1、 Price trend

The price of caprolactam rose in China this week, according to the data from the business news agency’s block list. The average ex factory price of caprolactam was 13466 yuan / ton on May 10 and 13766 yuan / ton on May 14, with a price increase of 2.23% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of May 14, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 15000 yuan / T, the 400000 T / a unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price 14700 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14700 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14700 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 13800 yuan / T, the production capacity of the factory is 300000 tons, and the plant is in normal production.

The price of raw material pure benzene stabilized after rising this week. On May 9, the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (average price 7720 yuan / ton). On the weekend, the price of pure benzene was 8150-8300 yuan / ton (average price 8230 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 510 yuan / ton or 6.61% compared with last week; It was 148.64% higher than that of the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Business community caprolactam analysts believe that at present due to raw material pure benzene rise, caprolactam market to good. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be higher in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene rose first and then fell this week, which was higher than that of last week. On May 9, the price of toluene was 5902 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 16), the price was 5986.2 yuan / ton, up 84.2 yuan / ton or 1.43% from last week; It was 74.67% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene rose first and then fell this week, and speculation continued in the first half of the week, with positive talks on the floor; In the second half of the week, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the weak gasoline blending market and other negative effects, coupled with the decrease of Sinopec’s listing price, the short market increased. In terms of external market, as of May 14, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 765 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton or 0.66% from May 7; The price of imported toluene in East China was 788 US dollars / ton, up 8 US dollars / ton, or 1.03%, from May 7.

In terms of crude oil, it was reported within the week that the colonial pipeline in the United States was forced to close due to hacker attacks, but the positive impact of the closure was short-lived, and the international oil price fell back after rising. The market is concerned about the impact of the Indian epidemic on demand recovery. On May 7, Brent rose 0.235 USD / barrel, or 0.34%; WTI rose 0.48 USD / barrel, or 0.74%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell, with domestic goods at 14533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.58% from last week and up 31.72% from the same period last year. The domestic market is weak and volatile, the attitude of the industry is bearish, the trading atmosphere is light, the downstream inquiry is low, the market price is different, and the delivery is not smooth.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on the PX market. As of May 14, closing prices in Asia were 828-830 USD / T FOB Korea and 846-848 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The crude oil market is full of uncertainty; The downstream follow-up is general, the downstream part of the device into the maintenance, demand weakened; But the outside news is still strong. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments jointly announced that from June 12, 2021, import consumption tax will be levied on some refined oil products. Toluene as gasoline blending raw material, or affected. Overall, toluene is expected to stop falling and rising. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.

According to the business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9233 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 9166 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.72%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-12500 yuan / ton; The market atmosphere of activated carbon is cold and the delivery is normal, and the transaction price is mainly discussed (the specifications and properties of activated carbon are complicated, and the price can not be generalized, please consult the manufacturer for details).

The main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon, such as coconut shell, fruit shell and charcoal, were supported by cost pressure, and the demand improved; Coal based carbon raw material cost support is weak. Downstream electricity, medicine and other demand industries are purchasing goods on a single basis. The market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is good, and the market of activated carbon is boosted by environmental protection policies.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon will continue to be weak, the atmosphere of wait-and-see in the downstream will be obvious, and the overall market transaction will be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10466 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 10733 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price increase of 2.55% and 37.02% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PS in China is rising, and the parking and maintenance of common trans benzene in East China are relatively concentrated, so the supply of this part of goods is tight. During the week, the overall rise was more than the fall, the parking and maintenance of PS devices in South China was not much, and the buying acceptance was low, which led to the market seller’s less support than that in East China. The overall fluctuation range of benzene and high-end materials is small. In the East China market, the total benzene revenue was 11000-12600 yuan / ton, with the low end up 250 yuan / ton and the high end up 50 yuan / ton.

