According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the toluene market continued to decline in November, but the decline narrowed compared to October. On November 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6900 yuan/ton, and on November 30th, it was 6660 yuan/ton. The decline in November was 3.48%, which is narrower than the 15.23% decline in October.

Crude oil has slightly decreased overall this month, and toluene cost support has weakened

In November, international crude oil prices continued to fluctuate and fall, weakening support for the cost of toluene. As of November 30th, the WTI01 contract closed at $75.60 per barrel, with a settlement of $75.96 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $80.37 per barrel and settled at $80.86 per barrel.

Slight increase in demand support for toluene in the production of xylene

In November, the price trend of para xylene declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%. In November, the supply of xylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was restarted, but some units were still undergoing maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot prices. The international crude oil price trend in November declined, and PX external prices fell due to this impact. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 961-963 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 986-988 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has slightly increased. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region has risen to nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has increased, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Domestic mixed blending demand enters the off-season and toluene demand support weakens

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

TDI started construction in November and remained stable, providing essential support for toluene demand

In November, the TDI market was weak and fluctuated downward, with little change in factory equipment during the month. TDI spot filling remained slow, and suppliers showed a strong intention to support the market. The trade market has raised prices several times according to the guidance of supplier information, but downstream demand has performed poorly. Purchasing in the market is mostly done according to demand, and the trading atmosphere is light. The confidence in the trade market is insufficient, and the shipment of holders is not smooth, resulting in a continuous decline in TDI prices.

The impact of toluene on the external market and supply is biased towards empty space

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has fallen. As of November 29, December, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 814-816 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of November 23, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 7.2%; The inventory of toluene in East China is 43000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China is 11000 tons, a significant increase from early November.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; The supply of toluene increased in November; The demand for downstream mixed production has decreased, and industries such as PX and TDI have maintained basic demand support; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.