1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 850 yuan/ton on March 15th, and 816 yuan/ton on March 21st. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 3.92%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has fallen this week. At present, the trading volume in the ammonium sulfate market is sluggish, and downstream purchases are in high demand. There is a resistance to high prices and many transactions are made at low prices. Recently, the price of urea has weakened, coupled with the fact that the export market has not improved, which is bearish for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. As of March 21st, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 750-805 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 830-850 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the price trend of ammonium sulfate has recently declined. The demand side continues to be sluggish, with poor domestic and international market conditions. At present, it is difficult to find favorable market conditions, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate price will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

This week (3.13-3.20), the market trend of calcium formate fluctuated and declined. As of March 20th, the benchmark price of calcium formate at Shengyishe was 3732.50 yuan/ton. Compared with last week (3782.50 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32%. The reference price for the North China market is 3600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the East China market is 3750 yuan/ton;

Cost side:

The market price of raw material formic acid is stable, with a benchmark price of 3300.00 yuan/ton for Shengyishe formic acid, which is unchanged from last week. Cost support is still acceptable.

Overall

The main reason for the slight decrease in the market price of calcium formate is that there is sufficient on-site spot supply, and the overall purchasing enthusiasm is weak due to the influence of terminal real estate. However, in the future, analysts from Business Society predict that as the price of calcium formate decreases, terminal market demand may recover, which will alleviate market supply and demand. In the short term, the price of calcium formate will remain stable.

Recently, the market price of acetonitrile has shown a significant downward trend. As of March 19th, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 9800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.81 yuan/ton compared to last week (9880 yuan/ton). The fluctuation of market prices is mainly influenced by both supply and demand, showing a certain degree of instability.

In terms of demand:

The overall sentiment in the acetonitrile market has weakened this week, with the most important being that demand has not followed up as expected, and overall supplier shipments are still slow. In response to market changes, suppliers have lowered their prices. Although downstream demand has not improved significantly during this period, the main reason is that downstream pesticide production has not increased significantly, and some factories are still digesting early inventory.

In terms of supply:

Due to overcapacity in the early stage, which is also a major factor in suppressing market price increases, the inventory of enterprises remains sufficient in the short term; In addition, after the increase in production of synthetic method enterprises, the prices of raw materials such as acetic acid and synthetic ammonia have remained low and fluctuated, and the short-term increase in external sales is also limited.

Overall

In the early stage, the market mainly relied on supply reduction to drive price increases, but currently, the favorable factors in the market are not favorable. Especially the slow growth of downstream demand will put pressure on the price of acetonitrile. Another reason is that after a significant increase in prices in the early stages, intermediaries have a low enthusiasm for replenishing acetonitrile, mainly relying on wait-and-see. This move is affecting the overall trend of the market.

In summary, analysts from Business Society predict that the market price of acetonitrile may continue to decline this week due to multiple factors.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from March 8th to 15th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 781 yuan/ton to 9731 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.51% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.25%. The domestic price of cyclohexanone is on a wait-and-see basis, and the recent consolidation of raw material pure benzene has strengthened the cost support. The spot supply of cyclohexanone is stable, and downstream demand is mostly followed up. Due to a slight rebound in the pure benzene market, the cyclohexanone industry has stopped falling and stabilized.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: domestic pure benzene prices are relatively high. The domestic production of pure benzene has limited changes, and the downstream demand for pick-up is stable. However, the number of imported goods on board has increased, and port inventories have slightly accumulated. As of March 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8508.83 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The average weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 68.67%, and the weekly production is 104100 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The sales of caprolactam and downstream PA6 chips have improved, and the market has stabilized. However, there are still concerns about the supply of caprolactam in the later stage of the market, and the polymerization factory mainly purchases raw materials on demand. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene will operate in a volatile manner, with relatively stable cost support. There is not much spot supply of cyclohexanone, and downstream demand is uncertain. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.45% compared to the reference average price of 6630 yuan/ton on March 8th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6683 yuan/ton, which is a 0.75% increase compared to the reference average price of 6633 yuan/ton on March 8th.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic phosphate market has shown mixed performance this week. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support and a slight decrease in the price of thermal phosphoric acid. At present, the demand for thermal phosphoric acid in the market is relatively light, and the transaction atmosphere is not good. This week, the demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market has increased, and the trading atmosphere is good. Manufacturers and distributors have raised their prices. Driven by demand, the operating rate of wet process phosphoric acid has increased.

