Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 6th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36166 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Recently, pure benzene has been experiencing consecutive days of poor shipments and a decrease in price.

The nitric acid market is mostly dominated by inquiries after the holiday, with prices continuing to decline and insufficient support for phenylenediamine in the cost side.

In terms of demand

The downstream operating rate has increased, and after the holiday, we will resume work and replenish goods as needed. The demand for customers to purchase dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products has not significantly improved.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, upstream pure benzene saw weak consolidation and nitric acid prices continued to decline. Downstream urgent replenishment, industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, market transactions are weak, and the stable operation of meta phenylenediamine in the later stage is the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of chloroacetic acid fell in February, with a price of 3175 yuan/ton as of February 29th. At the beginning of the month, the average price of chloroacetic acid was 3275 yuan/ton, but decreased by 100 yuan/ton within the month, a decrease of 3.05%, and a price drop of 10.1% compared to the beginning of the year.

Affected by the decline in upstream acetic acid prices, the price of chloroacetic acid has shown a weak downward trend.

Affected by rainy and snowy weather, logistics and transportation in the northern region are restricted, and acetic acid factories have poor shipments. Enterprise inventory has accumulated, and the market trading atmosphere is weak, resulting in a downward trend in acetic acid market prices.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the chloroacetic acid market is light, and the shipping pace is average. However, as logistics transportation gradually recovers, the low inventory of upstream acetic acid will provide some support to the chloroacetic acid market, and the weak situation will be alleviated. In the short term, the chloroacetic acid market will mainly operate steadily, and specific trends still need to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of raw silk reached historic highs this week (2.24-3.1). As of March 1st, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 530350 yuan/ton, an increase of 12000 yuan/ton or 2.32% compared to last week’s price of 518350; The average market price of dried cocoons is 165000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan/ton or 1.54% compared to last week’s price of 162500 yuan.

This week, the electronic raw silk index and monthly spot prices have repeatedly reached historic highs, with the raw silk index in the Chinese cocoon silk trading market rising by 1.84%. In terms of the spot market, it is understood that in recent days, the specific prices of various grades and specifications of raw silk from silk reeling enterprises have mostly increased, mostly around 5000/ton, some higher, and some factories have already made transactions, some waiting for downstream acceptance of transactions; Some silk reeling enterprises have just started production and have not yet made a quotation or transaction. High quality raw silk units have shown varying price increases, and transactions have been more active compared to last week.

On the silk floss, some silk floss enterprises in Guangxi have reported that the price of silk floss has not increased, and it is currently basically at the level at the end of last year. Many home textile companies have only started construction and have not had much trading volume, so the price increase is not visible; Some enterprises in Zhejiang have reported that they are still supplying old customers at pre year prices, while others have reported an increase in raw material supply under the current situation.

On the price of dried cocoons, after the 15th anniversary, there have been reports of high prices for dried cocoons, leading to a significant gap in psychological expectations between buyers and sellers for prices, increasing the difficulty of transactions. The number of transactions this week was relatively small, and the transaction prices were basically the same as last week. Since last winter and this spring, stimulated by the high cocoon prices, the overall sales of mulberry seedlings in Jiangsu Subei, Zhejiang Hangjiahu, and local mulberry seedling bases in Guangxi have been good. The price of grafted seedlings has increased compared to the same period last year, and new mulberry expansion momentum is good in areas with foundations.

Downstream silk and satin enterprises have engaged in price adjustments for a small number of units and varieties this week, mostly ranging from 1 to 2 yuan; Some companies can only make minor adjustments to the conventional domestic sales of goods, while others still offer prices based on previous years in hopes of closing deals. Some silk factories have reported that the price of silk has increased, but the price of silk remains stable and there is a lot of pressure; Some companies have reported that the prices of domestic products that are currently being sold are basically not increasing or slightly increasing, and some customers are very sensitive to prices as they do not take the goods even after a slight increase; A silk factory has reported that export sales are mostly small orders. On the whole, there is an uneven distribution of hot and cold sales both domestically and internationally, with uneven distribution of hot and cold among different varieties, and the performance of enterprises continues to differentiate. Some innovative and fashionable fabrics are in high demand, with prices steadily increasing. However, competition between suppliers and rising raw material costs continue to put pressure on orders.

