According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the average selling price of PET is 6067 yuan/ton. In July, the price of polyester bottle chips showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising. At the beginning of the month, it continued to decline weakly. From July 1st to 12th, the price fell from 6067 yuan/ton to 5960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76%. Starting from mid week, the price first stabilized and then increased. From July 14th to 18th, it rose from 5985 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6035 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.84%. At the end of the month, due to factors such as rising raw material prices, prices continued to rise. On July 30th, some brands quoted prices such as Sanfangxiang at 6010 yuan/ton and Yisheng at 6080 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
1. Cost side: Cost fluctuations dominate prices
The fluctuation of crude oil prices has a significant impact on polyester bottle chips. At the beginning of the month, crude oil prices fell due to OPEC+production expectations and uncertainty about US tariff policies, leading to a decline in Brent crude oil prices. This dragged PTA spot prices down to 4870 yuan/ton, ethylene glycol fell below 4400 yuan/ton, and the cost support for polyester bottle flakes weakened, causing prices to decline. After the middle of the month, crude oil and polyester raw materials rose, such as the slight increase in polyester bottle prices driven by the rise in crude oil on July 18th. On the 25th, influenced by macroeconomic positive news, crude oil prices rose and cost support was relatively strong, leading to an increase in PET market prices.
2. Supply side: reduced production and weakened capacity expansion
The reduction in production by major polyester bottle manufacturers has provided support for prices. The joint production reduction of 20% by top enterprises such as Wankai and Yisheng has gradually been implemented, with weekly output dropping to 327000 tons and capacity utilization rate dropping to 71.5%. Supply contraction has tightened market liquidity, which has to some extent supported price increases.
3. Demand side: Weak demand throughout the month
On the demand side: Although July to September is the peak season for soft drink consumption, the inventory of end products remains high. For example, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises has reached 23.64 days, and the soft drink operating rate remains at 80% -90%. The replenishment of inventory is only sporadic small orders, with no upward momentum. The performance on the demand side is relatively flat, which limits the price increase of polyester bottle chips.
Future prospects
Overall, the third quarter is the peak season for downstream soft drink consumption, coupled with active summer travel and performance economy, and terminal demand is expected to rebound. At the same time, the current industry processing fees are at a historical low, and mainstream factories are continuing to reduce production. The supply side is relatively tight. If demand can continue to be released to digest existing inventory, the short-term price of polyester bottle chips is expected to fluctuate upwards.