According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of June 7, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 9200 yuan/ton. Compared with May 31 (reference price of n-butanol was 8366 yuan/ton), the price increased by 834 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.96%; Compared with May 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 7833 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 1367 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.45%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in May, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the first ten days, the n-butanol market steadily rose and operated, with a 2.98% increase in the first ten days. In the latter half of the month, the n-butanol market fluctuated, but at the end of the month, the n-butanol market rapidly rose and then slightly declined, with an increase of 3.72% in the latter half of the month and an overall increase of 6.81% in May.

Entering June, the overall upward trend of the n-butanol market in Shandong region continued, and the focus of negotiations on n-butanol continued to approach high levels. Some factories closed without reporting, and the market’s upward trend spread. On the 7th, the opening price of n-butanol large factories increased by 600 yuan/ton, driving a broad increase in the market situation, with a daily increase of 6.58%.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ June 7th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 9200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 9200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 9700-9800 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 9400-9500 yuan/ton

Analysis of market factors for n-butanol in May

In terms of demand: In May, the overall downstream demand for n-butanol performed well, with a mild market inquiry atmosphere and an overall increase in new orders. In June, the downstream demand continued to improve, with some downstream raw material inventories remaining low. The overall procurement atmosphere was active, and the demand side provided support for n-butanol.

In terms of supply: In May, the overall supply of n-butanol decreased, and some n-butanol plants were shut down for maintenance. The supply of n-butanol factories was tight, and inventory was low. In addition, some factories received export orders, which further added to the tight spot situation in the n-butanol market. In June, the tight supply situation of n-butanol remained, so the supply side also provided impetus support for the rise of the n-butanol market.

Future analysis

At present, n-butanol as a whole is operating at a high level, and the dual support of supply and demand is driving the market price of n-butanol to gradually approach a high level. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, effective support for n-butanol on the market still exists, and the future market will continue to be mainly stable, medium, and strong. In the long run, the continuous increase in costs will bring significant cost pressure to downstream users. Downstream users may regulate their operating levels, and the long-term n-butanol market may experience a pullback. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price trend of domestic fluorite continued to rise in May, with an average price of 3806.25 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.57% compared to the price of 3675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 21.07%.

Supply side: Some mines have safety inspections, and the supply of fluorite is tight

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will continue to be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments will carry out rectification and renovation of fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. In addition, an accident at a certain mine in Jiangxi has caused some mines in the region to undergo safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite goods is tight, and the price trend of fluorite continued to rise in May.

On the demand side, hydrofluoric acid can be purchased as needed and refrigerant can still be started

In May, domestic hydrofluoric acid first rose and then fell, and overall, the price remained stable. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China increased to 11200-116700 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable in May. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is average, and some devices are still in shutdown recently. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal. The price of hydrofluoric acid is dragging down the domestic fluorite market, and some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, limiting the growth of the domestic fluorite market.

In May, the price trend of downstream refrigerants in the terminal market increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry did not change much. Recently, there has been an increase in dealer purchases, and the price trend of R22 has increased. The mainstream of negotiations is between 26000 and 28000 yuan/ton. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has started, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The sales situation of R134a in China is average, and the market in May is relatively stable. Currently, the market price of R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good. Recently, the prices of some other refrigerant products have risen, which has affected the upward trend of the fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market is declining, and the demand for downstream refrigerant industry is gradually weakening. Both long and short factors are affecting the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will remain high and volatile in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate showed an overall downward trend in May. On May 31st, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 104400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% compared to the average price of 108400 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 31st, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 109400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.2% compared to the average price of 115400 yuan/ton on May 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the lithium carbonate spot market performed relatively calmly during the May Day holiday in early May, and there was a slight increase in market resumption prices after the holiday. In terms of supply, some lithium salt companies still maintain a positive attitude towards selling individual orders. Due to the rise in the market price of lithium carbonate futures, some lithium salt companies have slightly increased their prices for individual orders. In addition, with the continuous increase in imported lithium carbonate from January to April, domestic lithium carbonate imports may show an upward trend around May, which will provide a supplement to the domestic market supply.

