1、 Price trend

In March 2020, the coke market continued to decline. The main market price in Shanxi Province was 1716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1563.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 8.93%.

On March 31, the coke commodity index was 82.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.23% from 135.04 (2018-09-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 136.83% from 34.65, the lowest point on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of business association, as of 31, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1730 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1790 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1770 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong is 1690 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of primary metallurgical coke is 1750 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1750 yuan / ton The mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1590 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1640 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang is 1630 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1690 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1660 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1720 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of grade II metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of grade I metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei is 1680 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1730 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua, Sichuan is 1830 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui, Guizhou is 1830 yuan / ton In 1920 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market is 1350 yuan / ton. The port trade of primary metallurgical coke is about 1950 yuan / ton, the trade of quasi primary metallurgical coke is about 1850 yuan / ton, and the trade of secondary metallurgical coke is about 1750 yuan / ton.

Import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China exported 360000 tons of coke from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 million tons, or 74.21%. The export volume of coke in January February was 90.48 million US dollars.

Product: the coke market continued to decline this month, down three times, accumulatively down 150 yuan / ton. By the end of 31, the main transaction price of quasi first grade wet quenching coke in Shanxi was about 1550-1650 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this month, due to the start-up of downstream steel plants has not fully recovered, the demand for coke is limited, and the price of coke has declined. After the middle and late ten days, the steel plant gradually returned to work, mainly purchasing coke on demand. In April, the environmental protection and production restriction will be in place in Hebei Province. In April, the iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of a and B in Tangshan city will not limit production. The iron and steel enterprises with performance evaluation of C will implement hierarchical control. The demand of the steel plant is limited, and there is no strong support for coke. The coke enterprises have stable start-up, and the price is slightly lower.

Upstream and downstream: in March, from the perspective of steel market, the firmness of raw material price and the decline of finished product price put great pressure on the profits of steel mills. Although there is still a profit margin of 87.78% (survey data of 247 steel mills in China), the overall profit level is low. According to the data of CISA, from January to February, member steel enterprises realized a year-on-year drop of 6.04% in sales revenue, a year-on-year drop of 35.8% in profits, and a year-on-year drop of 1.09% in sales profit margin of only 2.35%. It can be seen that its profit is expected to decrease even more at the industry level in March.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, the price of bulk commodities in the list of energy sector rose one commodity month on month, with LNG (7.42%) rising. There are 15 commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 13 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 81.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were WTI crude oil (- 57.34%), Brent crude oil (- 48.93%) and liquefied gas (- 26.85%), with an average increase or decrease of – 19.01% this month.

3、 Future forecast

In the follow-up, we will focus on the operating rate and price trend of the steel plant. With the gradual recovery of domestic production, the demand for coke has risen steadily, and the price of coke still has support for a long time.

1、 Price trend

Recently, caprolactam has fallen in a row, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list. On March 18, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 10266 yuan / ton, on March 27, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 9266 yuan / ton, and the price fell 9.74% on March 10. On March 27, the caprolactam commodity index was 46.61, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new low in the cycle, 53.39% lower than the highest point of 100.00 on March 2, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2017-03-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: crude oil plummeted, cost was under heavy pressure, caprolactam fell continuously. Up to now, the price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 9000 yuan / ton, cash is delivered from the factory, the capacity of the manufacturer is 300000 tons, and the actual transaction can be discussed. The price of Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid is 9800 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit is in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 450000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 9200 yuan / ton, and the 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and accepted.