From the wholesale markets of silk clothing in Hangzhou and other cities, it can be seen that this week is in the period of opening in fifteen years, with a good opening state, but the foot traffic is still not high. It is expected that the wholesale trend will change with the start of exhibitions in various regions after March, the rhythm of regular delivery periods, and the rise in temperature.

In the current market environment of overall oversupply, with the transparency of overall consumption degradation, there is great competition pressure in the fabric and clothing product market, and the difficulty for enterprises to synchronously raise prices is also increasing. From all aspects, the market is recovering, but there is still some time before the true peak season, and the overall direction of the market needs to be observed. The key to the subsequent market trend also depends on whether the demand of downstream customers can be boosted.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of February 29, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1052 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1, the basic price has decreased by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in February, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight decline. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the overall performance of the phosphate ore field was relatively calm, with most of the domestic ores suspended and mining suspended, and the trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field was light. During the holiday period, the phosphate ore market was generally in a semi closed state, with no significant fluctuations in supply and demand. After the holiday, the overall production of phosphate ore has been average, and some mining areas are still in the closed mining stage. The downstream demand for phosphate ore has recovered relatively slowly, and new orders have been average. Some mining enterprises have narrowly reduced the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore after the holiday. The reduction is around 10-20 yuan/ton. As of February 29th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall construction of the phosphate ore market is steadily recovering, and the downstream market will also enter a stage of demand boosting with the warming weather. Therefore, the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mostly stabilize with a slight recovery, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black increased significantly in February, with a significant increase after the Spring Festival. As of the 29th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 9966 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 600 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar has risen this month. As of the 28th, the price of coal tar was 4430 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, most coke companies maintained a certain level of production restriction, and the supply and demand performance of the coal tar market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the third round of price reduction for coke fell, and coke companies were about to lose profits, leading to a decline in operating rates. The supply of coal tar in the coal tar field was tight, and downstream enterprise raw material inventories were quickly digested, greatly increasing their enthusiasm for purchasing coal tar, In some regions, coke companies have implemented significant production restrictions, resulting in tight supply of coal tar on site and an increase in prices. At present, the high-temperature coal tar market has maintained a stable operating state after a significant upward trend, providing strong support for the cost of carbon black. It is expected that the price of coal tar will continue to be strong in March..

Starting situation: From the perspective of post holiday operating rates compared to the previous period, most carbon black enterprises are currently operating steadily, with some maintaining high levels..

In terms of terminals, the tire industry experienced a significant shutdown during holidays before and after the Spring Festival, resulting in a significant decline in overall production. After the holiday, most downstream tire industry enterprises have resumed production, and the tire industry has resumed work and increased production, resulting in a significant increase in production and improved shipments. The current market inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased, and the demand for raw material carbon black is still acceptable.

Import and export situation: According to customs data, China imported 24000 tons of carbon black in December 2023, an increase of 16.37% year-on-year and 6.47% month on month; From January to December 2023, China imported a total of 274000 tons of carbon black, an increase of 163.55% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 170000 tons. According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in December 2023 were approximately 75300 tons, an increase of 43.03% year-on-year and 20.06% month on month. From January to December 2023, China’s cumulative export of carbon black reached 727000 tons, a decrease of 9.98% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 80600 tons

Production data: In January 2024, China’s carbon black production was 490300 tons, an increase of 37.22% year-on-year and 4% month on month.