In terms of demand, downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes have already prepared their goods in advance before the May Day holiday, and their raw material inventory is sufficient to support production orders for a period of time in the future. Additionally, some of the purchased goods have arrived during the holiday. Downstream enterprises tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, and the market transaction situation is relatively flat. Downstream material suppliers may adopt a strategy of purchasing at lower prices at the current price.

In mid to late May, the price of lithium carbonate showed a stepwise downward trend. In terms of supply, the domestic production of lithium carbonate continued to increase from April to May. The production in April increased by 23% month on month, coupled with an increase in imported goods and recent arrivals to ports, resulting in a significant increase in lithium carbonate supply and continuous market supply pressure. In a state of relatively sufficient market supply, although lithium salt production enterprises are still relatively conservative in individual unit prices, they have slightly lowered their prices in response to market sentiment, and some traders have also simultaneously lowered their prices.

In terms of demand, some downstream positive electrode enterprises have made a small amount of bulk purchases in the context of price fluctuations. However, some downstream enterprises still do not have the willingness to replenish spot inventory due to their sufficient inventory of lithium carbonate, increased customer supply, and stable long-term contracts. Subsequently, the market was at the negotiation point of the long-term agreement in June, and most downstream enterprises were cautious and cautious about the current fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices. Although the market had good enthusiasm for inquiry, the actual outcome was not ideal. In addition, the production of ternary materials has decreased month on month, and the demand for iron and lithium has remained stable. Some large factories have reduced production, resulting in a weakening of downstream demand.

The weak consolidation and operation of the lithium hydroxide market, with slightly weak cost support in the first half of the year, and a decrease in downstream demand. Most downstream ternary enterprises mainly consume inventory, with moderate demand for high nickel. The market inquiry atmosphere is still good, but there is a clear wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials, and actual transactions are flat. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak. In the second half of the year, the cost support was average, with the supply side industry operating at a low level and the demand side performing poorly. The market supply was mainly based on long-term contract orders, with limited individual transactions. The pace of market trading slowed down, and the lithium hydroxide market remained weak and stable.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is weak and downward, while the upstream price of lithium carbonate is mainly weak and lacks support on the cost side. The focus of market negotiations is relatively low, and inventory remains at a high level. Market supply pressure continues, and some factories have a strong willingness to compromise prices, leading to a continued downward shift in spot prices. In the short term, lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures in May rose slightly but fell significantly, with a volatile trend supported by bearish fundamentals and macro sentiment. On May 31st, the opening price of the LC2407 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 106000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 107200 yuan/ton and a closing price of 104850 yuan/ton. The daily decline was 1.27%, with a trading volume of 102600 lots and a position of 161329 lots.

According to a lithium carbonate analyst from Business Society, the current lithium carbonate market continues to be competitive, and some upstream lithium salt factories still choose to maintain a certain price stance at the end of the month. At the end of May, the downstream market still showed lower willingness to purchase spot goods due to its high inventory, long-term cooperation, and high customer supply. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain in a wait-and-see situation in the short term and maintain a low consolidation.

Price: 2950 yuan/ton

Analysis: On June 3rd, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily decline in the main production area of Shandong is 4.84%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown a loose performance. Coupled with the low urea prices of manufacturers, the amount of ammonia converted has increased, and the increase in ammonia volume has dragged down the price of ammonia. Today, some mainstream large factories in Shandong have generally lowered their prices by as much as 200-300 yuan/ton. Dealers tend to lower their shipments. Moreover, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is gradually entering the off-season, industrial demand remains strong, and the demand side is generally bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2800-3000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement has slowed down and supply is sufficient. It is expected that liquid ammonia will remain weak in the near future, and it is not ruled out that prices may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend:

The PTFE market remained stable and declined in May. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the benchmark price of polytetrafluoroethylene in Shengyishe was 43000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.53% compared to the beginning of this month (43666.67 yuan/ton).

2、 Influencing factors:

Raw material side: High market prices are under pressure, and production enterprises have thin profits. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyishe is 11620.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month. The operation of hydrofluoric acid plants has not changed much, and some manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid have accumulated inventory. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated in various regions of China is 11200-11700 yuan/ton, and there are still units waiting for market shutdown. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the operation of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. The overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend remained stable in May.