Industrial chain: the price focus of raw material pure benzene has moved down again, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly. Sinopec sharply lowered the listing price of pure benzene on August 18 and 19, with a total decrease of 1450 yuan / ton, or 28.63%. At the beginning of the month, the average listing price of pure benzene was 5380.2 yuan / ton, and on the 20th, the average listing price was 3840 yuan / ton, down 28.63%. Imports of pure benzene fell sharply, the market negative mentality is heavier. Downstream products were dragged down by weak terminal demand, inventory release was slow, and the pure benzene market continued to be negative.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of caprolactam, a business association, believe that the pure benzene market follows the decline due to the fall of international oil price, and the cost side of caprolactam has been greatly explored. The market is in wait-and-see mood, and downstream demand weakens. It is expected that the market of caprolactam will be dominated by weak and sluggish operation in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cobalt rose for three days in a row this week, after which the price of cobalt fell in shock, and the market of cobalt was adjusted in shock this week. As of March 30, the price of cobalt was 250833.33 yuan / ton, down 1.95% compared with the average price of 255833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the market of cobalt was adjusted.

2、 Congo cobaltite production

The Democratic Republic of Congo will impose a 48 hour blockade on Haut Katanga (upper Katanga), a major copper and cobalt producing province, on Sunday.

Brazzaville, March 23 – Glencore’s KCC copper company in the Republic of Congo shut down 26 workers Monday, a union official said.

The blockade of cobalt by the DRC and the stoppage of Cobalt workers have a negative impact on the production of cobalt, and the supply of cobalt in the aftermarket is stable, forming a fog. Cobalt price has a certain upward momentum.

6、 Future prospects

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, Congo blocked cobalt mines, and Glencore’s Cobalt projects also had workers shut down, which led to a decrease in cobalt supply and a decrease in global cobalt supply. Moreover, due to the weakness of Congo’s medical system, there is a greater risk of production suspension of cobalt mines in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of cobalt supply in the future, which has a certain positive impact on the rise of cobalt prices. This week, cobalt prices rose Affected by this message. However, the global economic environment is weak, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined sharply, the sales of 5g products such as mobile phones have declined sharply, and the demand of cobalt market has declined seriously. In the absence of clear evidence to show a sharp decline in cobalt supply, the cobalt market is still in oversupply, the driving force of cobalt price rise is insufficient, the cobalt price is not enough support, and the cobalt price fluctuates and falls.

On the whole, the demand of future cobalt market is not good, the rising power of cobalt market is insufficient, and the price of cobalt is difficult to keep rising. But at the same time, the supply risk of cobalt ore is relatively high. In the future, the short-term supply may be insufficient, which is good for cobalt market. It is expected that the price of cobalt in the future will fluctuate slightly, mainly to maintain stability.

Commodity index: on March 26, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 92.08, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.05% from 107.13 (2019-05-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 0.53% from 91.59, the lowest point on March 9, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on March 27, 2020, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (cation) market is about 14800-16000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (anion) market is about 8000-11500 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain:

Upstream: from January to March 2020, the mainstream price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market continued to decrease. At the beginning of January, the quotation was about 11200 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 100 yuan / ton for many times; in the middle of the year, the quotation continued to decline slightly, which was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 10650 yuan / ton for three times; by the end of the decade, the decline had been about 4000 yuan / ton, with a fluctuation of about 20%; on February 21, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton, decreased by 200 yuan / ton on 24, decreased by 300 yuan / ton on 27, and decreased by 150 yuan / ton to 8850 yuan / ton on 28 , 1750-1800 yuan / ton lower than before, about 17% lower than before; in March, acrylonitrile continued to decrease, to 8100 yuan / ton on the 10th, to 8150 yuan / ton by Sinopec since March, to 1350 yuan / ton monthly; Shanghai Secco quoted 8000 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton weekly.

Downstream: at present, the impact of downstream water treatment project construction enterprises has not been completely eliminated, the construction is still not restored much, and the demand needs to be restored in a few days.

Manufacturer: the manufacturer’s return to work and production is in good condition, the inventory is being consumed in succession, the current downstream demand is limited, and the raw material cost has been reduced.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work. At present, the logistics in March is back to normal, and the inventory is constantly consumed. It is reported that the logistics cost in some areas has increased since, and the quotation has increased during the period of less vehicle return to work due to the delay in construction, etc. However, after a large number of logistics enterprises go to work in the near future, the transportation cost has been reduced, most of the downstream construction is in the negotiation stage, and the demand still needs to be recovered in time.

