According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market maintained a volatile downward trend in November. As of November 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4741 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24% from the beginning of the month.

Multiple PTA units have increased their load within the month, with ample supply in the spot market and lackluster downstream demand. PTA is mainly driven by rigid demand. The fluctuating geopolitical situation and wide fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided a certain boost to PTA costs. Under the game of weak fundamentals and cost support, PTA prices have adjusted downward overall.

Looking at the future market, PTA processing fees were still acceptable in November, but PTA factory equipment maintenance intentions were low. As of the end of the month, the industry’s operating rate had increased to around 90%. There is currently no equipment maintenance plan in December, and a new production capacity of 2.7 million tons is planned to be put into operation in East China, so there will be sufficient supply of goods in the future. In addition, due to the seasonal off-season of downstream polyester, the demand for PTA may weaken, and the supply and demand structure is still weak, making it difficult to improve in the short term. The expectation of PTA inventory accumulation in the later stage is strong.

The international oil price market was mainly volatile in November, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market remained relatively stable. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.

At present, the adjustment of crude oil prices has limited driving guidance for the PX market. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, domestic supply will continue to operate at high load and stability. The annual inspection units of Ningbo Daxie and Fujian United Power Plant will be restarted in December. However, there is currently no clear expectation of maintenance for downstream PTA units, and some units are scheduled for restart and load increase. At the same time, Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million tons of PTA new production capacity is about to be put into operation, so there are signs of a slowdown in the domestic PX supply and demand contradiction.

The downstream polyester industry has maintained a production rate of 88%, and the market has gradually entered the traditional off-season of demand. In the later stage, there is a high probability of a decline in demand, and speculation and rigid demand buying are not good. In the terminal textile market, domestic weaving sales gradually weakened in November, while foreign trade partially rebounded. As the end of the month approaches, most weaving factories have indicated a significant downturn in the market, with an outstanding order volume of around one month. A few weaving factories have stated that they have sufficient orders to meet the end of the year. Foreign trade home textile orders and simulated silk orders from the Middle East have been issued in bulk, but weaving factories generally indicate that prices are low.

Business analysts believe that under the current processing fees, there are fewer plans for PTA follow-up equipment maintenance, and the overall supply in December is relatively loose. The downstream lacks confidence in the future market, and the enthusiasm for stocking up is average, with subsequent or urgent purchases being the main focus. The overall atmosphere is weak, and there is no obvious positive driving force in the market. Against the backdrop of intensified supply-demand contradictions, the PTA price trend will still be sluggish.