As of March 14th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6600 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6000-7450 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the focus of the yellow phosphorus market continued to decline, and the trading situation on the market was average. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, but new orders have limited transaction volume. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, demand is average, and there are many cases of underpricing procurement. It is mainly wait-and-see, and the procurement is more cautious. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is relatively light. As of March 14th, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the overall domestic phosphate ore market is in a stable and consolidating operation after a slight increase. In some regions of China, mining companies have continued to maintain previous prices, and the overall market adjustment is limited. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and the recovery of the end market is relatively slow, with little pressure on the supply side of phosphate ore. As of March 14th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the current performance of the phosphoric acid market is inconsistent, with a strong trend in wet process phosphoric acid and a weak trend in hot process phosphoric acid, and the market follows the trend of raw materials and demand. It is expected that the short-term price of thermal phosphoric acid will continue to weaken and consolidate, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid will continue to rise.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market trend of sodium acetate trihydrate was narrow and weak this week, with a price of 2383 yuan/ton on March 13th, a decrease of 0.69% compared to February 13th.

In terms of raw material soda ash: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic light soda ash price on March 13th was 2046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.65% compared to February 13th. The supply of spot soda ash has started to fluctuate at a high level, and the inventory of enterprises continues to accumulate. In terms of downstream demand, procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. The price of soda ash is operating in a weak market.

Regarding raw material acetic acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic acetic acid price on March 13th was 3115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.05% compared to February 13th. The operating rate of acetic acid enterprises is relatively high. In March, acetic acid manufacturers have no maintenance plans, and the market supply of goods may be mainly high. Downstream product demand is weak, and there is limited purchasing of acetic acid. There is a lack of favorable conditions on site, and the market price of acetic acid has been lowered one after another.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overcapacity and price decline of upstream products have led to a weakening of the price of sodium acetate trihydrate, and it is expected that sodium acetate trihydrate will operate in a weak market in the future.

This week, the market for ethyl acrylate has been fluctuating and weakening. There is also inventory pressure in the ethyl acrylate market, which provides limited support for the actual cost of ethyl acrylate. The fundamental stalemate in the market continues, and the supply and demand structure in various regions of China remains stable. There is not much change in enterprise equipment. As of March 12th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 9480 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.26% compared to last Monday (9505 yuan/ton).

Supply side

At present, there is no significant fluctuation in the acrylic acid production equipment, and the inventory of spot supply is currently at a limited level. This week, the production capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry was around 70%, a decrease of -0.34% compared to last week. The price of acrylic acid in the market remained stable and slightly increased, with lower end prices falling slightly. The weekly average price increased by 1.19% month on month; The weekly average price of propylene in Shandong fell by 0.23%, and the overall market slightly declined;

Demand side

The downstream acrylic resin, coating and other industries of ethyl acrylate mainly maintain rigid demand consumption, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries increases with the quotation of ethyl acrylate; The main focus is on maintaining fixed consumption of adhesive tape master rolls, and the procurement volume is mainly focused on small orders with a high demand; Acrylic acid lotion industry maintains rigid demand procurement.

Overall

According to the analysis of the follow-up of the upstream and downstream chain market trends and the transmission progress of market influencing factors, the current market situation of ethyl acrylate may still be affected by the overall weak situation as an intermediate, and the stalemate situation may still require clear assistance and stimulation.

Price trend chart of trichloroethylene

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the barrel price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak this week, with an average price of 6840 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6560 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.09% during the week.

