal market. The demand for lotion is insufficient, and the demand for the emulsion is still in demand. Although the weather is getting warmer, the market is generally boosted. It is expected that in the near future, the cost side will be under strong pressure, and the factory mentality will be relatively warm.

The prices of downstream adhesive tape master rolls have recently been partially lowered, with mainstream market transaction prices ranging from 9200 to 9800 yuan/ton. The price of butyl acrylate has also increased, and the cost support for the adhesive tape master roll market is still acceptable. However, market demand is still weak, the transaction atmosphere is average, and the mentality of various markets is different. The actual transaction volume in the market is limited.

Recently, butyl acrylate has been operating steadily. At present, there is still a certain level of demand in the downstream market, but downstream enterprises are weak in chasing high prices. If raw material prices continue to rise, the profits of downstream enterprises will be compressed, and the market follow-up momentum will be insufficient. There is a possibility that market demand will weaken.

Overall

Affected by the rise in raw material n-butanol and supply side contraction, the market price of butyl acrylate has risen to 9450-9550 yuan/ton. However, it is expected that as the rising trend of raw materials gradually stagnates, the upward momentum of the butyl acrylate market will weaken. Follow up on the market trends of raw materials such as n-butanol and acrylic acid.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6540 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6540 yuan/ton on April 1st. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have been sorted and operated. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has slightly increased, with support from the cost side. The demand for hot process phosphoric acid in the market is limited, and downstream purchases are made on demand. The atmosphere for wet process phosphoric acid delivery has improved. As of April 8th, the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6100-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased this week. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market is average. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers have a low intention to accept orders at low prices, with manufacturers mainly offering high prices. Downstream procurement is cautious, with demand being the main focus. Take as much as you need and wait and see. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is average. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 22600-22800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. The phosphate ore market has been operating steadily this week. At present, the overall trading volume in the domestic phosphate ore market is light, and downstream new orders for phosphate ore are mainly for rigid demand procurement, with the market waiting for demand to be released. As of April 8th, the reference price for domestic phosphate ore market is around 1062 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Phosphorus Acid Analyst believes that after the holiday, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus will strengthen, and cost support will improve. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will remain stable with an upward trend. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in costs and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on April 1st was 5616 yuan/ton. On April 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5650 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 0.59% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, leading to increased cost support. Driven by cost assistance, chlorinated paraffin enterprises have slightly increased their quotations. At present, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement is required. Detailed discussions on actual orders are needed. As of April 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5400-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has increased this week. The current market trend is improving, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fluctuated and increased this week. The market transaction atmosphere is improving, and the sales are still good, with actual orders and negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the chlorinated paraffin market has slightly increased recently. At present, the cost side has strong support, and the demand side is mainly based on demand. The market maintains a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable and rise in the short term.

After experiencing a significant decline recently, the acetonitrile market is currently in a weak consolidation state. As of April 3rd, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 9720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from Monday. The early price decline was due to a double decline in revenue and profit in the downstream pesticide industry; On the other hand, there is a sustained oversupply.

Recent Focus on Acetonitrile:

Demand: The operating rate of acetonitrile in the downstream pesticide field is still not high, and the demand side lacks sustainable and favorable support.

Supply: However, some factories have started preparing maintenance plans. Therefore, the downward rhythm of acetonitrile has significantly slowed down, supplier quotations have remained stable, and spot market trading remains deadlocked. At present, there is no change in the fundamentals, and demand remains weak. Buying is mainly focused on immediate follow-up.

At present, the supply of by-product method acetonitrile still dominates, and the supply directly affects the price trend of acetonitrile. Therefore, the price of acetonitrile is closely related to the operating rate of by-product method enterprises. Domestic synthetic method enterprises have increased, and downstream high-purity acetonitrile is mainly for self use, resulting in a reduction in export volume.

