According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the low-end prices of TDI in the East China region have tightened this week, with a slight increase in prices. As of December 13th, the average market price in East China was 12900 yuan/ton, and as of December 9th, the average price was 12800 yuan/ton. Within the week, it rose by 0.87% and fell by 22.29% year-on-year.

This week, the TDI market was significantly boosted by news, with supply tightening and traders selling at low prices, resulting in a slight shift in price focus. Downstream demand is relatively calm, cautious entry into the market, and low transaction volume.

Supply side: The device operates unstably.

On the cost side, there are fluctuations within the upstream toluene range, and the overall performance of supply and demand is weak, which provides moderate support for TDI.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market supply and demand are weak, and downstream stocking intentions are not strong. It is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and operate in the short term, and close attention will be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton or 0.90% compared to the reference price of 7466 yuan/ton on December 6.

This week (12.06-12.12), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, experienced a narrow decline. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market remained stable and organized, with little change in the supply side and stable supply performance. By the middle of the week, the atmosphere in the n-butanol field was becoming increasingly strong, and downstream demand was cautious. Some factories in Shandong region narrowly lowered the shipment price of n-butanol by 100 yuan/ton. As of December 12th, the domestic n-butanol market price reference in Shandong region is around 7400-7500 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: At the beginning of the month, after the n-butanol plant resumed operation, the overall supply of n-butanol increased. As we entered this week, there was little adjustment in the market supply side, and the overall supply remained mainly loose.

In terms of demand: Currently, the enthusiasm for on-site procurement of n-butanol is average, and downstream users are mainly engaged in essential procurement.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ December 12th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7650-7750 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7550-7650 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-butanol market is relatively light, with average on-site inquiries. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly experience narrow adjustments, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

This week, the market price of acrylic acid has shown some volatility. From specific data, the price of acrylic acid has experienced multiple ups and downs this week, but the overall trend is stable with some increases. As of December 11th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6900.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (6862.50 yuan/ton). From the above data, it can be seen that the market price of acrylic acid has been fluctuating and rising this week.

2、 Factors affecting price fluctuations

The fluctuation of acrylic acid market prices is influenced by various factors, mainly including the following aspects:

1. Raw material cost: The production cost of acrylic acid is affected by the price of raw materials, and changes in the price of acrylic acid will directly affect the production cost of acrylic acid, thereby affecting the market price. As of December 11th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6858.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

2. Market demand: Acrylic acid is widely used in various fields such as coatings, adhesives, textiles, and papermaking. Changes in market demand will directly affect the market price of acrylic acid. When market demand increases, the price of acrylic acid usually rises; On the contrary, it will decrease.

3、 Industry forecast

1. Cost and Profit

Cost changes: The market price of raw material propylene is affected by the game of supply and demand, and multiple sets of propylene plants have released news, driving the price of propylene to stop falling and rise again. It is expected that the market will continue to consume the news of propylene plant shutdown next week, and demand side enterprises will continue to follow up on demand. The propylene market price is expected to be strong, which will further push up the cost of acrylic acid.

Profit situation: Due to the price increase of acrylic acid being higher than the cost increase, the gross profit of acrylic acid has increased. At present, the profit of acrylic acid has risen to the best profit level of this year. There is still an expectation of an increase in the cost of acrylic acid in the short term, and it is expected that the cost of acrylic acid will further rise next week.

2. Supply and demand relationship

Supply side: The restart of some acrylic acid units in factories next week is expected to increase market supply, but the overall supply growth rate is limited. At the same time, attention should be paid to the export source of newly invested equipment, which will have a certain impact on market supply.

On the demand side: With the decrease in climate temperature, the downstream SAP resin procurement demand is gradually increasing. However, with the traditional off-season approaching in other water reducing agents and other fields, the willingness to purchase has decreased. Overall, the downstream demand is not satisfactory, with a focus on following up on essential needs, but there is a certain expectation of improvement.