Analysis and Review

The price of trichloroethylene continues to decline, and the trading atmosphere on the market is light. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement has weakened, and the price of new orders is close to cost. Manufacturers have further weakened their profit sentiment. On March 6th, the barrel prices of manufacturers in East China slightly increased, but the market inventory is large and shipments are active. The quota policy for third-generation refrigerants on the demand side has been implemented, and the pattern of the refrigerant industry continues to optimize. The price war among manufacturers has weakened, and the refrigerant industry as a whole has entered a business cycle. In addition, with the upcoming peak season for downstream refrigerant stocking in March, manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support, and the domestic refrigerant R134a price has risen strongly.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s trichloroethylene analyst believes that the upward price of refrigerant R134a on the demand side provides good support for trichloroethylene, and it is expected that trichloroethylene will fluctuate in the future market.

This week (3.4-8), the domestic ethyl acetate market showed weak performance, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of Friday, the decline in ethyl acetate was 2.24%, with a cumulative range of 100-200 yuan/ton. The main reason is the weak performance of supply and demand.

Since the beginning of this week, the supply and demand in the ethyl acetate market have been weak. On the one hand, the cost side has shown pressure. Since March, the price of acetic acid has continued to decline, with a decrease of nearly 2% this week. More importantly, downstream ethyl esters have been affected by weak supply and demand, leading to stable production by manufacturers and an increase in supply after the holiday; However, due to weak demand and negative pressure from both supply and demand, the price of ethyl ester has not remained stable. This week, Shandong’s main large factories bid for shipments, with the starting price lowered twice, exceeding 100 yuan/ton, suppressing market confidence. The market follows suit, dealers lower prices to ship, resulting in a bearish decline in prices.

It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will remain weak and volatile in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6400-6600 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of March 7th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate is 43240 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate has shown a steady increase, with a weekly increase of 0.56%. After the holiday, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in the market has improved, and in March, sales of new energy vehicles have slowly recovered. The upstream raw material end has shown a strong trend, and currently, the lithium iron phosphate market is showing obvious benefits.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the production and sales of lithium iron phosphate were affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and terminal demand slowly recovered. The inventory of new energy vehicles was relatively high, mainly based on consumption inventory. After the holiday, it entered March, and the demand for new energy vehicles steadily increased. The upstream raw material lithium carbonate market rebounded, boosting the overall industry chain and strengthening the confidence of positive electrode material enterprises. Leading enterprises increased by about 40%, and the increase in raw material prices drove up the price of lithium iron phosphate, At present, the downstream demand side is improving, orders are increasing, and the overall trend is mainly strong.

In terms of cost: On March 6th, imported lithium ore prices increased by 50-250 yuan/ton, domestic lithium ore prices increased by 50-150 yuan/ton, and lithium ore prices ranged from 100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton within the week. Currently, upstream carbonate prices have continued to rise for several days, and the market transaction atmosphere is improving. Lithium iron phosphate has strong support on the cost side, with prices passively rising and mainly rising.

In terms of demand: Currently, the new energy vehicle sector continues to improve, but the growth rate has slowed down. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2024, China’s new energy vehicle production was 787000 units, with sales of 729000 units, an increase of 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year, respectively. In January, the market share of new energy vehicles reached 29.9%. In February, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China reached 450000 units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and 34% month on month. There were relatively few working days in February, Due to the relatively weak automobile consumption before and after the Spring Festival holiday, sales in February showed a downward trend. Entering March, sales of new energy vehicles rebounded, and it is expected that retail sales of new energy vehicles in March will be around 560000 units, a month on month increase of 27.5%, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, and a penetration rate of about 35.2%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, against the backdrop of the rapid development of new energy vehicles, as the main raw material for producing lithium batteries, the demand for lithium iron phosphate will continue to grow, and downstream demand will skyrocket. Currently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate is hovering around the cost line, and there will be no major decline in the short term. The main trend is to maintain stability, strength, or narrow upward trend. Therefore, the price of lithium iron phosphate is prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.