According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from June 2nd to 6th, the average price of BDO in China increased from 8107 yuan/ton to 8185 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.97% during the period, a month on month increase of 2.96%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.41%. The pre maintenance equipment has not been restarted yet, and some devices have reduced load, changed agents or unexpectedly stopped, resulting in tight market supply; And the online auction was sold at a premium, and the holding manufacturers actively supported the market by offering their products. Downstream demand has increased, but bargaining sentiment still exists under cost pressure, and the market’s center of gravity has limited growth.
On the supply side, the early maintenance equipment has not yet restarted, while the Xinjiang unit has reduced its acetylene maintenance load, Huaheng’s one set of equipment has been replaced, and the Inner Mongolia unit has stopped due to unexpected equipment failures. The market supply of goods has once again decreased, and the industry is in an effective state of destocking. Most suppliers are selling without pressure, and some factories are temporarily not accepting orders due to tight supply. Some have raised their offers actively to support the market. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.
On the cost side, the sudden increase in supply of raw material calcium carbide has become the main factor causing the decline in calcium carbide prices. The domestic methanol market is running weakly. As of 10:00 am on June 6th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2315 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol is influenced by bearish factors on the BDO cost side.
On the demand side, the downstream PBT industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly increased, while other downstream loads have remained unchanged, resulting in an overall increase in raw material digestion. However, the follow-up of terminal demand is not smooth, and downstream industries, except for THF, GBL, and NMP, are still operating in a stalemate with the rise of raw materials. Most downstream industries remain in a loss making state, resulting in weak acceptance of high raw material prices. The ongoing supply-demand negotiation game has led to limited growth and actual order implementation in the BDO market. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future forecast, the supply of goods in the BDO market is still tight, while downstream demand is performing well, and the industry’s destocking situation continues, with prices expected to continue to rise. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is fluctuating.