Ethylene glycol prices fall in November
The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4591.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.
On November 29, 2024, the operating price of the port ethylene glycol spot contract was between 4615-4650 yuan/ton. The basis of the port ethylene glycol spot contract remained stable during the day, with early opening spot prices ranging from+46 to+48 this week. The basis slightly increased during the day, with little fluctuation. At noon, the basis was+48 to+50 this week,+48 to+51 next week, and+53 to+54 in December.
After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many goods, and market trading was relatively weak.
On November 29th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4200 to 4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On November 28, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was 536 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 546 US dollars/ton.
November ethylene glycol fundamentals: strong supply and weak demand
The domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol has increased month on month, and the operating rate has remained relatively high. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.
Domestic supply increases, squeezing import demand
The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol in ports is still relatively low, mainly due to the increase in domestic supply, which squeezes import demand.
From January to October 2024, the cumulative import of ethylene glycol was 5.425 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%. Among them, imports in October were 498600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%.
According to explicit inventory data from ports, as of November 28th, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 508800 tons, a decrease of 51400 tons from last Thursday; It is reported that the main reason for the delay in unloading is due to weather conditions and the closure of the port. There is a strong expectation that ethylene glycol will gradually enter the trend of accumulating inventory in December.
Future expectations
The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have been at a low level recently, and the support from the cost side is relatively insufficient. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.
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