After the festival, the price of ordinary trans benzene is on the rise. If the center of gravity of raw material styrene moves down, the profit will be reduced and the shipment will increase. However, the operating rate of the industry is at a low level in 2021, and the inventory has also declined to a certain extent. The supply pressure is not large as a whole, and the fluctuation space may be limited. In addition, the styrene port inventory or going to the warehouse in the middle and late May is the main. It is estimated that benzene penetration in East China market will be 10900-12600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The PS market is expected to be in a narrow range next week.

In the context of global economic recovery, the national development and Reform Commission has suspended the economic dialogue between China and Australia indefinitely, and the price of coal and iron has risen sharply. Meanwhile, the consumption of crude oil by industrial powers continues to increase, which makes the price of crude oil rise in a volatile way. From the macro level, the plasticizer industry chain has indeed gained good results. And in the early May, butanol products suddenly soared, what is the reason?

From the above figure, in early May, the price of butanol in Shandong Province was stabilized after a sharp fluctuation. As of May 12, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 16100 yuan / ton, which was up 3100 yuan / ton, up 23.85% compared with the price of 1 may (13000 yuan / ton of n-butanol ex factory average price); As of May 12, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was 16500 yuan / ton, which was up 2300 yuan / ton, up 16.20% compared with the price of May 1 (average ex factory price of ISO octyl alcohol is 14200 yuan / ton). Overall, after the festival, butanol prices soared, and there was a trend of rise.

After May 1 Labor Festival, Shandong butanol market rose significantly, with butanol rising by more than 20% and isooctanol by more than 15%. The reason for the sharp increase in market price is mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of butanol unit in the factory after saving, and the overall commencement rate of butanol industry has decreased. However, the downstream users of butyl acrylate, butyl acetate, DOP and DOTP just need to purchase raw materials, and the demand is stable to provide up support for butanol. The spot supply of butanol is tight, and the market is in short supply. Therefore, the price of the factory offer is rising all the way. At present, after the market price has risen to the high point, the market transaction on December is mainly small and medium-sized orders. The high price of raw materials has begun to appear wait-and-see attitude from users, even the downstream DOP has started to decline, but the market supply is still in tension.

Upstream raw materials rise, cost support is good

In early May, the factory price of propylene in Shandong Province stabilized after a small fluctuation. According to the price chart of the business association, the propylene price in Shandong continued to rise in the first ten days of April, fell sharply in the last ten days, and remained stable at the end of the month. During May 1, the bottom rebound began to rebound, the previous two days continued to stabilize, and began to rise continuously on the third. As of May 12, the average price of propylene factory in Shandong was 8323.00 yuan / ton, compared with the price of May 1 – -8054.91 yuan / ton, and the quotation increased by 268.09 yuan / T, up 3.33%. The current market transaction was between 8300 yuan and 8400 yuan / ton. In May, the US propylene price fell sharply on July, while the Asian propylene price began to rise slightly on June, which had little impact on the propylene market. At present, the propylene market has no pressure on inventory, some units are still under maintenance, and the supply is slightly tight. Overall, the upstream propylene price rose, which supported the butanol market better.

Supply side is insufficient, downstream passive follow-up

The supply of butanol is insufficient, and downstream products are passively rising. It is understood that the downstream DBP, DOP, DOTP, butyl acrylate and butyl acetate start to start a slight decline. From the perspective of isooctanol DOP industrial chain, the price of DOP has been rising passively, and the factory price of DOP rose sharply in early May. DOP quotation rose from 12475.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 13825.00 yuan / ton on May 12, up 1350 yuan / T, or 10.82%. The current market transaction is between 13800-14500 yuan / ton. The downstream DOP price has risen significantly, and downstream customers are more active in purchasing isooctanol. Although the downstream product start rate has declined slightly, the decline rate can not affect the situation of the tight supply of butanol.

