According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke fluctuated downward in May. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2225.00 yuan/ton on May 31 and 2262.50 yuan/ton on May 1, with a monthly decline of 1.66%.
Cost wise: The crude oil market fell first and then rose in May. In early May, the crude oil market experienced a significant decline, mainly due to OPEC+increasing production beyond expectations, which was negative for international oil prices and led to a sharp decline in the crude oil market. In the later stage, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country and the renewed tension in the Middle East, the tariff issues between China and the United States eased, and international oil prices rose. Overall, international oil prices fluctuated and rose in May
Supply side: In early May, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and downstream purchases were cautious when entering the market. Refinery shipments were hindered, and the price of petroleum coke continued to decline; In mid May, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was good, downstream procurement was active, and coupled with low inventory of petroleum coke in some refineries, the price of petroleum coke continued to rise; In late May, the shipment of petroleum coke from local refineries was average, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream at the end of the month, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The transaction of petroleum coke at the port in May was average, with stable prices as the main factor, and downstream enterprises maintained their essential procurement.
On the demand side: In May, the domestic silicon metal market continued to show a weak supply-demand situation. During the month, the overall operating rate of the silicon metal market was low, and due to supply pressure, some silicon companies had extremely low operating volumes. The overall support provided by the supply side to the silicon metal market was weak. The overall recovery of downstream demand market is slow, with cautious demand performance. The demand side has limited procurement of raw materials, and the support provided by the demand side to the market is also insufficient. The demand for petroleum coke market in the silicon industry still exists.
In May, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke remained stable, but downstream procurement enthusiasm for medium high sulfur calcined coke was poor, and enterprise shipments were slightly weak, leading to a consolidation of the calcined coke market.
The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in June is expected to increase by about 200000 tons, and the effective operating capacity is expected to climb to over 44 million tons, with a slight increase in production. In terms of overseas imports, the import volume is expected to remain relatively high, and the overall supply is showing an increasing trend, which will put some pressure on aluminum prices. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.
Market forecast: Currently, the domestic supply of petroleum coke is relatively sufficient, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is limited. It is expected that the recent consolidation of the petroleum coke market will be the main trend.