The price of acetic anhydride has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 14th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.86% compared to the price of 6400 yuan/ton on December 8th last weekend. The maintenance of acetic acid enterprises has ended, the supply of acetic acid has resumed, the price of acetic acid has decreased, and the cost of raw materials has decreased; Acetic anhydride enterprises have resumed production, coupled with limited transportation due to weather conditions, resulting in poor shipments. As a result, the price of acetic anhydride has dropped this week.

The price of acetic acid has dropped significantly this week

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of December 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 9.59% compared to the price of 3650 yuan/ton on December 8th. Multiple acetic acid companies have completed maintenance, domestic acetic acid companies have resumed production, and the supply of acetic acid has increased. Due to the impact of snowfall, transportation in the northwest region has been hindered, making it difficult for acetic acid manufacturers to ship, resulting in a significant drop in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to data analysts from Business Society, the price of acetic acid has plummeted, leading to a decrease in the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials; Acetic anhydride enterprises resumed production, and the supply of acetic anhydride increased; Downstream demand is limited, with primary focus on procurement for essential needs; The situation of acetic anhydride oversupply continues. In the future, with a decrease in costs and an oversupply of acetic anhydride, it is expected that acetic anhydride will experience a volatile decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly declined recently (12.1-12.12). On December 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6550 yuan/ton, while on December 1st, the benchmark price was 6660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65%.

International crude oil prices are weak, fluctuating, and toluene cost support is weak

Recently (12.1-12.12), international crude oil prices have been weakly volatile, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of December 12th, the WTI01 contract closed at $68.75 per barrel and settled at $68.61 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $73.27 per barrel and settled at $76.03 per barrel.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of early December, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 690%.

PX starts slightly increasing toluene to obtain essential support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

The external market price has fallen, and the pressure on the supply side of toluene continues to rise

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has decreased. As of December 12th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between $808-810 per ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure continues. As of early December, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 42000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are weak and volatile, with weak support for the cost of toluene; The downstream mixed blending of toluene and other industries have weak demand support, coupled with a continued increase in supply in the short term, and it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate weakly in the future.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the market for butadiene rubber has continued to be weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 12th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.12% from the beginning of the month at 12370 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has significantly declined. Downstream tire factories have seen a significant decrease in production compared to late November. The demand for butadiene rubber has weakened, coupled with a slight increase in supply, resulting in overall weak transactions in the butadiene rubber market and a decrease in the factory price of butadiene rubber. As of December 12th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 11600 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11200-11600 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the price of butadiene has significantly declined, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the price of butadiene was 8370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.27% from 9125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the natural rubber market has fluctuated and fallen, and the atmosphere in the rubber market is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the price was 12470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.66% from 12680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point in the cycle was 12300 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Recently (12.1-12.12), the production of all steel tires has slightly decreased, resulting in weak demand for rubber. It is understood that as of early December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society, the cost of butadiene rubber has significantly decreased and the demand has weakened during the off-season. Although Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance recently, the overall supply of butadiene rubber is still loose, and it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will be weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. On December 4th, the average market price in Shandong was 3683.33 yuan/ton, and on December 11th, the average market price was 3666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% and a decrease of 23.34% compared to the same period last year.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 844 yuan/ton. On December 11th, the average market price was around 824 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%, and a decrease of 25.63% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and the actual trading atmosphere has weakened compared to the previous period. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is cautious. The supply-demand game, taking into account the short-term or sustained consolidation of caustic soda prices, depends on downstream market demand.

Price trend

In early December, the domestic PA66 market saw a narrow decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic PA66 mixed benchmark price was 21100 yuan/ton on December 8th, with a price increase or decrease of -1.09% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

At the beginning of this month, PA66 took on the previous sideways trend and the spot price was at a high level. Overall, the recent market situation has seen a slight decrease in spot prices for various brands, a narrow decrease in production line operating rates, and an overall stable industry load of around 62%. The on-site supply of goods is moderate, the inventory position is low, and the pricing operation of the enterprise has been adjusted. The support from the supplier is average. Terminal enterprises still rely on maintaining production as their main source of goods, with on-site stocking centered around essential needs, and weak support from the demand side for spot goods. On the upstream side, domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine is tight, and prices have remained high due to the impact of previous price hikes by international large factories. The early bearish guidance in the adipic acid market resulted in a bearish price decline. At present, the main focus is on volatile operations, and the cost side’s support for the PA66 market is concentrated on hexamethylene diamine. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

In early December, the spot price of PA66 fell narrowly. The fluctuation and consolidation of raw material prices have provided moderate support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise has been reduced by 3%, and the inventory position is low. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 756 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 783 yuan/ton on December 7th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price increased by 2.66%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen this week. The manufacturer mainly supports the price, and the bidding price for ammonium sulfate has been increased. Downstream and some distributors are buying at the bottom to replenish the goods. However, international demand remains sluggish, and there is no positive trend on the demand side. As of December 7th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 780 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 750-820 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate, the price trend of ammonium sulfate has been on the rise recently. Downstream and distributors have a strong mentality of bottoming out, but the demand side is still weak and the upward space is limited. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a slight upward trend in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 6, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8366 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.73%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that as December approaches, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong, China has experienced an upward trend. On the third day of the month, the n-butanol market remained stable and consolidated, with stable downstream demand and a calm supply and demand side for n-butanol. Starting from the 4th, the market experienced a continuous upward trend, with the focus of the n-butanol market continuously moving upwards, with an increase of over 7% within three days. As of December 6th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8200-8600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the main factors supporting the upward trend of n-butanol market:

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream market of n-butanol is experiencing phased stocking, and the downstream demand side of n-butanol has been released. The improvement of the demand side supports the upward movement of the n-butanol market.