In summary, the market price of acrylic acid has been fluctuating and rising this week. Despite being influenced by various factors, the overall trend is stable with an upward trend. The future price changes of acrylic acid market will continue to be influenced by various factors such as raw material costs, market demand, production capacity and supply-demand relationship, as well as policies and regulations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton, which is 0.30% higher than the reference average price of 6660 yuan/ton on December 2nd.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 6983 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average of 6983 yuan/ton on December 2nd.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid has slightly increased, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid has remained stable. As of December 9th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6950 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6650-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market remained weak and stable. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is light, with manufacturers mainly offering high prices and downstream purchasing at low prices. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus price will remain stagnant and operate in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable and continues to operate at a high level. At present, the market supply is tight, and the shipment of phosphate ore is stable. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain firm in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, with the main focus on issuing preliminary orders. Downstream on-demand procurement, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. Wet process phosphoric acid supply is tight, and there is some support on the supply side.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. At present, the raw material yellow phosphorus market is stable but weak, with average cost support, and the phosphoric acid market is mainly on a wait-and-see basis. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly stabilize and operate smoothly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from December 2nd to 6th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8628 yuan/ton to 8585 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.50% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 10.70%. With the restart of the agent exchange device, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly increased. However, some of the new production capacity is outsourced for driving materials, and online sales are relatively high, leading to a price conscious attitude among suppliers. The supply-demand game continues, and the domestic BDO market is deadlocked.

On the supply side, the Inner Mongolia agent exchange unit has restarted, and other previously restarted units have increased their load operation. The industry load has increased to over 60%, and the supply of goods has increased. The main operators are cautious and cautious. However, the overall inventory pressure on the factory side is controllable, and some new production capacity such as Anhui and Shandong are expected to be purchased externally before production, and the online listing or bidding prices are on the high side, supporting the supplier’s intention to guard prices. The impact on the supply side is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is fluctuating, and the downstream PVC price has broken through the lowest point of the year. The sluggish downstream market has led to a downturn in market atmosphere. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to rise. As of 10:00 am on December 6th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2500 yuan/ton. The market for raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol has fluctuated and consolidated, with mixed impacts on BDO costs.

On the demand side, the overall load of downstream industries has increased, and the amount of raw material digestion is still acceptable. But most downstream profit losses are resistant to high raw material prices, maintaining contract follow-up and light spot trading. The impact of BDO demand is mixed.

Market forecast: Maintenance and restart of equipment are still in place, but supply side support is average. However, there is not much inventory pressure on site, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. The overall downstream demand is still acceptable. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will remain stagnant.

This week (12.1-12.5), the dichloromethane market saw a slight upward trend before stabilizing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 5th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 3095 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.51%.

The dynamic shutdown of enterprise equipment has driven the market atmosphere. The industry’s operating load level has decreased during the week, and suppliers have maintained a bullish sentiment. Enterprise inventory is low, and currently the market remains stable at a high level. Buyers are following up as needed, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened, with some holding a wait-and-see attitude. As of December 5th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 3080-3100 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: During the week, some enterprises resumed their equipment and underwent maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating load and weakened supply, which is favorable for the upward trend of dichloromethane prices.

In terms of raw materials, the methanol market is experiencing a downward trend, with strong willingness from companies to ship, a weak trading atmosphere in the market, and a sluggish spot market. As of December 5th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2482.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% from the beginning of the month. The market for liquid chlorine in Shandong has fallen from a high level, with stable production and low purchasing sentiment among downstream enterprises, resulting in pressure on shipments.

In terms of demand, the market price of refrigerant R32 remains stable at a high level, with little remaining annual quota. In December, the industry’s inspection and repair area expanded, and the tight supply atmosphere continued to spread, resulting in limited demand for dichloromethane. Other applications should maintain a strong demand for purchasing and restock at low prices.

Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the decline in raw materials will increase the profit margin of enterprises, and the maintenance of enterprise equipment will help to strengthen the market. The demand side urgently needs to purchase and expects low prices. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4591.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.

On November 29, 2024, the operating price of the port ethylene glycol spot contract was between 4615-4650 yuan/ton. The basis of the port ethylene glycol spot contract remained stable during the day, with early opening spot prices ranging from+46 to+48 this week. The basis slightly increased during the day, with little fluctuation. At noon, the basis was+48 to+50 this week,+48 to+51 next week, and+53 to+54 in December.

After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many goods, and market trading was relatively weak.

On November 29th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4200 to 4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On November 28, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was 536 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 546 US dollars/ton.

November ethylene glycol fundamentals: strong supply and weak demand

The domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol has increased month on month, and the operating rate has remained relatively high. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.

Domestic supply increases, squeezing import demand

The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol in ports is still relatively low, mainly due to the increase in domestic supply, which squeezes import demand.

From January to October 2024, the cumulative import of ethylene glycol was 5.425 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%. Among them, imports in October were 498600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%.

According to explicit inventory data from ports, as of November 28th, the total inventory of MEG ports in the main ports of East China was 508800 tons, a decrease of 51400 tons from last Thursday; It is reported that the main reason for the delay in unloading is due to weather conditions and the closure of the port. There is a strong expectation that ethylene glycol will gradually enter the trend of accumulating inventory in December.