Next week’s forecast:

Overall, although there are positive factors on the supply side, the current price of acetonitrile is only limited to stabilizing and consolidating, and downstream demand for acetonitrile has not improved. The market supply surplus continues, coupled with a lack of cost support, the price will continue to remain stable in the short term. In addition, we need to pay attention to the export situation, but acetonitrile is currently at a low level, which may be attractive to intermediaries and downstream users.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of dichloroethane in China on March 31st was 2760 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average market price of dichloroethane in China was 2720 yuan/ton. The price of dichloroethane increased by 1.47% in March.

2、 Analysis and Review

In March, the market price of dichloroethane experienced a roller coaster rise and fall. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its upward trend in February and reached a peak on March 10th. The average market price of dichloroethane was 2840 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.41% compared to the beginning of the month. The markets in Shandong and Shanghai have rebounded, with companies mainly raising their prices, creating a strong trading atmosphere in the market. In the second half of the month, the price of dichloroethane stopped rising and fell, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere in the market. Since March, the focus of dichloroethane in the Jiangsu region has slightly declined, with poor new orders and main inventory consumption.

In terms of raw materials:

In March, the Asian ethylene market weakened with an average CFR price of $930 per ton in Northeast Asia, a decrease of $20 per ton from the beginning of the month; The average price of CFR in Southeast Asia is $1010 per ton, and the price is stable. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

In terms of demand:

The operation of vinyl chloride factories in the Asian region is normal, and the supply of goods is stable. At the same time, downstream procurement continues the previous stable trend, and the overall supply and demand in the region is balanced. The transaction atmosphere in the vinyl chloride market is still good.

The domestic PVC market lacks domestic demand power. Currently, the quotation for ethylene based PVC in East China is 6150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the market remains in a low and volatile state.

In terms of import and export:

In January, a large amount of dichloroethane was exported, and the market inventory was low. The price of dichloroethane in February was significantly affected by the increase in inventory and raw materials, and the export volume in February decreased significantly. Domestic consumption of inventory led to a decline in dichloroethane prices in March. According to customs data, the export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China in February 2024 was 35 tons, with an average export price of 3411 yuan/ton. The total export volume of 1,2-dichloroethane (ISO) from China from January to February was 5564.349 tons, a year-on-year increase of 92%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the market inventory is high, and raw materials are operating steadily with both external and internal fluctuations. The overall balance between supply and demand on the demand side is expected, and it is expected that the price of dichloroethane will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the near future.

In March, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market performed weakly, with little change in prices from major manufacturers and a loosening in import prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of single crystal dense materials is 3.72%. The main reason is that the supply of silicon materials is abundant, and downstream demand for photovoltaics is lagging behind. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon saw a weekly increase and decrease of 0%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55-6000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the operating rate of polycrystalline silicon remained relatively high in March, at around 80% or more. All the equipment in the large factory has started operating, and the supply is showing some pressure. On the one hand, the production of mainstream large factories is stable, and the addition of new production capacity brings incremental growth to the market, resulting in abundant domestic supply performance. However, due to the difficulties in increasing the burden on downstream silicon wafers, the inventory pressure of silicon wafer manufacturers is gradually increasing. In addition, with the slowdown of downstream procurement, the shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down, leading to silicon material manufacturers starting to accumulate inventory. Although the current prices have reached a low level, manufacturers are gradually showing a willingness to stand up for prices. Most manufacturers have not changed much in factory prices this month, and the main reason for the price decline is the impact of lower import volume. However, the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers may continue to weaken, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a long-term decline.

From the demand side, the downstream demand for photovoltaics in the market remained relatively rigid in March, while the production of pulling crystals remained at a medium high level. Therefore, the inventory level of silicon wafers has also risen, mainly due to the decrease in downstream battery procurement volume. Battery manufacturers generally maintain low production to cope with the difficulties of sluggish terminal installation procurement, which makes it difficult to digest more silicon wafer inventory and puts greater pressure on silicon wafer factories to ship. Therefore, the price of silicon wafers has dropped significantly this month. Generally exceeding 10%. As of the end of March 29th, the mainstream transaction price of M10 silicon wafers fell by 0.3 yuan this week, to 1.75 yuan per wafer; The mainstream transaction price of G12 has fallen significantly, with a drop of 0.35 yuan to 2.45 yuan per piece.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain may gradually become prominent, but the demand for installed capacity is still low. The upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials is still difficult to improve in the short term.