Future market forecast: the analysis of the business community shows that the price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been continuously reduced, and the current price is the low price for many years; the cost of polyacrylamide has been greatly reduced, the transportation cost has returned to normal, and the manufacturer’s shipping price has been loosened. In the process of downstream construction recovery, there are many in the negotiation stage, some of them are still stagnant. It is expected that the market price of Polyacrylamide in the future will be stable, and some of them will have some preferential space.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices rose sharply. On March 25, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8266.67 yuan / ton, and on March 26, the average price was 9400 yuan / ton, with a sharp increase of 13.71%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: isopropanol started to rise on March 13, and the price soared. Today, the domestic isopropanol market price increase is the highest ever, with individual manufacturers increasing as much as 1100 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. At present, isopropanol in the United States and Europe continues to rise sharply, and isopropanol exports continue to increase. From March 20, 2020, the export tax rebate of isopropanol will be increased from 10% to 13%, which will increase the external competitive advantage of isopropanol. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 9000-9300 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu Province is 8800-9500 yuan / ton. In terms of the current international situation, the European market has a high demand for disinfectant and other resources, and traders and buyers have turned to Asia to purchase isopropanol, which indirectly pushed up the price of domestic isopropanol market.

Industry chain: the upstream acetone market is mainly stable, with the current quotation of 4450-4500 yuan / ton in East China; 4700 yuan / ton in Shandong; 4650 yuan / ton for the temporary stable operation in surrounding areas of Yanshan; 4750 yuan / ton in South China. The market price of propylene in Shandong Province has risen slightly. At present, the market turnover is 5750-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 5800 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of isopropanol from the chemical branch of business society think that the surge of isopropanol is due to a large amount of demand in the export market, especially in Europe and the United States where the demand for disinfectants is rising, the export volume of isopropanol will not decrease in the short term, which is good for the domestic market. Pay more attention to the change of message surface in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on March 16, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium in China was 2200 yuan / ton, and on March 20, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium in China was 2225 yuan / ton, rising steadily this week. So far, the DAP commodity index on March 23 is 66.37, which is the same as yesterday, 35.55% lower than 102.98 (2011-10-08), the highest point in the cycle, and 1.14% higher than 65.62, the lowest point on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: the return to work rate of Hubei enterprises has increased significantly. At present, 64% of main diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2250 yuan / ton, 64% of main diammonium in Shandong Province 2500 yuan / ton, 64% of main diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2450-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of main diammonium in Anhui Province 2200-2250 yuan / ton. The price of arriving station in Heilongjiang is 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the domestic phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly. Based on several sample areas, the reference price of the initial high-end 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 330-440 yuan / ton. The sulfur production price in East China was 653.33 yuan / ton, up 1.03%. The downstream enterprises related to sulfur industry resumed work, and the domestic sulfur market rose slightly.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 11th week of 2020 (3.16-3.20), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 3.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are isopropanol (26.40%), acetic anhydride (6.37%) and dichloromethane (5.38%). There are 39 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 17.60%), chloroform (- 15.79%) and crude benzene (- 14.52%). This week’s average was – 1.62%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of business association think that the price tends to be stable after the recent rise of diammonium phosphate. The enterprise’s operating rate keeps rising, the spot supply is sufficient, and the number of new downstream purchase orders decreases. It is expected that the price rise of diammonium phosphate will be postponed in the later stage and the stable operation will be the main trend.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride rose this week. As of March 23, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 5012.50 yuan / ton, up 300.00 yuan / ton from 4712.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 6.37% this week, and down 16.92% from the same period last year. This week, the demand for acetic anhydride rose, the market recovered, and the price of acetic anhydride rose.

2、 Market analysis:

Product analysis:

This week, the price of acetic anhydride rose continuously, the demand for acetic anhydride recovered, and the price of acetic anhydride rose. At present, the price of acetic anhydride in North China is about 4900-5200 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is about 4700 yuan / ton.