In the future, the high-temperature coal tar market has improved, providing stronger support for the cost of carbon black; The downstream tire industry is still in a seasonal off-season, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively cold. With early holiday arrangements, the demand for raw material carbon black is slightly flat, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices increased significantly in February. The market price of sulfuric acid increased from 187.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 203.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.67%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 19.57% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have fluctuated this month, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are relatively low.

Cost side: The sulfur market has significantly increased

From a cost perspective, the post holiday sulfur market has a positive trading atmosphere, smooth refinery shipments, and an increase in sulfur prices. In February, the price of sulfur increased from 933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1020 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.29%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 8.66% year-on-year. The upstream sulfur market has significantly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

On the demand side, the downstream market fluctuates narrowly

From the demand side, the follow-up of new orders in the ammonium phosphate market is weak, and the trading atmosphere is weak, with a decline in the focus of ammonium phosphate transactions. The market price of monoammonium phosphate in February decreased from 3133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3120 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 6.31% year-on-year. The downstream market of sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid.

Looking at the future: In mid to early March, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. Although the downstream market for monoammonium phosphate is consolidating at a low level, the downstream’s enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid is weak. But the upstream sulfur prices have significantly increased, leading to increased cost support. The sulfuric acid analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PVC spot market prices will remain stable and increase after the year. On February 17th, the average domestic PVC price was 5566 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, the average price was 5592 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.47%.

2、 Market analysis

After the year, the spot market price of PVC will remain stable with an increase. At present, the spot market situation is average, and the trading situation is relatively light. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Traders have relatively flexible prices, and market transaction prices fluctuate. Downstream markets are more wait-and-see, and if you just need to pick up the goods, use a little to pick them up. Actual transactions remain cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 5540-5850 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on February 23rd, international crude oil futures plummeted by nearly 3%. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.49 per barrel, a decrease of $2.12 or 2.7%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $80.80 per barrel, a decrease of $1.90 or 2.3%. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve has released hawkish signals, delaying expectations of interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers will decrease after the year. On February 17th, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 2933.33 yuan/ton, and on February 26th, the average price was 2900 yuan/ton, with a 1.14% decrease in prices during the week. With the recovery of logistics transportation, enterprise shipments have improved, production enterprises are actively shipping, and inventory has decreased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the PVC spot market will be average after the year. Upstream calcium carbide has been lowered, with average support. Traders have more flexible prices, with market prices fluctuating. Downstream factories are more cautious and restock as needed. It is expected that the PVC spot market will fluctuate and consolidate within the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

After the holiday, the price of tetrachloroethylene fell narrowly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 18th, the domestic price of tetrachloroethylene was 4083 yuan/ton, a narrow decrease from the price of 4116 yuan/ton on February 8th before the holiday; With sufficient market supply in mid January but weak trading, prices began to decline slightly in February. After the holiday, the market followed the pricing of large factories, and the price of tetrachloroethylene fell narrowly.

The trend of stronger downstream refrigerants

The refrigerant market continued to rise strongly near the Spring Festival, with a significant increase. The factory offer for R125 has increased to 45000 yuan/ton, with a market price increase of 9000 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. Due to the increasing demand for air conditioning production and after-sales stocking in March, exploratory offers from enterprises continue to rise.

According to a tetrachloroethylene analyst from Business Society, although the expected increase in short-term market trading is limited as companies resume operations after the holiday, overall, there is still a bullish expectation for the tetrachloroethylene market after the holiday as downstream refrigerants tend to operate stronger.

Review of the 2023 market situation of polyaluminum chloride

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in the domestic market in 2023 was 2033.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 1777.50 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 12.60%. The highest point of the year occurred on January 1st at 2033.75 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on August 29th at 1700.00 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 16.41%. The market for polyaluminum chloride will experience a high-level decline in 2023.

According to the monthly K-bar chart data of the 2023 polyaluminum chloride market from Business Society, the polyaluminum chloride market experienced more declines and less gains in 2023, with 4 months of upward movement and 8 months of downward movement. The highest increase was in October, up 1.45%, and the highest decrease was in April, down 3.81%.