In March 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market fluctuated and rose strongly, continuing the upward trend of February at the beginning of the month, briefly declining in mid month, and continuing to rise in the latter half of the month, supported by tight supply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded an increase of 11.5% in March.

At the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia continued its upward trend in February. The main reason is the tight supply performance of the main production areas in the north, which is beneficial to support the price increase. The maintenance of equipment in northern regions is relatively concentrated, and some areas are affected by weather, resulting in low inventory of manufacturers due to supply shortages. In addition, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the ammonia market has noticeably rebounded. Manufacturers have raised their prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/ton in the first ten days. The dealer’s offer naturally skyrocketed.

After mid month, the market experienced a brief pullback, with prices falling from 3300 yuan to around 3000 yuan at the beginning of the month. The main reason is that there have been significant changes in the production of urea plants, with more liquid ammonia being transferred in northern regions, especially Shandong and Hebei, resulting in an increase in ammonia volume. In addition, central and eastern China have also successively reduced prices for shipments. The market has shifted from tight supply to short-term surplus. Manufacturers mainly reduce prices, with a reduction range of 300 yuan/ton.

In the latter half of the year, liquid ammonia rebounded again, and the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers significantly declined, especially with the ammonia release in the main production areas in the north shrinking by more than 5% compared to mid month. The performance of ammonia production in the market is tight, with multiple units undergoing maintenance in Henan, Anhui, and Northeast China. There is a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The ex factory price of liquid ammonia has naturally been repeatedly raised. Shandong manufacturers have generally raised prices 2-3 times within the week, with a cumulative increase of 300-400 yuan/ton. The market performance is in short supply.

Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, from a supply side perspective, the tight supply in the market has been alleviated with the commencement of some facilities, and prices have slightly stopped rising and fallen at the end of the month. It is expected that the supply will gradually stabilize in the later stage.

From the demand side, the agricultural gap period will continue until early April, and demand will be activated after mid April, which will continue to support the high level range of the ammonia market. Downstream demand needs to be followed up. The main focus of industrial demand is to maintain stable demand, and there is still some support for liquid ammonia in the future. From a cost perspective, especially coal fired ammonia enterprises, they may still be impacted by the weakness of coal, but the reduction of cost pressure will also provide more profit space for enterprises.

Taking all factors into consideration, the price of liquid ammonia will gradually stop rising and stabilize in the near future. In the short term, it is not ruled out that there is room for price decline due to the increase in supply. However, under the expectation of demand growth in mid to late April, the supply-demand game will intensify, and the ammonia market may still have a bright spot.

Price trend

In March, the domestic EVA market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices fluctuated and consolidated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11933.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.56% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market tends to operate in a stalemate in March, with the supply side’s EVA enterprise load rapidly decreasing from 93% at the beginning of the month to around 78% by mid month. The average operating rate at the end of the month has rebounded to over 92%. However, the inventory pressure of the petrochemical plant is still not high, and there are some production and maintenance plans at the end of the month. At present, suppliers still have a willingness to support the market, and there is still support from EVA suppliers for spot goods in March.

From the demand side perspective, EVA terminal enterprises have generally started production within the month, and their stocking situation tends to lag behind. The logic of purchasing and consumption for just needs remains unchanged. Among them, there are relatively few new orders in traditional downstream areas such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires, and overall, the demand for goods is mainly in demand. Merchants are influenced by the manufacturer’s price hikes and actively raise prices to ship. As the end of the month approaches, some brand names are secretly dropping and selling goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have remained stable this month. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. After the industry load fell, it rebounded, and the inventory position of petrochemical plants is still not high. Coupled with expectations of supply tightening in the future, factory prices remain strong in the market. The poor consumption of traditional shoe materials and cables on the demand side has dragged down the overall trading heat. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price of EVA will continue to be dominated by consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 26th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent grade premium product in China, was 16066.67 yuan/ton. PMMA prices mainly increased in March, with an overall increase of 2.12%, around 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the upstream MMA prices are showing a strong trend, and PMMA has some support on the cost side. Downstream demand is still acceptable. Currently, the overall market supply and demand of PMMA is balanced, with manufacturers mainly operating at high prices.