Industry chain factor analysis:

In March, the price of acetic anhydride rose in shock, the price of raw material acetic acid rose in shock, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose. Acetic acid enterprises have increased maintenance, acetic acid production has decreased, acetic acid price has a certain upward momentum, and acetic anhydride cost has increased, which is good for acetic anhydride market in the future.

It can be seen from the up and down chart of the industrial chain that although the price of acetic acid has risen slightly, the price of methanol is still in the down range, and the cost of acetic anhydride plays a general supporting role in the market of acetic anhydride, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride is general.

3、 Future forecast:

According to Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of acetic anhydride data of business association, the recent slight rise in acetic anhydride cost is good for the future market of acetic anhydride, but at the same time, the rise in acetic anhydride cost is limited, and the driving force for the rise in acetic anhydride price is insufficient. In terms of demand, the demand for acetic anhydride has increased, which is good for acetic anhydride market. As a whole, the cost of acetic anhydride in the aftermarket has increased, the demand has picked up, and the market of acetic anhydride has picked up.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell sharply this week (March 16-20)

The price of MTBE this weekend was 3300 yuan / ton, down 11.61% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the international crude oil price continues to drop sharply, the gasoline market price follows the drop and falls, and the domestic MTBE price drops sharply in this cycle.

Industry chain: crude oil futures prices continue to fall sharply, the gasoline market is on a passive wait-and-see basis, and gasoline demand is gradually increasing. However, under the drag of crude oil slump, intermediate traders and downstream customers are mainly on a wait-and-see basis, with gasoline market prices plummeting 9.99% this week.

MTBE Market: at 24:00 on the 17th, the price of domestic refined oil fell to the floor price, the domestic oil price fell sharply, and the demand for gasoline terminals is still recovering, while MTBE just needs to perform generally. At present, the crude oil market is still facing the pressure of further decline, and domestic market players are still mainly waiting for the consumption of oil. Meanwhile, alkylated oil fell 15.00% month on month this week. MTBE market prices are down this week.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, MTBE price has fallen to a new low in history. Although there is still a risk of falling international oil price, there is not much room for falling MTBE market price in the near future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has shown a downward trend in recent days. The average price of ethylene on the 19th was 653.25 US dollars / ton, down 5.39% compared with the price of 690.50 US dollars / ton on the 16th, and the current price is down 35.69% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 19th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $620-630 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $565-575 / T. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell. As of 19, the market price of ethylene in Europe was US $763-773 / T for FD northwest Europe and US $701-705 / T for CIF northwest Europe. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region has declined. As of the 19th, the price is US $253-259 / ton. Overall, in recent years, the market of ethylene in Europe and the United States has been in a downward trend, constantly refreshing the lowest point, and the whole ethylene market has been in a downward trend. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on March 18, New York Mercantile futures exchange West Texas light oil futures settlement price in April 2020 was $20.37 per barrel, down $6.85 or 24.4% compared with the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude oil futures settlement price in May 2020 was $24.88 per barrel, down $3.85 or 13.4% compared with the previous trading day. At present, there is no bad news in the crude oil market The supply side and the demand side tend to be negative oil prices, the global financial market risk increases, the risk asset price downward becomes the trend, which can not play a supporting role in the price of ethylene, and the external market of ethylene keeps falling again. The downstream styrene price also fell sharply, and the ethanol market was consolidated after a sharp drop, which could not support the ethylene price, and there is a possibility of further follow-up.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the ethylene analyst of business Chemical Branch, the prevalence of public health events has intensified people’s blockade measures against the government to curb the spread of the epidemic, which may lead to a sharp contraction of economic activities, unable to support the price of ethylene, so the data analyst of business club predicted that the price of ethylene would keep a narrow decline in the future.

The impact of social public events on coal upstream production enterprises has been basically eliminated, but the downstream demand is still far behind the same period of previous years. However, the positive factors of coal ash market gradually appear, and there is a long-term cooperative mechanism to support the bottom, so it is not suitable to be over bearish.