From January to early September, the market for polyaluminum chloride continued to decline. Water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas had normal production, sufficient spot inventory, unfavorable downstream procurement demand, weak industry prosperity, and a sustained weak market for polyaluminum chloride. From mid September to the end of the year, the market for polyaluminum chloride slightly rebounded, and the domestic market remained in a state of oversupply. The polyaluminum chloride market remained low, and market purchasing enthusiasm increased. In addition, some raw material prices rebounded, leading to an upward trend in polyaluminum chloride prices.

Market forecast for polyaluminum chloride in 2024

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market will experience a wide range of fluctuations in 2023. The average price at the beginning of the year was 174 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 112.50 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decline of 35.34%. The East China region is one of the main regions for hydrochloric acid production in China. Among them, Jiangsu Province is one of the important bases for hydrochloric acid production in China, with hydrochloric acid production ranking first in the country. In 2024, with the strengthening of environmental protection policies, some hydrochloric acid production enterprises may be forced to stop or reduce production, and hydrochloric acid production may decrease.

Supply side: According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 300 polyaluminum chloride production enterprises in China, with an annual production capacity of over 300000 tons (calculated based on a solid alumina content of 30%), mainly used for water treatment. The production capacity of northern regions, represented by Henan and Shandong, accounts for about 70% of the total domestic production capacity. In addition, due to abundant raw material resources, the Gongyi region of Henan has formed an industrial cluster with more than 130 local production enterprises, accounting for more than 50% of the total production capacity. It plays a leading role in balancing domestic supply and demand and has become a typical production base. At the same time, these enterprises have established distribution offices in Guangdong and other regions to implement regional structural adjustments in production and consumption. The northern region is gradually becoming a production base for polyaluminum chloride. The demand in the southern region continues to grow, becoming the main domestic consumption area.

Demand side: In addition to being used for traditional domestic water, industrial water, and urban sewage treatment, polyaluminum chloride can also be used for the treatment of pulp and paper wastewater, pharmaceutical wastewater, and printing and dyeing wastewater. As of 2023, the number of urban sewage treatment plants in China has exceeded 2000, with a daily processing capacity of 170 million cubic meters. At the same time, more and more rural areas are starting to build sewage treatment facilities, further promoting the development of the industry. With the strengthening of people’s environmental awareness and the strengthening of national environmental supervision, the application scope of polyaluminum chloride in water treatment will become increasingly broad, and the development prospects are optimistic.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply of polyaluminum chloride in China exceeds the demand, making it a buyer’s market with high market competition pressure. In 2024, China’s polyaluminum chloride inventory remains abundant; Although the demand for polyaluminum chloride has increased in 2024, the market is still in a state of oversupply. It is expected that the overall polyaluminum chloride market will fall in 2024.

Since February (2.1-2.7), the dichloromethane market has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 7th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2172 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61% from 2277 yuan/ton on the first day. The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated higher, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly decreased, and the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The cautious demand for downstream goods before the holiday is gradually weakening, and the inventory of enterprises has slightly increased, but the overall pressure is still acceptable. The dichloromethane market is weak and consolidating, with mainstream bulk water prices for dichloromethane in Shandong region around 2150-2250 yuan/ton as of February 7th.

Recently (2.1-2.7), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (2.1-2.7), the price of raw material methanol has risen, while the price of liquid chlorine has fallen, resulting in weak support for the cost of dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of February 7th, the spot price of methanol was 2640 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06% from 2561 yuan/ton on the 1st. As of February 7th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 1 yuan/ton, which is significantly lower than the previous price.

As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream construction is temporarily stable at a low level, and demand is gradually weakening, weakening support for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to data analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride market, the demand for dichloromethane is weak in the short term, with a slight increase in supply and a consolidation of cost fluctuations. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be mainly weak before the holiday.