Downstream end: There is no favorable phenomenon in the downstream market, and there is insufficient purchasing sentiment, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. At present, the polytetrafluoroethylene market is in a sustained downturn.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The polytetrafluoroethylene analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the high prices of raw materials will support, downstream demand will be weak and continue to be sluggish, and the polytetrafluoroethylene market will operate weakly and steadily.

Price trend

The market for epichlorohydrin fell in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% compared to the price on May 1st (the reference price for epoxy chloropropane was 8200.00 yuan/ton).

Cause analysis

In terms of cost:

In May, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 29th, the price of propylene was 6860.6 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.88% compared to the price of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st. Raw material glycerol, downstream demand is cold, procurement is not active, and the market is weak and stable in May. In May, the price of epichlorohydrin remained low, and the cost support for glycerol production was average, while profits for propylene production enterprises were limited.

In terms of supply:

Within May, there were instances of device restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. Under cost pressures, production enterprises had low enthusiasm to start production, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate was around 50%. Supply faced limited market support.

In terms of demand:

The demand side led the downward trend in May. The support for terminal demand is weak, mainly due to the downstream epoxy resin digestion inventory stage. The follow-up situation for epichlorohydrin is not good, mainly focusing on selecting low small orders for rigid demand. Enterprises have poor shipments, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. Enterprises are offering discounts to promote transactions, resulting in increased competition for low prices in the market.

Future Market Forecast:

In summary, the demand remained sluggish in May, and the imbalance between supply and demand dragged down the price of epichlorohydrin. However, the high cost to some extent limited the magnitude of the price decline. In the future, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene may consolidate at a high level, and short-term cost pressure may continue; On the other hand, downstream demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is light, with no significant improvement in the short term. The cost is high, the demand is weak, and it is expected that the market situation for epichlorohydrin may be weak in the short term, but the downward space may be limited, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 1st to 29th, 2024, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fluctuated and rose, with a market price of 262910 yuan/ton on the 1st and 279210 yuan/ton on the 29th, a monthly increase of 6.2%.

On May 28th, the base metal index was 1392 points, an increase of 18 points from yesterday, a decrease of 13.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 116.82% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 28th, the tin commodity index was 142.13, an increase of 3.44 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.28% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 231.61% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In the first half of May, the tin ingot market showed a weak and volatile trend, with poor macro employment data from the United States and a volatile trend in the non-ferrous metal market. The Shanghai tin market followed the overall trend. In terms of supply and demand, there is still a weak supply-demand relationship, especially on the demand side, as the market continued to rise at the end of April, downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, and the demand remained weak due to the need to replenish inventory. After entering mid May, the macro performance improved, and the non-ferrous metal market generally rebounded, driving the tin market to rapidly rise and maintain a period of high volatility. But as tin prices do not count as rising, high prices have suppressed actual downstream demand. Currently, downstream procurement intentions are more wait-and-see, and the overall situation remains to replenish inventory as needed.

In terms of supply and demand: The situation of tight supply at the mining end still exists, and currently, smelting enterprises in the main production areas are maintaining normal production. The overall domestic supply is relatively stable, and the overall performance of the supply side is relatively stable. In terms of demand, with the rise of tin prices, downstream procurement enthusiasm in the market is low, but solder companies have been steadily improving in recent times, and future demand expectations are still promising. Overall, the supply is expected to be stable and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to maintain stable, medium to strong operation in the short term.

Related data:

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of China’s semiconductor industry surged by 40% in the first quarter of 2024. In March alone, the national integrated circuit production reached 36.2 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, setting a new historical high.

The report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2024, global refined tin production was 31300 tons, consumption was 24300 tons, and there was an oversupply of 7000 tons. From January to March 2024, the global refined tin production was 89600 tons, with a consumption of 74100 tons and an oversupply of 15500 tons. In March 2024, the global tin ore production was 27000 tons. From January to March 2024, the global tin ore production was 78900 tons.