The market will continue to rise after the supply of butanol is still tight

In mid May, Shandong butanol market trend or continued to rise slightly. Overall, the main reason for the price rise of butanol is the shutdown and maintenance of the unit and the insufficient supply of products. Although the price of butanol has reached the peak, it will take time for the plant to resume the plant, and the supply tension in the butanol market will continue in the short term. Therefore, analysts of isooctanol of business agency believe that in the middle of May, the domestic butanol market may fluctuate slightly, and the price may be lower in late May.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on May 1, the average ex factory price of 55 powdered monoammonium was 2533 yuan / ton, and on May 8, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2533 yuan / ton, which remained stable this week.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on May 1, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium was 3100 yuan / ton, and on May 8, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium was 3100 yuan / ton, which remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of map was stable, the domestic market atmosphere was weak, and the trading volume needed to be improved. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 2500-2600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is 2550-2650 yuan / ton. On Monday, the operating rate of ammonium enterprises was about 70%, down from last week.

This week, the price of DAP is stable, the domestic market is difficult to improve in the off-season, and enterprises and traders are still mainly exporting. In the case of good demand in foreign markets, the price of DAP is firm and the export volume is increasing. On Tuesday, the operating rate of ammonium enterprises was about 60%, higher than that of last week.

In terms of raw materials, the price of raw materials rose this week. The price of raw material phosphate rock rose, and the average reference price of 30% grade phosphate rock in mainstream areas of China was around 500 yuan / ton, which increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 4.17%, compared with the price on May 1.

3、 Future forecast

Business community ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the current ammonium phosphate market atmosphere is not good, the market is weak. The price of raw materials rises, and it is difficult for map to fall under the support of cost. DAP continues to focus on export, but domestic market is not good for the time being. It is expected that the price of map will be stable temporarily in the short term, while the price of DAP will be mainly stable.

Most of May is the off-season of terminal demand, and some production enterprises have plans to reduce the load. The price of domestic aggregate MDI market has dropped again. Up to now, the domestic aggregate MDI market is in the doldrums, and traders mainly offer more low prices. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of May 10, the domestic aggregate MDI market price was 17550 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 12.80% and a year-on-year increase of 46.25%.

As of May 10, domestic aggregate MDI market summary:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 17200-17300 yuan / ton 17000-17100 yuan / ton

South China About 17400 yuan / ton 17100-17200 yuan / ton

East China 17300-17400 yuan / ton 17000-17200 yuan / ton

As of May 10, domestic aggregate MDI traders’ market summary:

The main reason for the current market downturn is still poor demand and lack of motivation. The price weakness of domestic aggregate MDI market remains unchanged. International oil prices rose, but India’s severe epidemic restrained the rise. In terms of raw materials, the market prices of pure benzene and aniline rose sharply, which was favorable for the market orientation of polymer MDI. The downstream industry is mostly off-season demand buy gas in general, the price is difficult to pull in the short term.

For enterprises, Shanghai Lianheng MDI phase II plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid May for about 32 days, and is expected to resume production on June 16; It is located in Dongcao, Nanyang, Japan, with a capacity of 200000 tons / year. The overhaul started on May 6, and the overhaul time is about 45 days.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is mainly in the doldrums.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic POM market was positive in April, and the spot prices of various brands rose at a high level. As of May 1, the average offer price of the POM injection molding sample enterprises in the business community was about 15033.33 yuan / ton, up 2.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of POM upstream formaldehyde, the domestic formaldehyde market was weak at the beginning of April. The restart of some formaldehyde enterprises led to the conflict between the downstream and the high price source of goods. The market transaction was blocked, and the formaldehyde market fell into a wide consolidation. In the second half of the month, the 20 day environmental inspection in China came to an end, the downstream plate started to increase, and the demand for formaldehyde rose. Recently, the price of upstream methanol was increased, and formaldehyde was supported and rose. After the formaldehyde stock atmosphere warming, the market began to rise. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong may still rise in the near future.

