Price Trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market has a narrow fluctuation. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 13 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 135 0150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of aggregate MDI fell by 2.59% in the month, 23.99% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In August, domestic aggregated MDI prices fluctuated slightly, showing a first fall and then rise. Ring prices fell by 500-800 yuan/ton compared with July. At present, the market price is around 12600 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods and 13200 yuan/ton for Wanhua goods. Based on Wanhua’s early announcement of settlement price in early August, the overall market price declined slightly under cost support. In fact, the mentality of traders is not good throughout the month. Some middlemen are not lack of low-cost goods, so it is safe to drop bags. However, due to cost constraints, agents generally offer high prices, careful delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: this month, pure benzene first fell and then rose, the external market rose and domestic supply decreased to support the price rebound. At the beginning of this month, commodities fell as a whole and pure benzene weakened under the pressure of negative macroeconomic news, such as unoptimistic expectations of Sino-US negotiations and depreciation of the RMB. The sharp drop in crude oil also led to the weakening of the outer plate of pure benzene. As a result, the price of pure benzene has continued to decline. Downstream users wait for Sinopec to cut prices, wait and see, market turnover is weak. At the beginning of this month, there were still sporadic transactions of 5000 yuan/ton, but then driven by the low-price supply in Shandong Province, the market buying gravity dropped to 4900-4950 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 37 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%). There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: In August, stimulated by the release of good news from supplier factories, market prices were supported by this “fairy spirit” and survived through August. Supplier factories are still in a good market in September, but demand side is hard to change at present. Business associations aggregate MDI analysts expect that short-term aggregate MDI market prices will be stable, and look forward to the price guidelines of Koth founder and Basf supplier policies and settlement prices at the beginning of the month.

On September 2, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 95.55, down 1.82 points from yesterday, down 31.96% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 78.30% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline, up to the present domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 530 yuan/ton, the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid spot source in the field at present, but in the near future, there is no moving goods in the field. Recently, due to poor downstream demand, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers Continuous price cuts, hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to fall. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices continue to decline, spot supply is sufficient, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined.

The price of fluorite in the upstream was slightly lower. As of the 2nd day, the price of fluorite was 2981.25 yuan/ton. The low price of raw materials in the upstream had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market was affected by the lower price of raw materials fluorite. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has dropped to 14,000-15,000 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline.

I. Overall Trend

This week (8.26-8.30) polyethylene showed a continued decline, in which the average price of LDPE 2426H in East China monitored by business associations was about 8225 yuan/ton; the average price of HDPE 5000S was about 8316.67 yuan/ton; and the average price of LLDPE 7042 was about 7333.33 yuan/ton. As of August 30, the price of HDPE in East China showed a steady trend this week, and the prices of LDPE and LLDPE showed a continuous downward trend this week. Linear futures continued to decline this week, falling sharply on the 29th, with 01 positions hitting a record high, closing at 1011,980,000 hands, and prices hit a new low in the past decade, which significantly depressed the mindset of the operators. At the end of the month, the market cleared warehouses actively and digested stocks. Businessmen had a pessimistic mentality. Although Petrochemical had a strong intention to bid up at the end of the month, part of the supply chain was tighter, and the mindset of the traders was pessimistic. The downstream factories are mainly in need of goods. It is difficult to deal in the spot market and the trading atmosphere is weak.

II. Market Analysis

Upstream: Oil prices rose steadily this week, OPEC’s implementation effect was obvious, the U.S. crude oil inventory fell more than expected is the main positive factor, but market worries about trade risks and U.S. crude oil production to maintain a high level to the oil market negative. On Monday (August 26), the October futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $53.64 per barrel, down $0.53 from the previous trading day, trading range of $52.98-55.25; the October futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $58.70 per barrel, down $0.64 from the previous trading day, trading range of $58.24-60.17. On Thursday (August 29), the October futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $56.71 a barrel, up $0.93 from the previous trading day, trading range of $55.43-56.89; the October futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $61.08 a barrel, up $0.59 from the previous trading day, trading range of $59.98-61.19.

