According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market experienced a slight decline in July 2025, with an average price of 16995 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16725 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.59%.
On July 31st, the Business Society Lead Index was 101.79, a decrease of 0.48 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.04% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and an increase of 36.39% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall.
The market trend showed a differentiated trend in the middle of the month. In the first half of the month, the profit of the recycled lead industry was restored, and the expectation of increasing production for enterprises continued to strengthen. In this context, the Shanghai lead price began to decline from a high of 17300 yuan/ton and gained cost support around 16800 yuan/ton. However, due to the off-season of consumption and weak market demand, although the Shanghai lead price rebounded in the future, it failed to effectively break through the integer threshold of 17000 yuan/ton.
supply end
Kazakhstan has implemented a policy to completely prohibit the export of unprocessed refined lead in any form, which has resulted in a continuous tight supply of lead concentrate and waste batteries, providing strong support for the cost side of lead. Currently, the prices of sulfuric acid and silver remain high, which affects the production enthusiasm of primary lead refineries. However, the old production line in Yuguang is undergoing maintenance, and Jinli has also implemented production reduction measures, but these adjustments are still difficult to offset the negative impact of the off-season consumption. At the same time, the recovery of the production of recycled lead is relatively slow, and the price difference between refined and waste materials occasionally shows an inverted phenomenon, leading downstream enterprises to prefer purchasing raw lead with lower prices. With the development of this trend, the number of lead storage facilities is gradually increasing, which also reflects the weak situation of the current consumer market.
demand side
Next month is traditionally the peak season for consumption, but the current market is facing many unfavorable factors. The Middle East region has launched an anti-dumping investigation against China’s lead-acid batteries, and measures to impose high tariffs have been implemented; At the same time, the results of the third round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States have not yet been announced, and the United States has imposed tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, which indirectly affects China’s battery exports; In addition, the domestic policy of exchanging old for new has led to the early release of some consumption, resulting in a situation of pre consumption. Taking all these factors into consideration, the market’s concern that this year’s peak consumption season may not meet expectations is increasing.
Prediction of future trends
The current fundamentals of the lead market are showing signs of improvement and slight recovery, but the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent and overall is relatively limited. If the lead price wants to rebound, its height largely depends on the actual performance of the consumer side. Currently, the market is waiting for inventory conditions to verify the degree of realization during the peak consumption season. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the future.