According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 25th to December 2nd, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9675 yuan/ton to 9725 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.52% during the cycle. This week, the domestic butadiene market has slightly rebounded. At the beginning of last week, the arrival situation in the East China region was not good, and the supply expectations in the spot market were tight. Encouraged by this news, the spot market quotations generally rose. However, downstream demand remains weak, with poor purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market. Overall, the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market rose first and then stabilized during the week, while Sinopec still implemented a price of 9800 yuan/ton. As of November 29th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is 9850 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market in November was mainly volatile, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month, and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market situation did not change much. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 9800 yuan/ton as of the 28th, a cumulative decrease of 2600 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 12400 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is operating stably, and there are currently no plans to export goods today. Therefore, quotations are temporarily suspended.

The 30000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical is operating normally. Today, 400 tons were exported, with a bid price of 9200 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 9250 yuan/ton.

The 200000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin is operating stably, with normal export supply of 112 tons. The bidding bottom price is 9210 yuan/ton, and the transaction is 9320 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.12% from 15580 yuan/ton at the beginning of November. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, but overall it remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Within the month, the supply price of butadiene rubber has gradually decreased. As of November 29th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yangtze, Daqing, and Sichuan in East China is between 13150 and 13650 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak. Port cargo sources have continued to accumulate recently, and new facilities in Shandong have been put into operation. The market expects loose supply in the future, and the supply side is bearish. In terms of demand, the overall downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, providing essential support for the butadiene market. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.