Import and Export: In July 2019, PE imported about 1.3924 million tons. Among them, LLDPE imports 452,400 tons; HDPE imports 654,000 tons; LDPE imports 286,000 tons, and PE exports in July 2019 totaled 286,600 tons.

Manufacturer dynamics: PE agricultural film demand growth this week is slow, start-up is still at a low level, the overall start-up rate of enterprises is about 3-40%, start-up slightly increased. The overall start-up rate of large and medium-sized plastic film enterprises is about 3-7%, some small and medium-sized enterprises produce in stages, the demand for plastic film has been followed up slightly, some large factories maintain low production, the start-up rate varies from 1-50%, and other plastic film enterprises shut down mainly.

Futures trend: According to the monitoring of business associations, on August 30, polyethylene futures L2001 main contract opening price 7080, the highest price 7140, the lowest price 7055, the closing price 7135, the pre-settlement price 7140, the settlement price 7100, down 5, 0.07%, turnover 627158, position 974928, daily increment warehouse-36170. (Quote unit: yuan/ton)

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are five kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 33rd week of 2019 (8.19-8.23). The top three commodities are ABS (1.57%), PS (1.41%) and PC (1.24%). There are 10 kinds of products with ring-to-ring ratio declining. The products with the first three declining ranges are cis-butadiene rubber (-2.27%), styrene-butadiene rubber (-1.85%) and natural rubber (-1.29%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.28%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Looking forward to the future market, business analysts believe that the current international oil prices continue to rise, which has a certain support for the market. Petrochemical stocks continued to fall, and some of the plant manufacturers are still in a state of repair, to a certain extent, alleviate supply pressure. The downstream peak season starts slowly, but the reserve potential still exists, and there is a certain recovery space for later demand. However, linear futures have fallen successively to a new low, which has obviously depressed the operators. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by short-term or weak consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market price of n-propanol remained stable after a small overall correction on August 29. At present, the mainstream quotation of domestic n-propanol distributors is around 1100-11400 yuan/ton, and that of imported n-propanol from Dalian, Taiwan is around 1160 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market of n-propanol continued to run steadily, and some distributors made a small reduction in their quotations. Up to now, according to the quotations from mainstream regions, the average price of domestic n-propanol distributors is around 11,000 yuan/ton, which is about 67 yuan/ton higher than that of August 22, which is the same as that of August 15. At present, Shandong Fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 10,800 yuan/ton of domestic n-propanol (including tax), Shanghai Lianyi Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 11,400 yuan/ton of domestic n-propanol (including tax), and Dalian, Taiwan, imports 16,500 yuan/ton of barreled n-propanol.

Industry chain: This week, the propylene oxide market remained stable after the overall stop of decline. A few distributors’quotations continued to fall. Most factories’ quotations were stable, or some factories’quotations rose slightly. The terminal demand of propylene oxide Market rebounded, and the market expectations were good.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the business association’s forecast: September is coming, the n-propanol market is expected to rise slightly and run. The specific market trend is also closely related to the supply and demand of products upstream and downstream as well as the output.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’list, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly in August and the price fell. As of August 28, the average price of viscous injection grade mainstream offer in PA66 was about 24450.00 yuan/ton, which was 5.96% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

PA66 upstream adipic acid market rebounded at the end of the month, prices rebounded and soared. In August, the market atmosphere was slightly stalemate, the market performance was weak and the turnover was general. Distributors actively shipped mainly, and the market remained weak and shocky. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, plain enthusiasm for stockpiling, and mainly buys on demand. Social inventory showed some pressure and shipment strength slightly declined. On the supply side, the market supply is stable, partly showing excessive supply. Some distributors in eastern China said that the inventory pressure was high, the plant start-up rate was high, and the market inventory and manufacturer Inventory were rising. It is expected that adipic acid market will continue to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the short term.