Future expectations

The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have been at a low level recently, and the support from the cost side is relatively insufficient. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 25th to December 2nd, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9675 yuan/ton to 9725 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.52% during the cycle. This week, the domestic butadiene market has slightly rebounded. At the beginning of last week, the arrival situation in the East China region was not good, and the supply expectations in the spot market were tight. Encouraged by this news, the spot market quotations generally rose. However, downstream demand remains weak, with poor purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market. Overall, the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market rose first and then stabilized during the week, while Sinopec still implemented a price of 9800 yuan/ton. As of November 29th, the mainstream delivery price of butadiene in Shandong region is 9850 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market in November was mainly volatile, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month, and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market situation did not change much. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 9800 yuan/ton as of the 28th, a cumulative decrease of 2600 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 12400 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit is operating stably, and there are currently no plans to export goods today. Therefore, quotations are temporarily suspended.

The 30000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical is operating normally. Today, 400 tons were exported, with a bid price of 9200 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 9250 yuan/ton.

The 200000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin is operating stably, with normal export supply of 112 tons. The bidding bottom price is 9210 yuan/ton, and the transaction is 9320 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.12% from 15580 yuan/ton at the beginning of November. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, but overall it remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Within the month, the supply price of butadiene rubber has gradually decreased. As of November 29th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yangtze, Daqing, and Sichuan in East China is between 13150 and 13650 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak. Port cargo sources have continued to accumulate recently, and new facilities in Shandong have been put into operation. The market expects loose supply in the future, and the supply side is bearish. In terms of demand, the overall downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, providing essential support for the butadiene market. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market maintained a volatile downward trend in November. As of November 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4741 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24% from the beginning of the month.

Multiple PTA units have increased their load within the month, with ample supply in the spot market and lackluster downstream demand. PTA is mainly driven by rigid demand. The fluctuating geopolitical situation and wide fluctuations in international crude oil prices have provided a certain boost to PTA costs. Under the game of weak fundamentals and cost support, PTA prices have adjusted downward overall.

Looking at the future market, PTA processing fees were still acceptable in November, but PTA factory equipment maintenance intentions were low. As of the end of the month, the industry’s operating rate had increased to around 90%. There is currently no equipment maintenance plan in December, and a new production capacity of 2.7 million tons is planned to be put into operation in East China, so there will be sufficient supply of goods in the future. In addition, due to the seasonal off-season of downstream polyester, the demand for PTA may weaken, and the supply and demand structure is still weak, making it difficult to improve in the short term. The expectation of PTA inventory accumulation in the later stage is strong.

The international oil price market was mainly volatile in November, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month and a gradual decline in crude oil prices in the later period. Overall, the crude oil market remained relatively stable. On the one hand, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. On the other hand, crude oil supply remains tight, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, indicating continued supply constraints. However, the outlook for crude oil demand is not optimistic, which is suppressing the crude oil market price. Overall, the crude oil market price is mainly fluctuating widely.

At present, the adjustment of crude oil prices has limited driving guidance for the PX market. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, domestic supply will continue to operate at high load and stability. The annual inspection units of Ningbo Daxie and Fujian United Power Plant will be restarted in December. However, there is currently no clear expectation of maintenance for downstream PTA units, and some units are scheduled for restart and load increase. At the same time, Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million tons of PTA new production capacity is about to be put into operation, so there are signs of a slowdown in the domestic PX supply and demand contradiction.

The downstream polyester industry has maintained a production rate of 88%, and the market has gradually entered the traditional off-season of demand. In the later stage, there is a high probability of a decline in demand, and speculation and rigid demand buying are not good. In the terminal textile market, domestic weaving sales gradually weakened in November, while foreign trade partially rebounded. As the end of the month approaches, most weaving factories have indicated a significant downturn in the market, with an outstanding order volume of around one month. A few weaving factories have stated that they have sufficient orders to meet the end of the year. Foreign trade home textile orders and simulated silk orders from the Middle East have been issued in bulk, but weaving factories generally indicate that prices are low.

Business analysts believe that under the current processing fees, there are fewer plans for PTA follow-up equipment maintenance, and the overall supply in December is relatively loose. The downstream lacks confidence in the future market, and the enthusiasm for stocking up is average, with subsequent or urgent purchases being the main focus. The overall atmosphere is weak, and there is no obvious positive driving force in the market. Against the backdrop of intensified supply-demand contradictions, the PTA price trend will still be sluggish.