Supply side: Currently, the supply side of n-butanol is performing calmly, with overall stability as the main focus. The supply side provides normal support to the n-butanol market.

Basic aspects: Currently, the overall mentality of the upstream and downstream markets for n-butanol is improving, and the fundamentals provide certain support to the market.

Market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the inquiry atmosphere is relatively active. The transmission between the supply and demand of n-butanol is smooth, and the mentality of the industry is good. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market is mainly stable, medium to strong, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity analysis system, the domestic maleic anhydride market rebounded after a decline in November and then fell back at the end of the month. As of November 29th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7110.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 2.76% from 7312.00 yuan/ton on November 1st.

On November 29th, the commodity index of maleic anhydride was 66.98, a decrease of 0.47 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.75% from the highest point in the cycle of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 30.87% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

The downward trend of crude oil fluctuations provides limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market.

Hydrogenated benzene market falls, n-butane market fluctuates and rises

On the upstream side, the overall hydrogenation benzene market declined in November. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7366.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 5.96%. Crude oil and styrene prices have fallen, while the pure benzene market is under pressure and declining. The mainstream market for hydrogenated benzene is following suit. As of the 29th, the mainstream price range for hydrogenated benzene in Shandong region is between 6950 to 7050 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7000 yuan/ton. In November, the market for n-butane fluctuated and rose, with prices in Shandong around 5450-5550 yuan/ton as of November 29th.

The downward trend of unsaturated resin market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

In November, the main raw material styrene in the downstream unsaturated resin market of maleic anhydride overall declined, and the maleic anhydride market overall declined. The cost support for resin was limited, and the downstream demand for resin procurement was limited. Many merchants were actively shipping, resulting in an overall decline in the unsaturated resin market.

Maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current upstream hydrogenated benzene market for maleic anhydride has fallen, and the cost support for maleic anhydride is limited; The downstream unsaturated resin market is weak, with limited procurement and limited new orders from maleic anhydride factories. The fundamentals are weak, and factories are stabilizing their shipments. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Price trend

In November, the domestic ABS market trend tended to narrow consolidation, with spot prices of various brands stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11137.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.11% compared to the average price level in early November.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In November, the domestic ABS industry maintained a high load, with an average monthly operating rate of 75%, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the new equipment of Yinglishi Benling will be put into operation within the month, resulting in a steady increase in inventory. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the company’s losses continue. The supply pressure is relatively high, and the supply side continues to drag the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: In November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market rising first and then falling. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly and rose, while the cost support for acrylonitrile slightly strengthened; The main downstream operations are stable; The load of acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and there is basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market is supported by urgent inquiries, and prices have stabilized at high levels.

The domestic butadiene market fell at the end of the month after a stalemate in November. In the early stage, there was equipment maintenance in the northern region, causing a contraction in the market’s spot supply and a rebound in merchant quotations. In the second half of the month, some devices will restart and the market will be flooded with goods. The frequent news of parking and load reduction by terminal enterprises has increased the drag on demand, hindered transactions in the butadiene market, and lowered the focus of the market.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene gradually declined in November. The main reason for the decline is that international oil prices have been affected by Russia’s tariff policies and OPEC’s production reduction, resulting in weakened cost support. At present, the supply and demand of styrene are deadlocked, and transactions are slow. It is expected that the styrene market will experience short-term fluctuations and decline.

In terms of demand: This month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed average stocking enthusiasm and overall focused on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, and the impact on price trends is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The overall performance of ABS upstream materials in November was poor, with weak support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has generally maintained its early stage, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the supply-demand contradiction pattern of ABS market will be difficult to change in the short term, and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the toluene market continued to decline in November, but the decline narrowed compared to October. On November 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6900 yuan/ton, and on November 30th, it was 6660 yuan/ton. The decline in November was 3.48%, which is narrower than the 15.23% decline in October.

Crude oil has slightly decreased overall this month, and toluene cost support has weakened

In November, international crude oil prices continued to fluctuate and fall, weakening support for the cost of toluene. As of November 30th, the WTI01 contract closed at $75.60 per barrel, with a settlement of $75.96 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $80.37 per barrel and settled at $80.86 per barrel.

Slight increase in demand support for toluene in the production of xylene

In November, the price trend of para xylene declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%. In November, the supply of xylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was restarted, but some units were still undergoing maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot prices. The international crude oil price trend in November declined, and PX external prices fell due to this impact. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 961-963 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 986-988 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has slightly increased. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region has risen to nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has increased, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Domestic mixed blending demand enters the off-season and toluene demand support weakens

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

TDI started construction in November and remained stable, providing essential support for toluene demand

In November, the TDI market was weak and fluctuated downward, with little change in factory equipment during the month. TDI spot filling remained slow, and suppliers showed a strong intention to support the market. The trade market has raised prices several times according to the guidance of supplier information, but downstream demand has performed poorly. Purchasing in the market is mostly done according to demand, and the trading atmosphere is light. The confidence in the trade market is insufficient, and the shipment of holders is not smooth, resulting in a continuous decline in TDI prices.

The impact of toluene on the external market and supply is biased towards empty space

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has fallen. As of November 29, December, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 814-816 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of November 23, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 7.2%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 43000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons, a significant increase from early November.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; The supply of toluene increased in November; The demand for downstream mixed production has decreased, and industries such as PX and TDI have maintained basic demand support; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.