Spot supply of PA66 market is abundant this month, downstream factories just need to take goods, demand has not improved and continued to weaken. Market buy gas is insufficient, business people have a heavy wait-and-see mentality, and most of the transactions are flexible and detailed. In the mid-term, the news of US tariff postponement was positive, and the terminal market warmed slightly, with limited impact on the PA66 market as a whole. In addition, Qixiang announced in July that the capacity expansion of adiponitrile, an important intermediate in the production of PA66 engineering plastics in China, has become a foregone conclusion, and the cost of PA66 will be gradually reduced by the support of adiponitrile in the macro future. It is expected that China’s PA66 market will be a long-term impact. Under the background of imbalance between supply and demand, it added negative factors in terms of cost and face, and the market trend was difficult. In August, domestic PA66 fell weakly.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA66 market fell weakly in August. At present, the spot supply is abundant in the field, and the enthusiasm of downstream stock is not high, so the strategy of just taking goods is adopted. The market is short of buying gas, the traders are passive and wait-and-see, and the transactions are many facts and detailed. In the mid-term, Sino-US trade frictions eased off and had little impact on PA66 prices. And the cost of adipic acid from this month’s support is not good, it is expected that the near future PA66 disk will continue to be weak finishing.

A Survey of the Price Trend of Aluminum Ingot in August

Domestic aluminium ingot prices rose steadily in August. According to data from business associations, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) as of August 27 was 14290 yuan/ton, which was 2.90% higher than the average market price of 13866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (August 1).

It is reported that in mid-August, the market was affected by Typhoon Lichma. The market predicted that the production capacity of electrolytic aluminium in Shandong would decrease (Weiqiao 105,000 tons of electrolytic aluminium capacity was forced to stop production voluntarily). The Xinjian Xinfa accident was superimposed. The market information factors were obvious, the price of aluminium ingots increased substantially, and the current high-level shocks were running.

A Survey of Import and Export Data of Aluminum in July

According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in July 2019, the export volume of unwrought rolled aluminium (including aluminium alloy) in China was 39582.00 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 366582.00 tons, a decrease of 8.40% and a cumulative increase of 18.30%.

In July 2019, China’s total exports of aluminium foil under five tax codes totaled 113,100 tons, and in June, 115,900 tons, a drop of 2.39% compared with the previous year’s. Last July, China’s exports of aluminium foil totaled 109,700 tons, up by 3.08% compared with the previous year.

In July 2019, China imported 33118.00 tons of aluminium materials, with a cumulative import of 197961.00 tons, a decrease of 0.60% and a cumulative decrease of 16.30%.

In July 2019, China imported 20 million tons of alumina, a cumulative import of 52 million tons, an increase of 3286.00% and a cumulative increase of 44.80%.

In July 2019, the import volume of unwrought rolled aluminium (including aluminium alloy) was 25273.00 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 116300.00 tons, an increase of 113.90% and a cumulative increase of 57.60%.

In July 2019, the export volume of unwrought rolled aluminium (including aluminium alloy) in China was 39582.00 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 366582.00 tons, a decrease of 8.40% and an increase of 18.30%.

Summary of aluminium production in July

According to data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), the global output of raw aluminium (excluding China) in July was 2.205 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons over June, and a decrease of 5,000 tons over the same period last year. China’s raw aluminium production in July is estimated at 3.05 million tons, and revised in June to 2.973 million tons.

Limited new capacity in the second half of the year

In terms of new capacity, it is estimated that in the second half of 2019, the new capacity will be 250,000 tons in Shanxi, 250,000 tons in Xingren, Guizhou, 200,000 tons in 100 mines, totaling 700,000 tons; Guangyuan and Shenhuo will put into operation in October-November.

Future market forecast

The trend of social inventory decline is good, the price of raw material alumina basically hit the bottom, and the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminium are good. It is expected that the recent high-level oscillation will be the main operation, and in the later period, the actual demand changes downstream will be paid attention to.

On August 25, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 56.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.61% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 17.58% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market has risen, the price of phthalic anhydride market in eastern China has risen slightly, downstream factories are still in need of purchasing, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5800-6000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5500 yuan/ton in the phthalic anhydride market in North China. Mainstream quotation ranges from 5700 to 5900 yuan/ton. Market price has risen slightly. Some manufacturers have raised their ex-factory price. Downstream construction is not high. Purchase on demand is the main method. Watching mentality is strong. Domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable. On-site phthalic anhydride supply is normal. Phthalic anhydride price trend has increased slightly.