The upstream price is gradually rising, and the cost side support of POM is gradually strengthened. At present, the domestic POM supply is still in short supply, and the enterprises such as Gung mine are still in the process of maintenance, and the load is not high. The reference price of Tianye Chemical M90 is about 14800 yuan / ton, which is for negotiation. Yuntianhua M90 ex factory reference price is about 16600 yuan / ton, firm offer for negotiation. The POM unit of Shenhua Ningmei coal works normally. The reference price of mc90 is about 14300 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. Compared with the previous period, there were certain increases. In April, the supply contraction brought about by enterprises’ burden reduction continued, and there was still an expanding trend. Traders on the floor are reluctant to sell and are willing to report high. Before the festival, there was no large quantity of goods preparation in the downstream, and after the festival, the purchasing enthusiasm gradually increased. At the same time, the overall domestic inventory is also declining.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency believe that the domestic POM market in April was stable and rose. The trend of formaldehyde and methanol in the upstream is positive, the cost of POM is strongly supported, and the tight supply pattern has not improved. The supply side is good for the market, the operation rate of downstream enterprises is high, and the consumption of POM is stable. But under the pressure of high cost, profit is compressed, after the festival, passive high follow-up, the attitude of resistance to high price goods gradually revealed. POM market is expected to continue to rise in the near future, but the rise will narrow.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6687.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6750.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.93%. The current price has increased by 0.93% month on month, and the current price has increased by 6.93% year on year.

Recently, the domestic potash market is rising. The potash market is in short supply, most of which are concentrated in the hands of large traders. They are reluctant to sell. The new orders in the market are limited, and there is no market in some areas. Potassium carbonate continued to rise. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6550-7000 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is at a high level: on May 7, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2400 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On May 7, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2650 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. In recent years, the potassium chloride market was consolidated at a high level, the cost support was good, the supply of potassium imported from the port was limited, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream was acceptable, so potassium carbonate was given support.

Potash analysts of business news agency believe that the domestic potash fertilizer market has maintained a stable trend in the near future, the new arrival of port goods is limited, and the supply of goods continues to be tight. It is expected that the price of potash will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash was stable for the time being this week. From the beginning to the end of this month, the average market price in East China was 1752 yuan / ton, up 22.52% year on year. On May 5, the commodity index of light soda ash was 89.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.77% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 42.28% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business society, soda ash in East China has been operating steadily and dynamically, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. The main market price of light soda ash is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton. The domestic soda ash market is stable before the festival. The downstream glass mainly purchases soda ash on demand, and has resistance to high price soda ash. Generally speaking, today’s soda ash price continues to be adjusted. The total inventory of soda ash is large, but there is still uneven distribution. Recently, the overall start-up situation of manufacturers has not changed much, and most manufacturers are actively shipping.

Upstream and demand: upstream: the national raw salt market is mainly consolidated, and the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. According to the monitoring of the downstream glass business agency, the price of glass rose this month. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month was 27.36 yuan / square meter, and the average price at the end of the month was 29.44 yuan / square meter. The price in this month rose by 7.6%. The price of petroleum coke in glass upstream rose; Soda prices were relatively stable, while LNG prices fell. Downstream in the real estate completion cycle, downstream traders and glass processing enterprises are more active in taking goods, and the order situation is acceptable. In the short term, there is no pressure on the inventory of the production enterprises, the glass market has good confidence, and the focus of transaction is relatively strong. However, the downstream glass is resistant to high price soda, and there is still a price game between the two sides.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in April 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 kind of commodities with zero rise and fall in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (8.33%) and PVC (3.17%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 6.85%) and caustic soda (- 6.63%). The average rise and fall this month was – 0.4%.

Business analysts believe that: upstream: the national raw salt market consolidation, the market atmosphere is stable. Salt enterprises have sufficient inventory, and most of the downstream enterprises purchase on demand. It is expected that the short-term raw salt market will be stable for the time being. The price of downstream glass is rising, but there is still resistance to high price soda. The wait-and-see mentality is strong, and most of them are purchased on demand. According to the comprehensive forecast, the short-term domestic soda price is dominated by the short-term consolidation operation, and the specific needs of the downstream market.