Recently, the long and short factors interweave, and the decline of power coal price has slowed down. However, the recovery of demand is not as expected, and the international market continues to fall, and the price of power coal still faces greater downward pressure.

Basically eliminate the impact of social public events

At present, the low operating rate of the coal industry has improved, especially the large-scale coal enterprises resume full load production. According to the data of China coal market network, the capacity utilization rate of the sample coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia (with a total capacity of 1.55 billion tons, accounting for 70% of the total capacity of the three regions) tested is 82.7%, which is close to the level of the same period in previous years. The supply of the production area continued to increase, the quotation of mine mouth fell, the price of coal in some areas had fallen to the level at the end of 2019, the price of refined oil had fallen due to the superposition of road toll reduction and crude oil slump, and the cost of railway transportation and port miscellaneous expenses had been reduced, the space for traders to operate had increased, the situation of transportation outside the production area was good, and the supply of underground coal was further guaranteed to be sufficient.

However, since February, coal mine safety accidents have occurred frequently in Shandong, Yunnan and Henan. Recently, the video conference on Further Strengthening the current work safety of resumption of work and resumption of production held by the office of the safety committee of the State Council and the emergency management department stressed that we should pay close attention to high-risk risks such as high gas, rockburst, large shift coal mine and “head pond” tailings pond, strengthen safety precautions, strictly abide by the safety bottom line, and effectively curb the occurrence of major accidents. With the follow-up of safety supervision and inspection, the awareness of coal safety production is more strong. In addition, the continuous decline of coal price will form a certain inhibition on coal production, so the mine side may take the initiative to reduce production.

Import restrictions escalated

According to customs data, the coal import volume from January to February 2020 is 68.06 million tons, up 33% year on year. The import volume increased rapidly, overdrawn the import quota. Recently, the import policy has been gradually tightened. Compared with last year, the import quota of large power generation groups has been reduced by 20-30%, and that of some local power plants has been reduced by nearly half. Recently, Xinsha customs orally informed that ships arriving at the port after March 16 are prohibited from discharging Xinsha, because the declared amount of imported coal in Xinsha as of March 16 has reached the quota of 6.5 million tons set by the customs years ago. Whether the follow-up regulatory policy is adjusted will wait for the notice of the customs.

However, at present, the southern power plant is limited by inventory, the purchase of imported coal is not active, and the purchase in the North has not increased significantly. In the short term, import restrictions have limited impact on the market. However, with the gradual resumption of production of steel and cement enterprises in the south, the industrial enterprises that used to mainly import coal as raw materials will be impacted, or have to increase the purchase of coal in the production area. Whether the potential favorable factors at the import end can play a role of boosting, we need to pay attention to the production dynamics of industrial enterprises after public events.

Demand recovery is less than expected

Despite the annual investment plans announced by many provinces, the new infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, and the central bank’s targeted reduction of standards is intended to improve the impact of public events on the domestic economy and restore normal production order of enterprises. However, from the data feedback from the power plant, the demand side recovery is not optimistic. As of March 17, the daily coal consumption of six coastal power plants was 518200 tons, which was over 500000 tons, which was over 20% lower than that of the previous year. In the first ten days of March, the daily coal consumption of national key power plants was also over 14% lower. The demand side’s performance is not as expected, which puts great pressure on the market. Moreover, when there is no obvious consumption in the downstream high inventory, it is difficult for the demand side to bring a positive boost. In the later stage, with the end of heating power demand, coal consumption focuses on industrial power demand.

Generally speaking, the impact of social public events on coal upstream production enterprises has been basically eliminated, but the downstream demand is still far behind the level of the same period of previous years, with loose supply and weak power coal price oscillation. The main contract is exploring the support of 535 yuan / ton lower than before. However, the positive factors gradually appear, and there is a long-term cooperative mechanism to support the bottom, should not be over bearish. In the medium term, we will wait for further fermentation of favorable factors, especially focusing on the recovery of industrial demand.