In the near future, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6000 yuan/ton. The import market of phthalic anhydride in the port area has fallen, the quotation is stable, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is general, the port stock is low, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride outside market has fallen concussively, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, the factual details are discussed in detail, Market prices remain low and volatile. DOP prices in the downstream rose, isooctanol prices rose, and DOP costs rose. DOP prices rose, DOP downstream demand shocks remained stable, customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, downstream PVC market shocks remained stable, DOP market mainstream transaction price of about 7450 yuan/ton, downstream prices rose, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week, and the average price of cryolite market was stable at about 6333.33 yuan/ton during the week, down 3.62% from the same period last year. On August 23, the cryolite commodity index was 76.92, unchanged from yesterday, down 24.00% from the cyclical peak of 101.21 points (2011-10-31), and up 15.93% from the lowest point of 66.35 on September 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cryolite prices have been running steadily this week, and there is no obvious price adjustment for manufacturers. Up to 23 days, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7200 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the price of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite slightly decreased. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic market was about 3075.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price of domestic market was about 3062.50 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, up 14.27% year-on-year. The price trend of fluorite in the upstream slightly declined, mainly due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand. In recent years, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has declined. At the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, the market of fluorite on-site is poor. In addition, the operating rate of fluorite devices on-site remains high, but the downstream demand situation is general. Spot supply of fluorite is abundant, and the price of fluorite on-site has a downward trend. As for downstream electrolytic aluminium, the price of aluminium has been on the upstream trend this week. At the beginning of the week, the price remained around 14253.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was about 14323.33 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 25 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector in the 33-week (8.19-8.23) rise-fall list of commodity prices in 2019, of which more than 5% increase is 3.6% of the monitored commodities in the plate; the first three commodities are acetic acid (8.90%), crude benzene (7.83%) and aniline (5.17%). There are 30 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-7.50%), dichloromethane (-7.35%) and sulfur (-5.48%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.03%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products from business associations believe that the current multi-dimensional and stable quotations from cryolite manufacturers are the main ones. The equipment is running normally, the stock is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. The market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period, with specific attention to market demand.

On August 22, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 22nd. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 21, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 769-771 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 768-790 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a certain impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of domestic p-xylene is temporarily stable.

On August 21, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to $55.68 per barrel, a decline of $0.45. Brent crude oil futures rose to $60.30 per barrel, an increase of $0.27. The EIA crude oil inventory in the week of August 16 in the United States decreased by 2732,000 barrels, and the trend of crude oil prices declined, bringing about a certain degree of downstream petrochemical products. The market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable due to the negative impact. Recently, the textile industry has slightly declined, PTA price has slightly declined on the 22nd. The average price in East China is raised near 5200-5300 yuan/ton. By the 21st day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 91.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87.5%, and the PTA social stock is estimated to be about 1.4 million tons. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, the total price in August is about 1.4 million tons. The body maintains a small depot rhythm. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounts for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has space to continue to replenish. Towards the traditional sales season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” for textiles, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in the procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the short term.

On August 21, the fluorite commodity index was 107.46, down 0.22 points from yesterday, down 15.71% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 118.37% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite has declined. The average price of domestic fluorite is 3068.75 yuan/ton as of 21 days. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants started to operate normally, fluorite supply was sufficient, hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream were lower recently. For the fluorite market, the price of fluorite market was purchased on demand, and the price of fluorite market was lower. The trend is declining. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream receipt is poor, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of 21 th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2900-3200 yuan/ton.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite maintained a low trend. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11 430 yuan/ton as of the 21st day. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only declined but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 16500-18000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. At the end of the peak season, the demand downstream of the terminal decreases but does not increase. The price affected by the fluorite market is slightly lower.

Overall, the downstream industry is slightly lower, coupled with sufficient supply of fluorite market, the downstream refrigerant industry demand is not good, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the price of fluorite market may be slightly lower.