2、 Market analysis

In March, PMMA prices were dominant, with an overall increase of 2.12%, around 300 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream market price is around 16000 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of the PMMA market in March was around 64%. The operating rate of the upstream factory MMA was around 48%. The supply of PMMA in March was significantly lower than last month, with a decrease in on-site operating rate and supply side. Recently, it was announced that the MMA and PMMA New Materials Forum will be held in Suzhou from June 6th to 7th, 2024 to discuss the policies and market trends of the MMA and PMMA new materials industry, the latest technology and commercialization progress, the cost and environmental competitiveness of different route technologies, and investment in new projects. MMA integration with upstream and downstream, optical grade PMMA and other key downstream product planning, PMMA downstream application development and recycling, etc.

In terms of cost, MMA prices in March saw a narrow upward trend. Currently, factories have shown signs of pricing, with a focus on maintaining prices. The overall market negotiation is stable, with normal inventory consumption and average downstream procurement enthusiasm. On demand procurement is the main focus. MMA production is expected to be around 102000 tons in March, a decrease of about 2.2% compared to last month, and an increase of about 8.9% compared to the same period last year. Currently, the overall market supply is balanced.

In terms of cost, the acetone market showed a stable and weak trend in March, with prices rebounding and rising in late March. Currently, the mainstream price of acetone in the market is around 7250-7300 yuan/ton, and port inventories decreased at the beginning of the week. Traders have a strong mentality of supporting prices, and the focus of market negotiations is currently high. The transaction atmosphere is good. In April, several phenolic ketone companies reported maintenance news, with maintenance time from the end of March to the end of April, which is about one month. During the maintenance period, the market supply will be reduced, and downstream PMMA will have some positive support on the cost side.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for PMMA is still acceptable, and the procurement atmosphere is positive. With the popularity of power vehicles, PMMA, as one of the raw materials for producing automotive parts, is widely used in projects such as car lights, windshields, and windows. Due to its high strength, toughness, and wear resistance, it can effectively improve the safety and comfort of cars. Since March, the demand for power vehicles has increased, and there has been a shortage of supply, leading to a surge in the price of PMMA.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that the current operating rate of the PMMA market is relatively stable, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Many manufacturers are mainly inclined to raise prices, and downstream demand is constantly increasing. There is a slight shortage of upstream supply. Although some companies have started to expand production, it will take some time to officially release production capacity, and the cost side has a certain supporting effect. Therefore, it is expected that PMMA prices will maintain a narrow and strong trend in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, and on March 18, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to last week.

In terms of cost

At present, mining enterprises in Shanxi, Henan and other regions are actively promoting the resumption of mine production with the cooperation of the government. It is expected that mining production in the Shanxi region will gradually resume by the end of this month. If the domestic ore supply in Shanxi region improves, it will further promote the resumption of production of alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan.

In terms of supply and demand

The news of Yunnan aluminum enterprises resuming production has been announced, and the annual consumption increment of alumina driven by this resumption of production is about 1 million tons. Recently, mining production in Guizhou and Guangxi has gradually resumed, with over 1 million tons of alumina production capacity resuming in the region. The supply gap of alumina in the southwest region has not yet expanded, and spot prices are maintaining a tight balance. There are expectations for the release of production capacity on the demand side. On March 17th, relevant departments in Yunnan Province decided to release 800000 kilowatts of electricity load for the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. It is expected that the actual production capacity for this round of resumption will be around 400000 tons per year, and it is expected to be completed in mid April.

Post trend prediction

In recent times, the production capacity of alumina has been concentrated and released. Although downstream demand has been released ahead of schedule, the supply and demand have shown a surplus pattern, and the spot price of alumina continues to decline, seeking a bottom range. However, there is support on the cost side and limited downward space.