The price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the domestic quotation for isobutyraldehyde was 8675 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.40% from the price of 7650 yuan/ton on May 1st. Low inventory of isobutyraldehyde manufacturers, resulting in a significant increase in isobutyraldehyde prices in May; Downstream demand support, manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship, and the price of isobutyraldehyde has significantly increased.

The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and consolidates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the price of propylene was 6824.6 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.35% compared to the price of 6800.6 yuan/ton on May 1st. Crude oil prices are weakly consolidating, propylene cost support is weakening, propylene price increases are weak, propylene units are restarting and increasing, propylene supply is sufficient, downstream procurement enthusiasm is limited, propylene enterprises are generally selling, and propylene prices are fluctuating and consolidating. Cost support still exists, with limited support for the rise of isobutyraldehyde.

Downstream favorable support increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the quotation for new pentanediol was 10700 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.36% compared to the quotation of 9966.67 yuan/ton on May 1st. The quotation of new pentanediol enterprises has significantly increased, with Yantai Wanhua’s new pentanediol price rising to 11100-11300 yuan/ton, and Luxi Chemical’s new pentanediol quotation of 9850 yuan/ton. Cost support is strong, and the new pentanediol market is operating stronger. The inventory of new pentanediol factories is low, and the order is currently scheduled for next month. The supply of goods on site is tight, and the inquiry atmosphere is strong. Traders are reluctant to sell in stock, resulting in an increase in the market price of new pentanediol.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the price of raw material propylene fluctuates and consolidates, and the support for the increase in isobutyraldehyde cost is weakened; In terms of supply and demand, the supply of isobutyraldehyde is tightening, and the price of isobutyraldehyde is rising; The price of neopentyl glycol has significantly increased, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and demand support for isobutyraldehyde is limited. In the future, cost support still exists, supply and demand are tight, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises are more willing to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels in the future.

The sponge titanium market has been operating steadily this week. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (54750.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of raw materials, the high price of titanium concentrate has put pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises have suffered losses, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of magnesium in Shengyishe was 18733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.36% compared to the beginning of this month (18666.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream titanium material market demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is cold.

Post forecast:

Due to the high prices in the raw material market, magnesium ingot prices have increased, sponge titanium production capacity has been continuously released, and production has increased. However, downstream market demand is weak, and the transaction atmosphere is cold, presenting a state of supply-demand imbalance. According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, the sponge titanium market is expected to operate steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has decreased this week. On May 24th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3300 yuan/ton on May 20th, a decrease of 3.03% during the week and a decrease of 1.54% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market was weak. With the resumption of operation of some maintenance equipment, the inventory of manufacturers has increased. In order to promote the reduction of acetic acid quotations for inventory, and at the same time, downstream resistance to high priced sources of goods has led to low enthusiasm for entering the market and purchasing goods. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the mentality of manufacturers is empty. The focus of acetic acid trading has once again shifted downwards.

As of May 24th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ May 20th/ May 24th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ -50

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ -50

Shandong region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ -100

Jiangsu region/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ -75

Zhejiang region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3225 yuan/ton/ -75

The upstream raw material methanol market has fallen from a high level. On May 24th, the average price in the domestic market was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.94% compared to the price of 3020 yuan/ton on May 20th. The early maintenance equipment has been gradually restored, the situation of imported goods arriving at the port has been alleviated, port inventory has rebounded, and the social stock of the methanol market is gradually increasing. Downstream, demand orders are mainly in demand, and the market supply is clearly oversupplied. The prices of methanol in ports and mainland China continue to decline.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is operating weakly. On May 24th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5525.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% compared to the price of 5587.50 yuan/ton on May 20th. The upstream acetic acid market is weak and downward, with weak cost support for acetic anhydride. The supply of acetic anhydride market is sufficient, downstream production is stable, on-site trading follows up as needed, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is average. The upstream market has driven the price of acetic anhydride to decline.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the inventory pressure of acetic acid enterprises is still acceptable, the sales pressure of manufacturers is weakened, downstream demand continues to be weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market to purchase goods is average. On market trading is limited, and under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be wait-and-see consolidation, with prices possibly fluctuating narrowly. In the future, attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.